March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion

[78Blizzard]

CMC also in the game, but tries to take it over the canal.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is back on the saddle for next Wednesday. That's a legit airmass out in front of that storm on all guidance. The coldest antecedent airmass we've seen in weeks.

 

3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

CMC also in the game, but tries to take it over the canal.

That would be a nice combination for the interior.  LOL    We needed a colder look to the north for lower elevations away from the coastal ccb to score today.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't care what happens with this one....my winter can die happy.

 

 

 

#okilied

[ice1972]

Ahaha hahahahaha ha.........GFS says let’s do it 3 more times.....JFC

[HIPPYVALLEY]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't care what happens with this one....my winter can die happy.

 

 

 

#okilied

Weather done served you good, time to start focusing on the bride to be!  

There will of course be one more big one to test the commitment.  That's how it works. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Ahaha hahahahaha ha.........GFS says let’s do it 3 more times.....JFC

Need a bowling bowl pseudo SWFE with a good high placement to crush WNE. 

[Paragon]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Its out of sea solution became a coastal snowstorm this run....but obviously we've got a long ways to go before really getting too serious with this threat.

 

But it has some good ensemble support so we shall see.

Hopefully not a coastal hugger that would introduce chances of mixing.

 

Let's see what the Euro says- should be coming out now.

[BombsAway1288]

21 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Hopefully not a coastal hugger that would introduce chances of mixing.

 

Let's see what the Euro says- should be coming out now.

Euro is a coastal hugger but it's a lot weaker than the GFS. Good news is that it's 168 hours away with a lot more runs to go 

[Paragon]

Just now, BombsAway1288 said:

Euro is a coastal hugger but it's a lot weaker than the GFS. Good news is that it's 168 hours away with a lot more runs to go 

So the GFS was a benchmark track while the Euro was more like over eastern LI or something like that?

 

Interesting that they switched positions from the storm that just happened.

[Thunderblizzard]

5 minutes ago, Paragon said:

So the GFS was a benchmark track while the Euro was more like over eastern LI or something like that?

 

Interesting that they switched positions from the storm that just happened.

It goes just south of LI but a little warm near the south coast verbatim. Kind of a weird look but I'm sure it will be completely different at 12z.

[Damage In Tolland]

EPS says sharpen your shovels 

[Ginx snewx]

34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

EPS says sharpen your shovels 

Ever see anyone sharpen a shovel? Lol. Morch on.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Interesting scenario developing this morning into the afternoon. An arctic shortwave is rounding the base of the trough and has a negative tilt over VA and NC this morning it is showing lift developing over NE VA in water vapor imagery. This could put Eastern MA in the game again for some surprise snows, the models are not dealing with this correctly

[allgame830]

10 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Interesting scenario developing this morning into the afternoon. An arctic shortwave is rounding the base of the trough and has a negative tilt over VA and NC this morning it is showing lift developing over NE VA in water vapor imagery. This could put Eastern MA in the game again for some surprise snows, the models are not dealing with this correctly

How many we can bring some love down to the LHV, western and central CT regions because they missed out big with yesterday...

[EastonSN+]

45 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

How many we can bring some love down to the LHV, western and central CT regions because they missed out big with yesterday...

Parts of Western CT did ok yesterday in the west most band. I received 9.5 in it and some towns over 10.

Agreed for LHV and central CT although they made out really well too in the last storm (I received 10 in that one and lost power).

We need a good old fashioned Washington to Boston pounding and associated media frenzie.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Interesting scenario developing this morning into the afternoon. An arctic shortwave is rounding the base of the trough and has a negative tilt over VA and NC this morning it is showing lift developing over NE VA in water vapor imagery. This could put Eastern MA in the game again for some surprise snows, the models are not dealing with this correctly

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Parts of Western CT did ok yesterday in the west most band. I received 9.5 in it and some towns over 10.

Agreed for LHV and central CT although they made out really well too in the last storm (I received 10 in that one and lost power).

We need a good old fashioned Washington to Boston pounding and associated media frenzie.

 

Lol...that’s a very old map.

Steve posted this link in the obs thread which shows it nicely along with a list on the side.

 

https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?sid=box

 

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Lol...that’s a very old map.

Steve posted this link in the obs thread which shows it nicely along with a list on the side.

 

https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?sid=box

 

Thanks. However they have my old 6.5 measurement for Easton on that map from 10:00 am. The other map had my final obs of 9.5.

Gets me angry.

The UPTON snowfall list has my 9.5.

 

 

[#NoPoles]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't care what happens with this one....my winter can die happy.

 

 

 

#okilied

Imagine if you get another 30 inches???!!!

[tamarack]

8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is back on the saddle for next Wednesday. That's a legit airmass out in front of that storm on all guidance. The coldest antecedent airmass we've seen in weeks.

From zilch to advisory level for up here, and lots of time if that trend could continue.  And that arctic air is the first real cold since early last month.  We've had at least one subzero morning in March 18 of 19 years here - 2010 bottomed out at a modest 11 - and I'd given up on this year until seeing those -20 H8s for next week.

[JKEisMan]

8", 24", 7" for the last 3 storms in New Fairfield. Would be interesting to see a map for total March accumulations across SNE.

Tickling 40" here for March so far and only halfway through.  Can we top 50"? 60"?  Would be a Morch to remember.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

41 minutes ago, JKEisMan said:

8", 24", 7" for the last 3 storms in New Fairfield. Would be interesting to see a map for total March accumulations across SNE.

Tickling 40" here for March so far and only halfway through.  Can we top 50"? 60"?  Would be a Morch to remember.

2, 12, 10.5 here. Could have been much better but that’s typically how my winter’s go. Always close to the big ones but never truly big. That’s what she said. 

I am above avg for the season though so not a bad way to close out the season...Another good event would raise the winter grade up a notch. Currently sits around 77 out of 100.

[snowman21]

0, 4, 1 so far for me this month. Hoping for one last shot before the 9 month snow break.

[allgame830]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Parts of Western CT did ok yesterday in the west most band. I received 9.5 in it and some towns over 10.

Agreed for LHV and central CT although they made out really well too in the last storm (I received 10 in that one and lost power).

We need a good old fashioned Washington to Boston pounding and associated media frenzie.

 

Yes you did make out pretty good considering with yesterday's storm... I have done pretty decent as well with these 3 noreasters (2", 10", 4.5") so 16.5" for the month is great for March and its only the 14th.  

 

 

[EastonSN+]

10 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Yes you did make out pretty good considering with yesterday's storm... I have done pretty decent as well with these 3 noreasters (2", 10", 4.5") so 16.5" for the month is great for March and its only the 14th.  

 

 

19.5 for March. 

The next system may be warm but we will see. Want the guidance further south at this juncture.

[H2Otown_WX]

0, 10.4, 6.3. A solid March so far but looking for a capstone event since I've been left out of the CJ JP's.

[allgame830]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

19.5 for March. 

The next system may be warm but we will see. Want the guidance further south at this juncture.

Na I disagree that it will be warm we have a relatively cold week in advance of it and the cold airmass will be around for the storm if it does comes to fruition.

[MJO812]

22 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

0, 4, 1 so far for me this month. Hoping for one last shot before the 9 month snow break.

0,4,1 for me also

[Typhoon Tip]

Depends on what one is thinking when they use the adjective "warm" to describe what is becoming increasingly more possible per passing model cycle for yet another in a steady diet of coastal storms - this next one centered roughly on March 20th.

NCEP: "...THE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE WEST WILL SPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD WHILE LOCATIONS FROM FROM THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY THROUGH MID ATLANTIC APPEAR TO HAVE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY FOR THE PROPORTION OF RAIN VS SNOW BASED ON SURFACE LOW TRACK SPREAD. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO ANOTHER STORM THAT COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT WIND/PRECIP EFFECTS TO AREAS ALONG THE EAST COAST. ..."

If by warm, one is thinking rain... while I would not outright discount that possibility as a show of respect and acknowledgement to March climatology ... for this particular system/hemispheric circumstance governing, even at this far out in time (D 6.5), the correction vector is pointed toward colder system types.  That's per larger mass-field (tele's) arguments combined with trends ..et al. It is getting late in the year, and fact of the matter is... and yes, the sun is passing over the Equator on that day which ... for spatial homage is like September 20th - imagine that..?   

That said, I have seen blowing snow at 1 pm as late as April 11 before. But, drama aside, the NAO is not going anywhere (I don't believe).  The west based nature of the block may at times appear to be dissolved (and I don't buy the 00z Euro's notion of summer south of the Mason Dixie D9+) but the vestigial tendency for it is still being placed there by the hemispheric circulation overall...such that given the smallest reason to reestablish its self, it does.  You can see this in occasional operational guidance cycles...  But, it's not just the NAO really..? It's really the entire collar of the 60th parallel around the hemisphere having that tendency...probably keyed into the general (though slowly recovering) -AO.  The Euro in fact has a -3 EPO suddenly...actually the GEFs have that index, WPO too for that matter, both tanking over the next week.  AA phases of the N. Pacific don't tend to parlay to warm Marches - too early for that. 

Anyway... the short version is that yet another winter storm is possible if not likely early to mid next week.  Right now...I'd lean moderate potency and probably average size (in terms of areal coverage)?  But that could certainly change.  I would also lean colder on the N arc and probably colder than the models would resolve at this lead. 

Also... some 9 GEFs members from 00z out of the 12 I saw have significant cyclones depicted, perhaps lending confidence. We seem to be locked into a weekly periodicity and regular oscillatory behavior is not that uncommon during in situ patterns.  Until we lose that 60 N tendency for blocking nodes, I suggest the base canvas has not changed. A circumstance that I think fades until diabatic wash really finally beats the season to death ...I dunno, first week of April.   That doesn't mean we're guaranteed of course.. but until that becomes more evidence, we probably have actionable atrocities to the spring/warm weather enthusiasts.

Probably could use excerpts of this post to start a thread actually ... but, someone else do it - I did the last three. 

[Damage In Tolland]

This next event has sped up on the models and is now a Monday night / Tuesday storm instead of what they initially had of a Wednesday storm.