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Queencitywx

Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

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4 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

Just adding this for some context: 12z GFS accumulation for the system. Thanks for starting the thread Queencitywx!

gfs_asnow_seus_25.png

Woohoo, another 4 inches for us. Big win. Wait, that's 6 days away. Shoot.

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Interesting thread starter given the ramifications of white dendrites actually accumulating on the ground :)

You can trace the origin of the wave on the Euro back to the Arctic Circle at the northern tip of Nunavut, Canada...and it drops down into the SE in Manitoba Mauler style, pinched between dual ridges in Western and Eastern Canada.

24ttCgi.gif

 

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

Interesting thread starter given the ramifications of white dendrites actually accumulating on the ground :)

You can trace the origin of the wave on the Euro back to the Arctic Circle at the northern tip of Nunavut, Canada...and it drops down into the SE in Manitoba Mauler style, pinched between dual ridges in Western and Eastern Canada.

24ttCgi.gif

 

Any analogs with similar 5h looks!?

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Very interesting that the Euro is so adamant about giving WNC snow.  I can't perceive though where this moisture is coming from with a glorified clipper.  It would seem to be that the real totals would be toward the east closer to the late blooming low. 

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2 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Very interesting that the Euro is so adamant about giving WNC snow.  I can't perceive though where this moisture is coming from with a glorified clipper.  It would seem to be that the real totals would be toward the east closer to the late blooming low. 

I felt the same way this morning. I think the trof orientation is allowing moisture return from the gulf. We'll see. It's encouraging that the GFS and NAVGEM have joined the EURO. 

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1 minute ago, SnowNiner said:

Very interesting that the Euro is so adamant about giving WNC snow.  I can't perceive though where this moisture is coming from with a glorified clipper.  It would seem to be that the real totals would be toward the east closer to the late blooming low. 

This Euro run brings the trough from positive to neutral tilt quicker....it's simply a dynamic system that is dropping down right on top of us

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1 minute ago, SnowNiner said:

Very interesting that the Euro is so adamant about giving WNC snow.  I can't perceive though where this moisture is coming from with a glorified clipper.  It would seem to be that the real totals would be toward the east closer to the late blooming low. 

Gulf tap, leeside trough , weirder things have happened. This looks a lot better than the last coastal storm for us further west. Still chances this goes a little more SW

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5 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Very interesting that the Euro is so adamant about giving WNC snow.  I can't perceive though where this moisture is coming from with a glorified clipper.  It would seem to be that the real totals would be toward the east closer to the late blooming low. 

There's a Tropical Moisture envelope sitting off the SE coast and Bahamas.  This envelope of tropical moisture has been there for the last three weeks.  For example, Super bomb storm and today's event over the East Coast.  Also, the flow comes out of the Gulf Coast for a bit of time.  Moisture is abundantly available, especially since the low hangs back for a bit and dives further southwest into the trough.  

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14 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

and the 12z Euro.  If the system pans out, the Euro is KING again!

ecmwf_tsnow_KU_charlotte_24.png

Euro hasn't been king all winter... or last winter...  It has been consistently beaten by the GFS and CMC for our area, in fact last I remember it was 0/5 or 0/6 on grit's model performance thread.

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

This Euro run brings the trough from positive to neutral tilt quicker....it's simply a dynamic system that is dropping down right on top of us

Thanks! Color me uber skeptical, but man I hope it's right.  It'd be nice to have 4 inches of cold powder.  Never seen anything like this to my recollection though.  

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Well, at lea

5 minutes ago, Tornadocane said:

There's a Tropical Moisture envelope sitting off the SE coast and Bahamas.  This envelope of tropical moisture has been there for the last three weeks.  For example, Super bomb storm and today's event over the East Coast.  Also, the flow comes out of the Gulf Coast for a bit of time.  Moisture is abundantly available. 

Well, at least the skies have had a chance to heal for this one. B)

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12 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Don't know how similar it is, but reminds me of the January 2003 widespread NC snow event. 

Just looking at the potential surface reflection and obs from that storm, it’s projected eerily similar. 

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

I didn't realize this was Wednesday and Thursday! :(

Im supposed to hit 49 on Wed, winning!

Hickory forecast high is 30 Wednesday.

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2 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

IMO EURO ensembles don't look as good as 00z. A lot of whiffs in there. Also a couple bombs 

eps isnt out yet unless you got it extremely early.

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