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March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah.  Gives even more on the oz Euro...   still so far out, but at least trackable

I'd favor interior areas for Number 4.  

We have a retreating 50/50 low that allows for a closer track.  NAO still neggy, so it won't cut, but it could mirror Number 2 for strength/track.  This sort of feels like Feb. 2015 "light".  Pretty cold antecedent airmass though beforehand could make this snowier for coastal peeps too.

 

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Keith Carson ,Todd Guntner as well as Charlie Lopresti have made sure the "all" know too...................:lol:, I'll wait a few more days before i rile up the masses again on FB.

My gf had the Weather Channel on this morning (don't judge) - they had an accumulation map of sorts for Tuesday!  I shook my head

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It looks pretty damn cold before the storm. The airmass won’t be stale I don’t think.

the gfs is a pretty nice look, slide that 50 miles SE and we’d be in the game here.

Icon and CMC are both borderline earning events here.

Superitendent is sending kids to school Friday, which was supposed to be a professional day because she’s afraid they may lose another day next week

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Bit of a scooter high for this storm too...esp on GGEM...but even somewhat on GFS.

A big key will be how quickly the western energy ejects, and how firm that PV lobe north of Maine holds. We still have some vestiges of blocking that have moved into Greenland from the west-based block that has been with us most of this month. That blocking will be important for this storm as without it we would see a cutter.

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 THIS IS FOR NEXT WEEK STORM TUE OR WED DAYS

First low track into the ohio valley area then  reform off the east coast .  When it reforms is likely track is from just south of  Delaware coast area form off that area towards just south of cape cod area be a strong storm .North west of i-95 area in sne area just north west of i-95 in from big apple to   phil area will likely get snow . rain / snow near the coast . Models will change many times but track wont be inland track because of the blocking over then northeast and greenland area . Their will cold air into storm and before the storm .

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This one is different in that we have more like buck shot vorticity shrapnel discordantly riding up over and underneath New England.  Priors, as we know, were more coherently single slug beauts that had questions as to capture and phasing and headaches...   

This is more like a S/W that's busted open, while as Will mentioned, there is well-timed polar high N... I almost wonder if that smearing in space and time may make for light totals over longer time spans. Sort of why in all and essence I leaned toward more of moderate potency earlier.  Not seeing much on this new cycle of runs so far to think otherwise.  

I wonder if this is the one D 7 Euro run that's historic - ha

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Next event will be denser than this last one inland, but not as bad as the one before it. I'm calling 15", basically all snow except for maybe some snizzle at the end. Why? Why not pretend to be psychic? 

Anyhow, looks good for us winter lovers, though I'm ready for spring when it comes. Around here if it comes in mid April will a strong early season, low dewpoint, warmspell (red flag territory when its dry, but not in this situation) to dry things up and make it green.

Before that, let it snow!

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56 minutes ago, dryslot said:

About the same time frame, I have only seen a March opening maybe once or twice over 30 yrs at the course i was a member at.

We have only had one March opening, in 2012 and it was disastrous financially.  We had to bring back staff a month early and we didn't generate the the extra revenue to make it worthwhile. 

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If the shortwaves cooperate within the chaotic flow...it is possible we try and make a run at March 2001 depths in parts of interior SNE as we approach April. Obviously things have to go right...we need the 3/21 storm to hit, then the 3/24-5 storm to hit.

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