DavisStraight Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 19 minutes ago, CT Rain said: We're totally on our own with this one compared to the NWS and other local stations. Your map looks similar to Channel 4 in Boston's map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 If we continue to weaken the primary tonight, we strengthen snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WthrJunkyME Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Off topic, but pretty dreamy nonetheless. My brother has a place in Mammoth Lakes and just sent me this. I’ve seen 6”/hr with thunder there a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 23 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The Catskills are going to get destroyed. Feet for those hill towns at 2,000ft there SW of ALB. They won't lose any to rain, IMO. Should start as pretty much snow there in the high terrain of NY. Agreed. The same thing happened in March 10. 40”+ above 2k. what are your thoughts for the southern greens? Im thinking a foot is a good call for Stratton/mt snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I'm a little surprised even BOX's 10% high end chance map is <1'' of snow for most inside 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I wouldn't under-sell the elevational aspect of this event either... I think everyone goes to heavy snow if that firehose develops as modeled BUT there's a big difference between 34F pounding snow and 31F pounding snow. Sure they both will accumulate but one is going to be a heck of a lot more efficient. I could see DIT or 1,000ft elevations doing 1"/hr snowfall at 31-32F while places under 500ft are doing a half inch per hour (on 0.1" liquid in the tipper per hour) at 34F. That type of difference adds up throughout an event like this with big QPF. Something where the top of Blue Hill has twice as much as anyone else in E.MA just because of the extra 500ft of elevation and temps there just that extra 1C cooler, aiding in accumulation processes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, DomNH said: I'm a little surprised even BOX's 10% high end chance map is <1'' of snow for most inside 495. Maybe they see something we don’t? I thought we had some users from BOX...wish they’d come on here and explain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 26 minutes ago, CT Rain said: We're totally on our own with this one compared to the NWS and other local stations. You are one of the few on air that understands the nuances of the Valley and how it tightens as you head N. Greenfield and Northampton an often be different worlds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: You are one of the few on air that understands the nuances of the Valley and how it tightens as you head N. Greenfield and Northampton an often be different worlds. He’s the best in the on air business in SNE. No doubt about it . Right there with Leonard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Agreed. The same thing happened in March 10. 40”+ above 2k. what are your thoughts for the southern greens? Im thinking a foot is a good call for Stratton/mt snow 8-12" were my thoughts for the SVT ski areas of Mt Snow, Stratton, Bromley area. Tough one as I think they'll snow easier than other areas because of the high elevation there and east flow orographic enhancement will lead to additional cooling from forced ascent. I still think ratios will be pretty pasty and 8:1 with 1.0-1.4" QPF (snow growth doesn't look that good, TBH) but if they are ripping aggregates it could change. I could see them going bigger though...if someone put up a 16" spot at 3,000ft that wouldn't be a huge surprise if the best moisture conveyor belt is a bit north of where its progged right now on the consensus (ie an RGEM type solution). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’d take the under with that look With the slp sitting under RI? , No you wouldn't...........lol. Its rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, DomNH said: I'm a little surprised even high end chance map is <1'' of snow for most inside 495. Well im not buying a warning snow for much of eastern mass, esp Ne mass at the moment. Its Certainly possible thou, there high end products are meh I believe NW CT could also over perform nicely along w berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: He’s the best in the on air business in SNE. No doubt about it . Right there with Leonard Awwwww, manlove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Highest odds for warning in sne look to be nw ct and Berks With primary trend south, they got a nice ceiling and floor, should that trend not go backwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Scooter the 18z btv wrf is a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Awwwww, manlove. He is right though. I have also grown to appreciate Janna Brown since she came on board at ABC 40, she is definitely not a rip and read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 23 minutes ago, Southshorewx said: Bouchard "fire hose " of rain. A ground hog would be just as useful as these flip flopping models. Predictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Well im not buying a warning snow for much of eastern mass, esp Ne mass at the moment. Its Certainly possible thou, there high end products are meh I believe NW CT could also over perform nicely along w berks Why especially NE Mass? I feel like they'd have the best chance at getting the dynamic cooling machine going? NE flow into that area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Highest odds for warning in sne look to be nw ct and Berks With primary trend south, they got a nice ceiling and floor, should that trend not go backwards Even though Greenfield is relatively low elevation, I like the trends today. Should be a decent pasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 32 minutes ago, JC-CT said: a) its not going to be heavy all the time everywhere and that might wet bulb to 34-35? Makes no sense. If it’s not happening heavy it’s not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: He’s the best in the on air business in SNE. No doubt about it . Right there with Leonard Some idiots will still call him out on Twitter, regardless of the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 25 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Isn't Tolland where I-84 levels out there for a bit before it heads back NE? Not that it matters as Ryan is obviously highlighting the high terrain in NE CT (its clear what he's trying to show viewers), its just funny if you aren't really sure where your town is? Thank you for being able to read a map. I thought I was alone, even when I highlighted it plain as day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Makes no sense. If it’s not happening heavy it’s not happening. ? I image a situation where there it snows when it's heavy and its drizzle when its not. There is always banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Thank you for being able to read a map. I thought I was alone, even when I highlighted it plain as day. Now i'm confused, I thought that was ORH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Now i'm confused, I thought that was ORH? For another 30 days, then it's BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 It really depends on how fast we cool and how heavy the rates are... the NAM kind of illustrates this well. Bob posted a map that gave se mass like 15”+ and NE Mass just a couple. I wouldn’t forecast that... but it shows what could happen if you cool just enough and get heavy rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Why esp Ne mass? I feel like they'd have the best chance at getting the dynamic cooling machine going? NE flow into that area? There is less forcing in that area except maybe on CMC Lol Now im seeing trends that End this earlier as well, and Thats a ugly combo when your banking on accums W this airmass Now if you want to say forcing will trend stronger then what you say has more merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 52 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Because, they aren't 7 degrees too warm. This isn't a CAD situation. The airmass sucks. Congrats you, under 800' we rain. I am inclined to agree here, I am not at all sold on big snows under 1k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 22 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Awwwww, manlove. Spooky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 28 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I wouldn't under-sell the elevational aspect of this event either... I think everyone goes to heavy snow if that firehose develops as modeled BUT there's a big difference between 34F pounding snow and 31F pounding snow. Sure they both will accumulate but one is going to be a heck of a lot more efficient. I could see DIT or 1,000ft elevations doing 1"/hr snowfall at 31-32F while places under 500ft are doing a half inch per hour (on 0.1" liquid in the tipper per hour) at 34F. That type of difference adds up throughout an event like this with big QPF. Something where the top of Blue Hill has twice as much as anyone else in E.MA just because of the extra 500ft of elevation and temps there just that extra 1C cooler, aiding in accumulation processes. I tend to agree with this in general, but the bulk of whatever snow falls outside of western SNE should happen after dark which should help mitigate accumulation issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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