Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 During my run I was just thinking this seems kind of like the Morch firehose storm. Models were way OTS, brought it way back and the ensembles all had it. Even though modeis never brought it close enough in, the tremendous easterly inflow crushed most everyone. Ginx should pull up his latest inflow charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 6Z gefs looking better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Lot of big hits on the 06z GEFS and the 00z EPS too. But we're now getting inside 72 hours to go time...need to see some more OP runs biting. Ukie has been big but would be nice to see others go for it. Tight window which still is a bit worrisome but the good news is that even on these wide right solutions, some decent precip is being generated pretty far west...likely aided by the northern stream diving in and extending back an IVT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 EPS prob for >6” are pretty low, but it would not take much to improve it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 I’d be pretty surprised at this point if this isn’t at least a SECS for eastern sections. Teleconnections are primed. 0z EPS and especially 6z GEFS were red herrings that the respective op runs were OTL. The H5 downstream ridging and positioning of UL trough both looked better for a track closer to the coast, which for whatever reason failed to translate on the ops. Also with respect to the GEFS- the mean was signficantly more amped than the op; pretty telling imo. And there were a lot of members 965-975 about 150 miles east of the cape. Hard not to get excited about this one at this stage. Eastern New England is sitting pretty right here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Can anyone find anything wrong with that H5 depiction at hr 66 on the 6z GEFS? Without sounding too much like a weenie, that looks close to perfect for many... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Looking good for the east and NS. Jimmy gets his storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Looking strictly at the European suite of guidance from last night (cuz that's all that really matters right?), from the operational run, I thought the western ridge trending slightly better, but the Great Lakes vort trended slightly worse. In the end, the surface reflection trended slight better. But overall basically held serve from 12z yesterday. The EPS overall maybe trended a hair better, but looks to have held. If anything, the individual runs consolidated around the mean. The northern vort at 00z last night appears to have initialized over the western Canadian coast. So it's "on land" this morning. Still a pretty data sparse region no? Maybe we get a Boxing Day like jump in the last 48 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Looking strictly at the European suite of guidance from last night (cuz that's all that really matters right?), from the operational run, I thought the western ridge trending slightly better, but the Great Lakes vort trended slightly worse. In the end, the surface reflection trended slight better. But overall basically held serve from 12z yesterday. The EPS overall maybe trended a hair better, but looks to have held. If anything, the individual runs consolidated around the mean. The northern vort at 00z last night appears to have initialized over the western Canadian coast. So it's "on land" this morning. Still a pretty data sparse region no? Maybe we get a Boxing Day like jump in the last 48 hrs? Yeah the vort sampling issue could be legit. I know we weenies lean on that whenever a solution doesn't quite give us what we want, but it is a real phenomenon. I believe one of the shortwaves in the January system suffered from poor sampling and became progressively stronger as it moved into a better environment. We'll see. I'd like to see more operational interest by 0z tonight or this may be a no go, at least back here. Also want to see that ridge continue to get more pumped to force a quicker drop in by the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 It looks like the angle of attack of the northern stream on the GFS is acting more to kick this east/northeast right now. We're not getting the slide-in-the-backside (any takers?) look we like to pull it in close and stall it. Blocking looks like it shifts subtly east relative to some earlier runs, which may argue for a less steep drop in angle. Maybe slightly higher heights over the Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 10, 2018 Author Share Posted March 10, 2018 No complaints here with what I see on overnight/early AM guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: No complaints here with what I see on overnight/early AM guidance. Hoping some subtle shifts deliver the goods. Getting a little late in the game though. No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 At 72 hours out, this looks really great river east. And pretty decent west of river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: At 72 hours out, this looks really great river east. And pretty decent west of river I could definitely see one of those situations where the ops suddenly come on board in one run, a la Jan '15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 It is getting a little late for something large, not impossible though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 I like where I am for this, I think it's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It is getting a little late for something large, not impossible though. How does this remind you of the Morch firehose storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: How does this remind you of the Morch firehose storm? It doesn’t . That was a closed stall low to our south. This is a different setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Lot of big hits on the 06z GEFS and the 00z EPS too. But we're now getting inside 72 hours to go time...need to see some more OP runs biting. Ukie has been big but would be nice to see others go for it. Tight window which still is a bit worrisome but the good news is that even on these wide right solutions, some decent precip is being generated pretty far west...likely aided by the northern stream diving in and extending back an IVT. The bigger hits are the slower ones, I've noticed we have been at 72 hours for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It doesn’t . That was a closed stall low to our south. This is a different setup. Ray mentioned this has stall potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Ray mentioned this has stall potential As it gets northeast it will. We’re too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: I’d be pretty surprised at this point if this isn’t at least a SECS for eastern sections. Teleconnections are primed. 0z EPS and especially 6z GEFS were red herrings that the respective op runs were OTL. The H5 downstream ridging and positioning of UL trough both looked better for a track closer to the coast, which for whatever reason failed to translate on the ops. Also with respect to the GEFS- the mean was signficantly more amped than the op; pretty telling imo. And there were a lot of members 965-975 about 150 miles east of the cape. Hard not to get excited about this one at this stage. Eastern New England is sitting pretty right here... Writing to the general reader here ... a "straw-man argument" Those bold words above are about all this system has in support, which is typically a signal that many have trouble wrapping their heads around in lieu of actually seeing a stem-wound beauty of a cyclone on the charts. However, one way or the other, the teleconnections win. Sorry ... I don't personally feel very comfortable using the UKMET as a deterministic fall-back at any time ( it does have support as suggested below). These teleconnector curves and/or numbers ...they are not just numbers that we associated to certain meanings ... They actually are, for all intents and operations, reflecting mass distribution - literally... For example, if the NAO numbers are "down", there must by physical law be counter-balancing regions of mass that either alone or in the aggregate sum up to equal and opposite amount of "up." Simple precept: Mass is neither lost or destroyed in the ongoing maelstrom of the planetary system's circulation. Understanding that probably provides also the seeds to understanding what is meant by a "corrective event." ...If one of these indexes, say the PNA were to enter a period of time where the numbers are changing ...that means that the counter-balancing mass fields to the PNA (usually internally, around the edges, or nearby adjacently) will also then forced to enter a period(s) of adjustment. If a static synoptic atmosphere, conditions enter a calm state, but when perturbed by said forcing ... that "disturbs" said rested state = coastal ..or tornado...or whatever. That's at the root of it all really... at all scales for that matter. The sun heats the air mass over the interior land regions on a summer day until it becomes buoyant; that air starts to rise (that's akin to a teleconnector entering a phase change); the rising air instantiates a surface return flow of cooler stable oceanic boundary layer air to replace it. This response/balancing mechanism cools the coast. Thus, one would say, 'there is teleconnection that signals cooling on the coast' with the onset of a sea breeze. One regions mass was perturbed, and the a conjoining region was forced to change. We just don't label teleconnections for all scales, intents or purposes in that manner. Where we do is at the grander scope of hemispheric Meteorology... If the PNA is forced to significantly alter its phase state ... there is a teleconnection over N/A accordingly. So ..the reason I am going through all this is because we may very well not receive a meaningful impact event this week, despite the PNA change ... despite all this arguing for a 'corrective event'. However, there is a storm system that is going to evolve - that much is clear, and much to perhaps the chagrin of the hopefuls. Don't conflate missing out on a storm/disappointment therein, as some sort of failure in all this. We are not defeating the physical laws of mass distribution in the atmosphere when one is not happy with the outcome. It may seem obvious or silly to say.. .but, I've often read disgruntled people try to blame teleconnector adherence as some sort of set up for their misfortune, when it was the ...channeling of model cinema and/or storms for their happiness that was the real problem. There's also a question of thresholds, too. A region can be perturbed, but not enough. In this situation, however, I'd estimate changing the PNA from - 3 SD to +1.5 is probably enough, and well .. every GEFs member has 'some' kind of storm.. Again, impacting NE is not really a physical prerequisite for satisfying the above theoretical application. Just remember ... the "boxing day storm" ... that one was flattened down to pancake wave status ...and didn't come back until it was 36 hours out. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 As much as this appears on life support, there is still a critical piece here that is up in no man's land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: As much as this appears on life support, there is still a critical piece here that is up in no man's land. Life support? Seems like snow is highly likely Monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Life support? Seems like snow is highly likely Monday night For a big event, that's what everyone is looking for. I opined a day or two ago that baby blue skies aren't happening regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Huge improvement on the nam through 45.. But was pretty far east at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Huge improvement on the nam through 45.. But was pretty far east at 6z Yeah, even if this doesn't fully turn the corner it is darn close to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Yeah NAm with a jump west, but it was an eastern outlier. It's in a rather tasty position near HSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah NAm with a jump west, but it was an eastern outlier. It's in a rather tasty position near HSE. Better than the 6z GFS for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: Better than the 6z GFS for sure. There is that low NE of Maine. That would need to get out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.