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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Did not like the look of the Euro down here. If it gets any later we'll be enjoying a chilly nw wind and veiled sunshine Wednesday.

Fwiw, I see nothing on any of the ensembles that would suggest a correction east.

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted
Just now, JC-CT said:

Fwiw, I see nothing on any of the ensembles that would suggest a correction east.

Yeah, I actually just saw the EPS. Really nice looking, although we've entered the period where we weigh the ops more. I still like the Jan '11 track idea of sending it over the elbow.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Yeah, I actually just saw the EPS. Really nice looking, although we've entered the period where we weigh the ops more. I still like the Jan '11 track idea of sending it over the elbow.

I agree about the OP, but we still should take note when it is on the east side of major guidance and also on the far eastern edge of its own ensembles. It just tells us a correction east is that much less likely. I think you are good in this one tbh.

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted
Just now, JC-CT said:

I agree about the OP, but we still should take note when it is on the east side of major guidance and also on the far eastern edge of its own ensembles. It just tells us a correction east is that much less likely. I think you are good in this one tbh.

Yeah, I agree. I had a bit of a knee jerk reaction seeing some of the comments before I looked at things more closely. Really nice omega/high lapse rates cross CT on Wednesday with this thing. I think we make out just fine. Almost all guidance and EPS are west of the Euro op. 

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Yeah, I agree. I had a bit of a knee jerk reaction seeing some of the comments before I looked at things more closely. Really nice omega/high lapse rates cross CT on Wednesday with this thing. I think we make out just fine. Almost all guidance and EPS are west of the Euro op. 

Yup.

It will down to when the northern stream wants to drop in. It’s obv not that simple but we pretty much have all the major players in place. Like, it’s not whiffing and it’s not running up the hudson....but if no stream involvement, regardless of track, then you end up with a weaker disjointed 6-10” type of system. 

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, tunafish said:

 

Exactly, coast needs the Euro to be right otherwise taint will limit our totals big time.  Would love to see the other guidance today tick east.

 There is not much in the guidance leaning that way as of now.   Ray was hinting at the possibility of a later phase so I guess that could help some coastal folks if it happens.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

Man ... what I would give to see the blend of the last three NAM cycles verify, 18z, 00z and 06z since Sunday afternoon through this morning. 

Those mechanics are really about as top tier ceiling as can be...  I guess one could be crazed enough to want it -.5 C less through the thermal plumb but ... mm, isothermal around -.5 at max deposition rates, up to just beneath the snow growth part of the sounding where in said signma levels there's what ?  40 to 50 units of UVM for almost nine straight hours...?  Yeah, that prooooobably is rare enough to appreciate the significance of this thing as a snow producer as it is...
 
I read somewhere ... I have a dim memory (anyways but...) that the NAM is set to be yanked?  As in, decommissioned.  That may be so... hell, it may even be warranted.  But, we shall miss these marvelous eye-popping cinemas of this particular model's inimitable panache when it comes to assessing these scenarios that approach perfection like that.  It seems to almost "spike" that complexion?  Like, it's not good enough that the Global models have a solid impact event, the NAM sees this sort of set up... and its always gotta take it to the next level ... and then some?  If I'm just counting synoptic chart intervals, that looks like 26" at KBED to KORH .. that's gotta be wrong, right? 
 
Here's the thing ... conservatism, to mention common f'n decency, argues less.  Okay.  However, I don't know if this is merely over-proficiency with the NAM.  20" of snow at 10::1 is very difficult for the atmosphere to pull off, and thus ...should be rare when understanding that difficulty by definition. 
 
Excluding the water content for a moment:  A ... it's happened before. In January 19th or 20th ...1978, there was a almost that much snow in 12 hours!  December, 10th 2005, we had 15" in metro-west in three to four hours, with lightning and thunder. And who can forget the December 23rd "Snow Bomb" storm of 1997 ...  16" fell in four hours was the common result, and to this day, caused the lowest visibility that I have ever seen in my life. About 10 feet with zippo exaggeration... period!.. And, as much as 21" felled over the max spots in that one, too, so someone may have really been bona fide 0 eye sight. 
 
It's not like what the NAM is saying is so rare as to be obscene.  It's just that it's not that frequent. I suppose its the juxtaposition with the other guidance that range less that should give us pause and consternation and so forth... However, in each on of the cases I just cited above with the exception of 1978, the NAM or it's ancestor led the way .. just something to keep in mind. 
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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 There is not much in the guidance leaning that way as of now.   Ray was hinting at the possibility of a later phase so I guess that could help some coastal folks if it happens.

 

13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 If it tucks closer at 12z you will want to be at pit one.

 

I think we'll still get hit good at Pit 2 even if it does tuck earlier, it's not really gaining latitude.  The difference will be between good and betterer.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 If it tucks closer at 12z you will want to be at pit one.

 

4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

 

I think we'll still get hit good at Pit 2 even if it does tuck earlier, it's not really gaining latitude.  The difference will be between good and betterer.

Its kicks east a bit before getting captured and tugged back to the west and slows down.

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