Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I see the 32 line comes pretty close to the 84 corridor at hr 63.

That’s fine, i prefer to play with fire.

[WxBlue]

Stayed all snow just NW of PSM. If this is as far as warm layer will get, like some of you are thinking, then I feel pretty good about this storm.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Everyone.   Let’s see what else 12z brings.

Really? I don’t think anyone uses it. They just look at it . 

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Lock that sucker in.

Two maxes this run, Mid Atlantic and up here.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

This is why I love the NAM.

Keeps me entertained until the big guys rip it out east like usual

Classic over-amped NAMMY type run.

 

I dunno. Matches up with the 6z GEFS pretty darn well, which had an unsettling number of members run the slp right over PVD/BOS.

[Spanks45]

6 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

That is not a good run for either of us.

Even I don't do so well over here on the western end, hopefully a compromise between the Euro and nam for this one.

[WintersComing]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Two maxes this run, Mid Atlantic and up here.

Not This.....

[dryslot]

Just now, WintersComing said:

Not This.....

Tucked in low is not your friend and that was a nasty dryslot ripping up thru CT.

[wxsniss]

Another Nick Foles run
Seems synoptically possible... just a matter of phasing and closing earlier, such that it is spent by the time it reaches our lattitude, and correctly scoots east and is not an inland cutter due to the block

But how can the Euro be so wrong... 5 consistent runs inside 96hrs... either this once again proves beyond a doubt that something is ill with the Euro, or it's just Nam's fun encore before curtains

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This is why I love the NAM.

Keeps me entertained until the big guys rip it out east like usual

Classic over-amped NAMMY type run.

Final sensible weather impacts are of course likely not right in this case. BUT there were some big changes through 48 at H5, showing a sharper trough and higher downstream UL heights. Those changes are likely at least on the right track and will likely be reflected in other guidance going forward...

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Really? I don’t think anyone uses it. They just look at it . 

Well not a huge factor unless the rest of 12z agrees.  Reggie still not in range.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Two maxes this run, Mid Atlantic and up here.

Your area is tricky. Best dynamics south perhaps? Left with dryslot and wrap around maybe ?

[WintersComing]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Tucked in low is not your friend and that was a nasty dryslot ripping up thru CT.

Ya...think most of us would like to see it set course right towards the elbow and into the GOM.

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Really? I don’t think anyone uses it. They just look at it . 

You hugged it like a teddy bear last Friday. 

[dryslot]

I would not be so sure the Euro is wrong, Especially if your just using the Nam as a reference.............lol

[Whineminster]

Live and die by each model run

[WintersComing]

Good Lord....look at the 3K at hr 56 lol

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Your area is tricky. Best dynamics south perhaps? Left with dryslot and wrap around maybe ?

His area is the least tricky, ha.  Go big for Maine or go home.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

At any rate, just another run but does show possibility if the sw’s interact earlier.

[powderfreak]

That NAM run looks exactly like the amped up ENS members of the GEFS and EPS.  There weren't a ton of the EPS but a few of them that showed that.  GEFS had a bunch more.

I'm with wxniss though... I can't see the EURO being wrong 5 runs in a row.  That's a tough pill to swallow.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, powderfreak said:

His area is the least tricky, ha.  Go big for Maine or go home.

I agree interior Maine is 1-2’

[WintersComing]

The 3K basically stalls it right off Jersey coast

 

[jbenedet]

I said this a few days ago, but this really is a Miller A/B system. In fact this is looking more Miller A over time, with a late phase after becoming vertically stacked around hr 72...

Would be <980 mb storm if we could bring forward the timing of that final phase by 12 hours or so...

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Your area is tricky. Best dynamics south perhaps? Left with dryslot and wrap around maybe ?

Not with the Euro, Nope, Not tricky at all, Kicks east out over the cape because of blocking, Has not been any model run that shows anything you have mentioned for up here.

[WintersComing]

Here comes the ICON....go big or go home baby!! lol

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I agree interior Maine is 1-2’

NAM is too far west for me... I think I'd dryslot between the forcing closer to the coast and the mid level magic over NY State, lol. 

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

The 3K basically stalls it right off Jersey coast

 

Yea hrs 55-58 are just nuts with the LP sitting there.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

His area is the least tricky, ha.  Go big for Maine or go home.

I saw what he was trying to do, I mentioned a dryslot over central CT because that's what the Nam had.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

NAM is too far west for me... I think I'd dryslot between the forcing closer to the coast and the mid level magic over NY State, lol. 

No way.

[CTWeatherFreak]

2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Yea hrs 55-58 are just nuts with the LP sitting there.

Yea, and pinwheels the dryslot right through central Ct.. Again!