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Potential 1/17-1/18 threat


BullCityWx

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24 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

Would you potentially include Atlanta in the Columbus to Athens potential region or does Atlanta look to be too far west in your opinion?  Thanks 

Looks like atlanta will do ok, especially if you believe the higher resolution short range models...but they are sort of on the western edge of where the band will re-intensify. Best chances of the most accumulation are probably west/south and southeast/east of town. north and northeast of town is awfully close to the snowhole. 

23 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

Just catching up on lunch break. I had pretty much written this one off last night. Give me some lee enhancement surprise in the morning!

Don't blame you there. Our record here in the lee when dealing with precip and W/NW CAA is not very good to say the least. 

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Just now, griteater said:

The Euro has no interest in starting folks out with a period of rain other than maybe a little at the beginning

Makes sense seeing how the only layer above freezing will be the lowest 750 feet or so and will quickly cool once it wetbulbs and precip pulls the colder air down to the surface. NAM and RGEM are that way for NC as well I believe.

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22 minutes ago, weatherlover said:

Anybody else seem concerned that it looks like the main precip shield is starting to fall apart in Eastern TN?

Do not worry about it. If you look at the radar and see the digging taking place back in the sw around texas, which is spreading the precip out in a sw fashion. This is helping to actually set our system up in a more neutral (or less positive) fashion, which will allow for more redevelopment and precip. Game on IMHO. The more experienced persons/pros can correct me or add to this.

@griteater , @Wow and @Queencitywx

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18 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Look where that sweet spot is. :)

 

[IMG]

While it’s pretty to look at you know that it’s not going to be where it ends up. Getting so excited about seeing the sweet spot before it even starts doesn’t make sense. I will be willing to bet that it’s going to go to NW and be closer to Greensboro.  Just don’t get your hopes up based on that. 

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1 minute ago, snowinnc said:

While it’s pretty to look at you know that it’s not going to be where it ends up. Getting so excited about seeing the sweet spot before it even starts doesn’t make sense. I will be willing to bet that it’s going to go to NW and be closer to Greensboro.  Just don’t get your hopes up based on that. 

At this point, I would be surprised if Raleigh didn't get  2-3".  I'd put that as a floor.  That's a nice little snow event.  Get to finally watch a daytime snowfall with no real concern about mixing or changing over to rain.  Just a nice, steady, cold snowfall.

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5 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

Maps still looking good for this end of the triangle too! After the last several storms I’m still watching closely, but looks like this could finally be it for all of us triangle folk.

I'm so hesitant to get excited after so many RDU busts recently. I said that I was done getting excited, but this one is reeling me back in!

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Just now, Cold Rain said:

At this point, I would be surprised if Raleigh didn't get  2-3".  I'd put that as a floor.  That's a nice little snow event.  Get to finally watch a daytime snowfall with no real concern about mixing or changing over to rain.  Just a nice, steady, cold snowfall.

Yeah, It's been a long time.

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6 minutes ago, snowinnc said:

While it’s pretty to look at you know that it’s not going to be where it ends up. Getting so excited about seeing the sweet spot before it even starts doesn’t make sense. I will be willing to bet that it’s going to go to NW and be closer to Greensboro.  Just don’t get your hopes up based on that. 

you would be correct if we were talking about a big gomex low with CAD transfers and the works, however, this is a different set up where a fropa is redeveloping after crossing the apps

 

think about what you are implying, in order for the precip totals to shift westward the band would have to develop sooner and with higher intensity

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