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Potential 1/17-1/18 threat


BullCityWx

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1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

I just had a flashback to Jan 2017.  Which model had the warm-nose-of-death that we all wanted to discount?  I hope it wasn't the HRRR. 

Different concern in that case though.  That was elevated warm nose warmth.  Only warmth in this system is the initial sfc based boundary layer warmth, which by comparison is easier to overcome

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BL temps usually aren’t an issue so long as rates are decent.  Warm mid-levels, on the other hand...but that doesn’t look like an issue.  Also, I don’t think the HRRR at the end of its run is worth panicking over.  I’d be more worried about precip than temps for central NC (not that precip looks likely to be an issue).  Maybe this is the year Raleigh breaks the snow curse?

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2 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

850's are fine. Moisture will bring down the Arctic air in the upper atmosphere to get everyone below freezing and if not then you will still get snow at 35. This system supports snow above freezing. Everyone relax. Deep breaths. It's been a while, I know image.thumb.png.13294ff329b3b085e568c9daedfd83f0.png

Don't really care about watching mixed snow fall and not accumulate.

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Is the trough orientation tilted in a way that the snow runs into the eastern facing slopes causing essentialy the opposite of a NW flow event? That's what the latest HRRR looks like. It just pukes snow for hours and hours into the Lee. Not sure I've ever seen anything quite like this 

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58 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

B rad upping totals, back peddling ! Great work as usual! CJ had his 9 pm update and said we would wake up to dusting to maybe 1" , lol

I don't blame JC and CJ ONE bit for being conservative. They have been blasted in the past for being too aggressive and busting (and by YOU no less) so why wouldn't they be conservative, especially with a system that has looked anemic in our area up until the last 12 hours. And who's to say they won't end up being right? I think they did just fine with this one. As for KK, I agree she tends to be overly conservative, but she also happens to be the most accurate many times for that reason.

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2 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Is the trough orientation tilted in a way that the snow runs into the eastern facing slopes causing essentialy the opposite of a NW flow event? That's what the latest HRRR looks like. It just pukes snow for hours and hours into the Lee. Not sure I've ever seen anything quite like this 

It's the way the upper level vort is traversing the mountains.  It's creating a Lee side low where precip just explodes right at the Lee and then tracks east.  

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