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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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26 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

My best guess for Mass.

massachusetts-road-map.gif

hmm... It's certainly entertaining :)   however...I don't honestly know where you are getting the melted equivalent QPF in interior N/central purple region for 30"  

Even at 12::1 that's pushing the tin a bit.  I suppose we could flat out over perform QPF ...and one would be right by meso banding.  I mean, if we have a general layout for say 1.8" liq equiv, and then a band with thunder sends two level yellow stationary for 3.5 hours, you're going to over achieve in that band.  

I won't say it can't happen, ...I am just not sure it is "likely" enough to support 30.   I don't have problem with 18 or 20" as the upper bounds.  That all said, ... yeah, at some point if we wanna be 'greats' in this prognostic antics ...we have to take chances and put out the fringe calls, and seeing as there is enough variables at least within reach... it's unclear how 'fringed' 24 to 30" really is. 

Personally, I'd go 16" for the girth of the interior, and put the hills of Worcester and the plateau region out near Barre ... up through the Monads for 22" or so...  but would literally say to the public, some of the latest guidance suggests these numbers could even be higher - I think that ending statement 'tints' enough to rescue one's efforts if people wake up to a GFS blue dawn cryo wonderland

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Read my mind.

I don't feel comfortable forecasting over 20" anywhere because they heavy stuff is out by like 3am, but won't be shocked to see someone pull 2'.

30" I'd say is like 1/4 shot.

Yeah the systme does slow down a bit, but still not as much as I'd like....the one change in the past 24 hours (well the Euro never really waivered) is that all guidance keeps us out of the dryslot...we just go to town and also get the backend CCB/deformation stuff that tries to prolong the snow. So given that...I can see some 20-burgers where the banding sets up...but I don't want to forecast widespread 18"+.

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DomNH

DomNH

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Posted
Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Read my mind.

I don't feel comfortable forecasting over 20" anywhere because they heavy stuff is out by like 3am, but won't be shocked to see someone pull 2'.

30" I'd say is like 1/4 shot.

I agree. I like a general 12-20'' for the interior. I really like your backyard for the best stuff out of the CCB. With these SE shifts I wouldn't be shocked if I'm stuck in the CCB/deform exhaust. 

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