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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nice post. There’s been a noticeable trend of earlier stream involvement. Would be nice for the euro to latch onto that idea today. It does not mean tucked and rain for east zones either, some have been thinking is but it is false. It just gets us in a better spot to stall it over ACK, everyone but the islands would be happy with that. 

Not everyone.............lol

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WintersComing

WintersComing

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

Nams and GFS seem to love regurgitating the central ct screw zone .. CMC says What screw zone?  Oh Canada!

gem_asnow_us_14.png

Ya I don't see how Central CT gets a screw zone like that unless we dry slot.  NAM was the only one showing that but we all pretty much agree that NAM is a bit over amped.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS and Canadian are similar in behavior with the ULL and it closing off to the south. The QPF immediately NW of the low center signals very strong low level forcing there. You can see at hr 66 a funky MSLP depiction east of Chatham.The 925 LLJ is 70kts there. It's almost like a CF, but not...more like an extension of low pressure and it trying to reform there where WAA is going wild. This has been a feature on guidance for awhile.

Someone just west of the CF (there will likely be one but not huge gradient...like 30-31 vs 34-36) will prob get ridiculous snowfall totals.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted
4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nice post. There’s been a noticeable trend of earlier stream involvement. Would be nice for the euro to latch onto that idea today. It does not mean tucked and rain for east zones either, some have been thinking is but it is false. It just gets us in a better spot to stall it over ACK, everyone but the islands would be happy with that. 

I think it may ... however, I can imagine a scenario just the same where the recent NAM's more stream interaction, and now the GFS joining in with that thinking, are both still over doing that... The Euro is uuuuusually pretty damn fantastic at < four days with this type of open air, middle troposheric mechanical processing ... 

Put it this way, if this thing does phase more proficiently ...and the Euro maintains less ...? That would be a pretty striking nuanced failure by a tool that quite frankly rarely does so with that type of handling.  

Interesting run no doubt, huh.  

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Someone just west of the CF (there will likely be one but not huge gradient...like 30-31 vs 34-36) will prob get ridiculous snowfall totals.

I agree. Signal is there. The thermals concern me, but would be a shellacking towards the end,or maybe more like a GGEM deal.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, CoastalWx said:

I agree. Signal is there. The thermals concern me, but would be a shellacking towards the end,or maybe more like a GGEM deal.

Yeah immediate coast may struggle for a while, esp first half of the storm...but if we it ends up slightly east more toward the Euro, then they'll prob just get destroyed with paste.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think it may ... however, I can imagine a scenario just the same where the recent NAM's more stream interaction, and now the GFS joining in with that thinking, are both still over doing that... The Euro is uuuuusually pretty damn fantastic at < four days with this type of open air, middle troposheric mechanical processing ... 

Put it this way, if this thing does phase more proficiently ...and the Euro maintains less ...? That would be a pretty striking nuanced failure by a tool that quite frankly rarely does so with that type of handling.  

Interesting run no doubt, huh.  

Agree. it does have it just a little later than these american guys. So even if we compromise on it, it will work. 

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

I'm riding the Meso 3km NAM.  :)  OK it's probably somewhat overdone, but it's been the hot hand this winter. Now the GFS trends that way. The Euro was inconsistent with the last event and just not what it used to be. Gone are the days where it's gonna be Euro against the world of models and the Euro will school them all. That said, I think it's still nice for most interior SNE because they all show the hook right just in time, and lets assume the NAM is a little too crazy hugging so far north.

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WintersComing

WintersComing

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Logan11 said:

I'm riding the Meso 3km NAM.  :)  OK it's probably somewhat overdone, but it's been the hot hand this winter. Now the GFS trends that way. The Euro was inconsistent with the last event and just not what it used to be. Gone are the days where it's gonna be Euro against the world of models and the Euro will school them all. That said, I think it's still nice for most interior SNE because they all show the hook right just in time, and lets assume the NAM is a little too crazy hugging so far north.

Huh? lol

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