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BullCityWx

Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

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Just now, Tar Heel Snow said:

I don’t think I’ve ever seen them confidently forecast 4+ somewhere. They’re doing the right thing for TV. A broad 2” is enough for people to take seriously.

I think the last time was December of 2000.  That was the nail in the coffin.

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4 minutes ago, griteater said:

I would probably lean toward the broader precip footprint ideas of the global models (GFS, Euro, UKMet, CMC)....but look at the NAM/RGEM to hone in on where relative mins/maxes could occur

Thanks! As for most everybody saying temps won't be a concern, TWC has me light rain to snow tonight! :( already 42 also!

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1 hour ago, burrel2 said:

Me, Oconeexman, and lookout will hug the Hrrrx! What is this model again? lol

Anxious to see what the rgem looks like...

hrrrx_ref_frzn_seus_23.png

Add andersonSCgirl to that list!

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Thanks! As for most everybody saying temps won't be a concern, TWC has me light rain to snow tonight! :( already 42 also!

Since when do you listen to the weather channel forecasts? You should know how to look at soundings as well as anyone.

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Thanks! As for most everybody saying temps won't be a concern, TWC has me light rain to snow tonight! :( already 42 also!

LOL.  I used to have a screenshot of TWC forecasting rain for me while it was snowing outside, had been for a couple hours, and we ended up with at least 8 inches.  

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The RAP looks to ease worries for leeside downslopers.. This is only through 21 hours and much more will fall in Piedmont areas 

snku_acc.conus.png

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2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I think the last time was December of 2000.  That was the nail in the coffin.

That was the storm that made Fishel get ultra-conservative.  He posted totals equaling Carolina Crusher totals from earlier in the year.  The storm shifted east and was not as strong, no snow in Raleigh.  Since then it has been a few inches at best.  They did forecast more than 4" for last January's system - but that fizzled due to warm nose:

http://www.wral.com/weather/image_gallery/16401198/

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I’m late on this one, but this looks like a typical winter storm where I-95 mysteriously blocks/melts snow for NE SC? Is that accurate?

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Looks like radar is breaking up. Might skip right over Birmingham and redevelop south of us. The RGEM though shows snow until 1am for here. The nam and gfs show quite a bit less than that. Only light amount for about 4 hours. 

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2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

That's odd, that's like 6"+, where 90% of the models have had a snow minimum 

Lookout and burrell were talking about this earlier how the warm air bubble that usually hangs out in our area on the immediate lee side of the mtns. could possible be our friend this time. Will see.... beats seeing the dreaded snowhole that has been showing for a couple of days now!

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RE: soil temps/accums on pavement. 

1. I took a very unscientific reading of my soil temp this morning (food thermometer) and found it to be 31 degrees. That's not moving much today. 

2. In the early December storm, everything was covered, including the roads, after several days of temperatures well into the 60s, and that while it was snowing during daylight hours! 

 

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3 minutes ago, NorthernUpstateSC said:

Lookout and burrell were talking about this earlier how the warm air bubble that usually hangs out in our area on the immediate lee side of the mtns. could possible be our friend this time. Will see.... beats seeing the dreaded snowhole that has been showing for a couple of days now!

Interesting geography/atmospheric interactions. According to the CMC, a ot of that falls after 24hr is all I can tell. Tidbits isn't showing the 6hr avenged precip for me past 24hr. Band appears to have mostly pushed through there by then with only about 2in accums. 

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10 minutes ago, NorthernUpstateSC said:

Lookout and burrell were talking about this earlier how the warm air bubble that usually hangs out in our area on the immediate lee side of the mtns. could possible be our friend this time. Will see.... beats seeing the dreaded snowhole that has been showing for a couple of days now!

Well - there you go.  If that verifies, a paper needs to be written. 

IMG_1386.PNG

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RE: soil temps/accums on pavement. 
1. I took a very unscientific reading of my soil temp this morning (food thermometer) and found it to be 31 degrees. That's not moving much today. 
2. In the early December storm, everything was covered, including the roads, after several days of temperatures well into the 60s, and that while it was snowing during daylight hours! 
 
Absolutely. Soil temps on average are 5 or 6 degrees colder now compared to what they normally are on average when it snows due to the recent cold outbreak.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

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its nearly now casting time for many BUT this product will be extremely useful from the HRRR in the coming hours.

 

Notice the leeside enhancement the HRRR is showing.  Consequently those areas are seeing 3-4 inches on the latest HRRR.  This storm has a surprising amount of energy to work with. Even with a positive to neutral tilt this storm should really put out some nice snow across a large potion of the area

 

 

HRRR.png

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1 minute ago, fountainguy97 said:

its nearly now casting time for many BUT this product will be extremely useful from the HRRR in the coming hours.

 

Notice the leeside enhancement the HRRR is showing.  Consequently those areas are seeing 3-4 inches on the latest HRRR.  This storm has a surprising amount of energy to work with. Even with a positive to neutral tilt this storm should really put out some nice snow across a large potion of the area

 

 

 

The euro kinda showed enhancement in the same area last night, briefly. I think I saw it a few other places in addition.

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Graphic is from Meteogram..

NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 4m4 minutes ago

 
 

Every forecast has a range of possible outcomes. Here are some model produced outcomes for this upcoming snow event in #Raleigh #NCwx. While none of these forecasts will be 100% correct, understanding the distributions are helpful for our forecasters who try to account for each!DTrQ6BlX4AIw-eD.jpg

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7 minutes ago, Solak said:

Graphic is from Meteogram..

NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 4m4 minutes ago

 
 

Every forecast has a range of possible outcomes. Here are some model produced outcomes for this upcoming snow event in #Raleigh #NCwx. While none of these forecasts will be 100% correct, understanding the distributions are helpful for our forecasters who try to account for each!DTrQ6BlX4AIw-eD.jpg

Interesting that all of those are totally based on the American models and today's 12Z GFS is not included in there.

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