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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Not anymore.  The main player in this storm is the s/w that just came onshore in Oregon. It gets a jolt from the ULL in Ontario though.

I haven't had a chance to scrutinize the evolution for about 24 hours, but the late phase and ULL interaction implies Miller B to me.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I have a hard time buying the NAM verbatim...it's basically agreeing with the ARW model which has like a 99% success rate of being too far amped. If we get something like the 06z NAM (which was still more amped than the 00z Euro and close to GFS), that would paste most folks outside of far SE areas.

How much do you see the breakdown of the ridge downstream having an impact?  Seems like the GFS is doing this.

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Whineminster

Whineminster

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The NAM would definitely be a few hours of fun back this way but I'll wait for the rest of the 12z thanks.

This storm is probably going to create some anxiety for those in hard-hit coastal communities or folks still without power. 

Maybe they shouldn't live in a marsh. Honestly some of those spots in marshfield and scituate I be like "whaaaaat there's a house built here???" 

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Sn0waddict

Sn0waddict

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

51 hr ICON is a smidge NW of its 6z position thus far.

Edit: Def looking more like NAM thus far out to 54. LP hugging NJ coastline.

It actually looks a lot like the ICONs 0z run, and it doesn’t crash into NJ like the NAM.  It’s a great run for western New England and NYC

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

How much do you see the breakdown of the ridge downstream having an impact?  Seems like the GFS is doing this.

The block to the north is def very important...the Euro holds it stronger than the more amped guidance which kind of forces stuff underneath and blunts the downstream ridging....the NAM tries to shoot the downstream ridging right up into the gulf of maine further west than Euro which helps with the more tucked track.

 

In the end, we will likely see a compromise of sorts...of course, for your hood especially, the degree of the compromise matters. You'd prob get pasted with a 50/50 deal...but if its more than that, then a lot of SE MA might have ptype issues.

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Buddy1987

Buddy1987

Posted
Posted
Just now, Sn0waddict said:

It actually looks a lot like the ICONs 0z run, and it doesn’t crash into NJ like the NAM.  It’s a great run for western New England and NYC

Yea between hrs 54-63, the ICON is a crush job for most of southern new england. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

Personally?  I don't see much difference in the NAM's recent solution going back to 18z yesterday...  The only difference, which is sensibly huge for some...is the exact track of the low.

It's one of those odd scenarios where the totality of the synoptic handling between run times is for all intents and purposes, noise, but ... by a thin (like 20 mile gap) margin, we're talking about the difference between a 16" blue bomb and just cat paw rain drops the size of golf balls.  

The 06 z was on the eastern side of the aforementioned four runs, this 12z is on the western end.   If one is a NAM rider ... perhaps taking the blend isn't a altogether a bad option. 

I would not .. I mean, the Euro is not that bad of a model.  I realize that it's fallibility belly has been exposed a bit this season, but I would still take that model's depictions pretty heavily into the ballast of my decision weighting for scenarios at < four days.  Therefore, while the NAM's giant appeal one way or the other is certainly disconcerting, both for consistency and actual plausible sensible impacts .. we really need to consider blending some of these other more dependable guidance types into the fray with this - I mean...not that anyone isn't ... just sayn'.

So ...I look at the 06z and 12z differences as interesting curiosities ... but don't really think it alters the blended mean between about 

1/2 (Euro) + 1/4 (GFS with bias correction for BL warming) + 1/8 (NAM blend) + 1/8 combination of any others...

with the caveat that if any one of these sources can be really obviously honed as having a particularly valid insight missing from the others, these are not fixed weightings, either.  

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

ICON as a model generally blows but the NAM isn’t exactly champagne. 

Most people are right in that we probably wouldn't bother viewing either of them very much if they came out later...they are bottom of the barrel. But since they are some of the first guidance out each run, we tune in to get our fix.

Models like the NOGAPS and JMA hardly ever get any play since they come out later and are mostly garbage.

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The block to the north is def very important...the Euro holds it stronger than the more amped guidance which kind of forces stuff underneath and blunts the downstream ridging....the NAM tries to shoot the downstream ridging right up into the gulf of maine further west than Euro which helps with the more tucked track.

 

In the end, we will likely see a compromise of sorts...of course, for your hood especially, the degree of the compromise matters. You'd prob get pasted with a 50/50 deal...but if its more than that, then a lot of SE MA might have ptype issues.

Yes, I think the euro has best handling on H5 phasing, but I'm concerned that it's probably not amplifying UL heights enough ahead of our Southern Stream shortwave. So I'm def on board with the 50/50 compromise in this case.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most people are right in that we probably wouldn't bother viewing either of them very much if they came out later...they are bottom of the barrel. But since they are some of the first guidance out each run, we tune in to get our fix.

Models like the NOGAPS and JMA hardly ever get any play since they come out later and are mostly garbage.

And the relatively sh itty GFS and CMC come out first of the globals.  In the end it’s always save a horse.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Is it my or am I missing something?  Up until this season I never remember  people never talked about ICON the German model.  Is this a new model?

I don't know its history, but it started appearing on Trop Tidbits a few months back, so I think that's when folks started looking at it

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