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Baroclinic Zone

March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion

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So February turned out to be a top tier warmest on record for most of us.  Some of us were lucky to cash in on some snow when the pattern/temps were favorable, others were not.  As we enter March we look to have what might be one of the strongest -NAO on record.  We haven't had one in a while so lets see what transpires.  Our 1st threat is upcoming at the end of this week  and models are still waffling as the pattern becomes established.  Beyond that we look to have more threats as the pattern sets in more and the cold becomes more established.  There is another threat towards the 1st half of the 2nd week of the month to monitor as well.

 

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March is a fickle month ... as we all know.  Some years conditions persistently mimic mid winter. Other years, albeit extreme, may be like 2012 with Forsythias blooming in the first week and the sweet smell of cracked sugar maple buds permeating the breezes by the Equinox. That was exceptionally rare... 

If we place either of those two scenarios sort of on a spectrum and consider them polar opposites ... just based upon my experience, Marches tend to average less than mid way between... perhaps in the 1/3 to 2/5ths of the distance from the cold side to the warm side.   

The difference between the 1st of March and the 1st of April ... is fairly pronounced. It is one of the bigger distinction journeys across a single month there is. I would put April in 2nd place, and perhaps October 20th to November 20th in third ... although... the third place has a very tight cluster of time intervals that compete. It almost seems in recent years we have had increased variability in the Autumns, where every year we go from relative balm to frigidity in short order..but at different times.  That makes standardizing expectations at that end ... a little less clear. 

That 'less clear' thing seems to be happening more frequently over recent years regardless, as well..  

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27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

March is a fickle month ... as we all know.  Some years conditions persistently mimic mid winter. Other years, albeit extreme, may be like 2012 with Forsythias blooming in the first week and the sweet smell of cracked sugar maple buds permeating the breezes by the Equinox. That was exceptionally rare... 

If we place either of those two scenarios sort of on a spectrum and consider them polar opposites ... just based upon my experience, Marches tend to average less than mid way between... perhaps in the 1/3 to 2/5ths of the distance from the cold side to the warm side.   

The difference between the 1st of March and the 1st of April ... is fairly pronounced. It is one of the bigger distinction journeys across a single month there is. I would put April in 2nd place, and perhaps October 20th to November 20th in third ... although... the third place has a very tight cluster of time intervals that compete. It almost seems in recent years we have had increased variability in the Autumns, where every year we go from relative balm to frigidity in short order..but at different times.  That makes standardizing expectations at that end ... a little less clear. 

That 'less clear' thing seems to be happening more frequently over recent years regardless, as well..  

It'd be interesting to see if there's a correlation between the pack up here entering the month and the following monthly temps. 2010 and 2012 didn't have much for pack and we were able to get out of mud season in CNE after about a week into the month. Having the sun's energy all going toward warming dry soil and yielding deeper mixing would bias us warmer versus wasting the energy on reflected shortwave rad via albedo or latent cooling from melting and evaporating pack.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

It'd be interesting to see if there's a correlation between the pack up here entering the month and the following monthly temps. 2010 and 2012 didn't have much for pack and we were able to get out of mud season in CNE after about a week into the month. Having the sun's energy all going toward warming dry soil and yielding deeper mixing would bias us warmer versus wasting the energy on reflected shortwave rad via albedo or latent cooling from melting and evaporating pack.

Excellent question really...  I would be interesting in the insolation versus albedo kick-back on the that transition stuff too.  Although, we'd probably spark debates therein - I can see people arguing that a sufficiently overwhelming synoptic push of warm air can obliterate a snow pack in short order ... 

Excluding that (also) rarer thing... for marginal Marches... does snow pack matter?  I bet it does - but not sure. 

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It'd be interesting to see if there's a correlation between the pack up here entering the month and the following monthly temps. 2010 and 2012 didn't have much for pack and we were able to get out of mud season in CNE after about a week into the month. Having the sun's energy all going toward warming dry soil and yielding deeper mixing would bias us warmer versus wasting the energy on reflected shortwave rad via albedo or latent cooling from melting and evaporating pack.

2012 had baseball practive on dry fields in my town by March 28th...typically there is a good amount of snow still on the fields then some drying out...maybe on field by April 15th.

I feel like we have been in constant mud season since the January cold passed by

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32 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It'd be interesting to see if there's a correlation between the pack up here entering the month and the following monthly temps. 2010 and 2012 didn't have much for pack and we were able to get out of mud season in CNE after about a week into the month. Having the sun's energy all going toward warming dry soil and yielding deeper mixing would bias us warmer versus wasting the energy on reflected shortwave rad via albedo or latent cooling from melting and evaporating pack.

Some numbers from 19 winters at my current location.  The Farmington co-op has reliable snow depth data back into the mid-1960s - might be worth my checking on that longer data set.

Snow depth on March 1 has ranged from 6" in 2006 to 48" two years later.  Snowfall has ranged from 0.6" in 2010 to 55.5" in 2001. 

(Missing numbers are values not yet observed for 3/1.)

                6-12"    15-19"    24-48"    All 19
                N=5      N=6       N=8

Temp        30.9      28.3       23.5        27.2 

Precip       3.69      3.38       3.93        3.69

Snow         7.6       16.1       23.1        16.8

Range   0.6-15.2   3.4-32.2   7.5-55.5

SSS, but clear-looking relationship between 3/1 pack and both temp and snowfall.  Precip not so much, especially since the wettest March, 7.91" in 1999, had 15" pack on 3/1 and so is in the driest group.

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3/7 signal has been pretty consistent on long range guidance. That's prob next date to watch.

 

Looks like the NAO block my try and rebuild at least temporarily.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

3/7 signal has been pretty consistent on long range guidance. That's prob next date to watch.

 

Looks like the NAO block my try and rebuild at least temporarily.

Now THAT is a Miller B!

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Atlantic pattern DJF retrogrades in March in history. This Winter we had a 1000mb +20-30% of normal. First two maps are similar and opposite analogs to DJF Atlantic High 17-18 (1st+ 2nd-). Temps are also very correlated, the ridge or trough retrogrades to effect east part of North Pacific High. 3rd image is +heights = March temperature, opposite analogs are opposite US temps. 4th image is 5 years since 2000 that had -NAO March 1-7 (all 5 had a >+150 500mb ridge March 8-31 around Greenland)

8a.png

8b.png

88c.png

88d.png

This is pretty similar to current modeling, so is February stratosphere warming +15-25 days

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

8-12" not gonna cut it.  The other solution was better.

Of course that is depth not accumulated and we know you melt with the best of them. But in that case we weenie out to the 12z Op run

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018022612_240_519_323.png

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Of course that is depth not accumulated and we know you melt with the best of them. But in that case we weenie out to the 12z Op run

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018022612_240_519_323.png

Ginx, is that showing "totals" from possibly Friday/Saturday event and another 7th range? if I'm reading correctly?

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12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What in the sam hell?

#metoo

 

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Of course that is depth not accumulated and we know you melt with the best of them. But in that case we weenie out to the 12z Op run

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018022612_240_519_323.png

Yeah, the 7th was good that run...

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Of course that is depth not accumulated and we know you melt with the best of them. But in that case we weenie out to the 12z Op run

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018022612_240_519_323.png

Other thread. And I believe it was still snowing in SE areas at day 10.

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1 minute ago, 512high said:

Ginx, is that showing "totals" from possibly Friday/Saturday event and another 7th range? if I'm reading correctly?

That is all from fantasy land day 9 10

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20 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

3/7 signal has been pretty consistent on long range guidance. That's prob next date to watch.

 

Looks like the NAO block my try and rebuild at least temporarily.

Still is...  

Not that you need the following personally ... but, I would also caution folks that, so was this thing at week's end. 

In fact, I would actually go ahead and label this Friday ordeal, and then the D9er...and perhaps one additional after that ... all as part of the same period of potential. We could miss them all, or get them all.. some variation in between is usually what transpires. 

 

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13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Aside from whatever happens Friday, that was one boring 10 day run of the Euro. 

 

Doubt we go snowless in March but if we somehow get blanked Friday, Euro wants to hint at much of this forum ending winter well BN in the snow department.   I'm certainly still a foot from average. 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Aside from whatever happens Friday, that was one boring 10 day run of the Euro. 

 

EPS 15 day says hope you enjoyed spring break

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1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Doubt we go snowless in March but if we somehow get blanked Friday, Euro wants to hint at much of this forum ending winter well BN in the snow department.   I'm certainly still a foot from average. 

EPS says you get to average

index.png

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

EPS 15 day says hope you enjoyed spring break

I should have 300" of 15-day EPS snowfall this winter.

Honestly every single two-week run has shown 12-18"+ all winter long.  Its like it just reverts to climo when it goes out that far.

There hasn't been a single EPS run where the snowfall mean up here hasn't been in the pink color, its so hard to judge what's legit and what's not with that mean.

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I should have 300" of 15-day EPS snowfall this winter.

Honestly every single two-week run has shown 12-18"+ all winter long.  Its like it just reverts to climo when it goes out that far.

There hasn't been a single EPS run where the snowfall mean up here hasn't been in the pink color, its so hard to judge what's legit and what's not with that mean.

Lol 

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