Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[Damage In Tolland]

BOX chucking 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

WSW up already for Wednesday. That’s early. She coming hard I guess

The general consensus was that there was definitely 50% confidence is a large part of the area getting at least 6"

I mean just look at the Euro probs, 70-80% for much of the area. That's pushing warning confidence.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The general consensus was that there was definitely 50% confidence is a large part of the area getting at least 6"

I mean just look at the Euro probs, 70-80% for much of the area. That's pushing warning confidence.

Yeah plus it’s moving in faster with snow In here by daybreak on Wednesday 

[weathafella]

This is going to be one of those “glad I moved” systems.   

[OceanStWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah plus it’s moving in faster with snow I here by daybreak on Wednesday 

I don't think it's going to really start pounding until closer to midday, but there is some pretty good isentropic upglide across a lot of New England early in the day. Wouldn't shock me to see a steady light snow start ahead of the heavy, heavies.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The general consensus was that there was definitely 50% confidence is a large part of the area getting at least 6"

I mean just look at the Euro probs, 70-80% for much of the area. That's pushing warning confidence.

The setup is very hard to hate away from the immediate coast in SNE. Even the immediate coast could pound out big numbers in paste but still some stuff that could go wrong for them (temps, dryslot on closer tucked track)...but the interior isn't going to have those problems. Maybe far enough west you could slightly worry about an escape east enough to prevent warning snows, but even that is looking less likely. 

[DFRI]

What the heck is up with that map showing 2" so close to 10" - 11".  

 

 

On edit-  Looks like they fixed the map.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Let's just avoid any powder. Just wet paste everywhere

[WintersComing]

Nice to see the CMC is onboard now as well


.

[HoarfrostHubb]

41 minutes ago, weathafella said:

This is going to be one of those “glad I moved” systems.   

That should get you a couple more inches I would think

[weathafella]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

That should get you a couple more inches I would think

Yes.  And if logan taints I could minimize it which is the main issue to me.

[mahk_webstah]

I'm excited that most all of us are going to get a big storm.  Looks like 1-2ft over a large area.  I'm struck by how slow moving it is and that suggests that lollies might approach 3' for areas that get deform or CCB with high ratios.  I'll take the over on 28" for someone in New England with this storm.  Finally, this feels like a classic new england noreaster, not particularly hard to forecast (in the large sense) and really good for most.  Thought we'd have more of this this winter, at least up here.  It is good to see some actual blocking setting up and helping us.  I wonder when we'll finally get more hope on the Atlantic side for longer parts of seasons going forward.  This and maybe the next one would be a great close to winter, kinda like the 2 biggies late last winter. 

I hope my moving truck can get here to Dover Thursday morn to move us to Boscawen.

[CoastalWx]

Could be epic paste near the coast.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Could be epic paste near the coast.

Power back on.. then off the same day for some on the coast?

[moneypitmike]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its going to phase later...just watch and wait.

I like being east for this one.......remember, the -PNA won't help matters relative to phase time. It's deconstructive interference with the NAO, and will try to move it along like we saw with the flizzard on Friday.

Maine or bust.

[Hoth]

Did not like the look of the Euro down here. If it gets any later we'll be enjoying a chilly nw wind and veiled sunshine Wednesday.

[eyewall]

This could easily be a screw job in my next of the woods with BL issues to start and the possibility of the low being too far east if the Euro pans out (though it has been too far east with recent storms). While not a major snow we still may eek out 4-8 in the CPV.

[ScituateWX]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Could be epic paste near the coast.

Would make for an ugly situation here!  Going down 3A from Scituate to Marshfiled was unreal! Heavy damage to power lines and poles.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Guess BOX chucked the Euro in the trash for their current map. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

13 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Did not like the look of the Euro down here. If it gets any later we'll be enjoying a chilly nw wind and veiled sunshine Wednesday.

It’s on its own. Well, cmc backs it...enough said.

[CTWeatherFreak]

6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Guess BOX chucked the Euro in the trash for their current map. 

Went with a blend

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s on its own. Well, cmc backs it...enough said.

Yeah, it's had a tendency to be a little SE with storms this winter too. Both Jan and the last one. Nammy would be ideal for us (not that I put too much faith in that either). Wild omega greater than -36 microbars from 800-600mb.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Yeah, it's had a tendency to be a little SE with storms this winter too. Both Jan and the last one. Nammy would be ideal for us (not that I put too much faith in that either). Wild omega greater than -36 microbars from 800-600mb.

A compromise will work. I also find euro qpf to be subpar, in general.

[moneypitmike]

GYX is liking the EC.

05.00z ECMWF EPS has
increased probabilities from the 04.12z run for all categories
of snowfall. The chances of 6 plus inches now sits around 80
percent for most of the forecast area...with a mean of a foot
showing up near the coast. With that strong support and signals
from model guidance I feel confident enough to issue a winter
storm watch for the entire forecast area. While there are still
details to be worked out...a widespread double digit snowfall
looks increasingly likely.

[ice1972]

3 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

We're discussing a storm Wed/Thu i.e. a "moderate-major impact event midweek" as the title says.

Sorry....yes that’s what I thought but a reply or two where Friday’s storm was discussed given it’s just sittin and spinnin OTS....whatever....here’s to Wednesday 

[Cold Miser]

I am kind of surprised that BOX is throwing out totals 2 days away.

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

I am kind of surprised that BOX is throwing out totals 2 days away.

Really? They have been doing that a while

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

The general consensus was that there was definitely 50% confidence is a large part of the area getting at least 6"

I mean just look at the Euro probs, 70-80% for much of the area. That's pushing warning confidence.

I was really surprised with how early they went out... didn't expect BTV to have watches out on Monday morning.

[moneypitmike]

What are the thoughts regarding wind? (especially in coastal Maine for mby purposes).  Any possibility of blizzard conditions?

[Damage In Tolland]

55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Could be epic paste near the coast.

For all