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January 4-6 Coastal Bomb Observations/Nowcast


Baroclinic Zone

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For any BOX mets that lurk, I’d like to add kudos for a great aggressive forecast. I still think the blizz criteria determination needs work though. Yesterday should’ve counted. You can’t subjectively take 1/4sm obs because ASOS low vis blows and then nit pick 5min wind obs where maybe a couple of obs fell a few mph short. This was hours of near 0SM vis with high impact winds. If this doesn’t count just toss the warning option to the curb then. Everything just becomes a WSW. 

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8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

For any BOX mets that lurk, I’d like to add kudos for a great aggressive forecast. I still think the blizz criteria determination needs work though. Yesterday should’ve counted. You can’t subjectively take 1/4sm obs because ASOS low vis blows and then nit pick 5min wind obs where maybe a couple of obs fell a few mph short. This was hours of near 0SM vis with high impact winds. If this doesn’t count just toss the warning option to the curb then. Everything just becomes a WSW. 

No kidding. So why did we count  last year? And also, did we not have 1/4SM for 3 hrs after the 1 min lull of winds 3mph below criteria?

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No kidding. So why did we count  last year? And also, did we not have 1/4SM for 3 hrs after the 1 min lull of winds 3mph below criteria?

I looked back at the 2/9/17 obs. You’re right, that shouldn’t have counted either.

http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KBOS&time=GMT

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

When Dendrite thinks something should be a blizzard it probably should be as the board observation/quality control expert.

I just want consistency and a concrete definition. The whole thing is too subjective for me and people take their blizzards seriously.

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So this was the only ob that officially kept BOS from blizzard criteria? This is despite the 1754z ob and 1833z ob having gusts over 31 knots. So we're talking like a 15 min period of wind criteria that falls short by 2mph...but the blizzard definition of frequency of wind is subjective..."frequent gusts" over 35mph doesn't tell you how long of a lull there can be. The visibility criteria is more objective. It has to be continuous. 

KBOS 041810Z 35022G29KT 1/8SM R04R/1400V2400FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV005 M02/M03 A2906 RMK AO2 PK WND 34029/1810 PRESFR P0004 T10221028

 

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6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Stop stealing our blizzards!

My guess is that most of the public would feel it was a blizzard around Boston no matter what NWS classifies it as.

Although do most people only think of a blizzard as a 24” storm? Do they consider the wind?

Once you are convicted in the court of public opinion...

 

Also, Blizzard of 2018 is so much more marketable than "that really big storm in 2018 that was more intense than some of the other storms that winter".

 

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

For any BOX mets that lurk, I’d like to add kudos for a great aggressive forecast. I still think the blizz criteria determination needs work though. Yesterday should’ve counted. You can’t subjectively take 1/4sm obs because ASOS low vis blows and then nit pick 5min wind obs where maybe a couple of obs fell a few mph short. This was hours of near 0SM vis with high impact winds. If this doesn’t count just toss the warning option to the curb then. Everything just becomes a WSW. 

Valid argument indeed.

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Best winter storm since Boxing Day imo, but I lived in central LI up through 2015. So many of you guys will likely have others...

 

I think this was the best significant snow/wind combination I've experienced in my life though. I'm 30, so many of you may have others that predate me...

 

 

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59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

So this was the only ob that officially kept BOS from blizzard criteria? This is despite the 1754z ob and 1833z ob having gusts over 31 knots. So we're talking like a 15 min period of wind criteria that falls short by 2mph...but the blizzard definition of frequency of wind is subjective..."frequent gusts" over 35mph doesn't tell you how long of a lull there can be. The visibility criteria is more objective. It has to be continuous. 

KBOS 041810Z 35022G29KT 1/8SM R04R/1400V2400FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV005 M02/M03 A2906 RMK AO2 PK WND 34029/1810 PRESFR P0004 T10221028

 

A little birdie told me they use the 5min wind obs...so there were a few more than that mixed in.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=BOS

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well even though i wasn't overly impressed with yesterdays event personally for my house, as far as I am concerned it was a blizzard with the falling/blowing snow combo

even when the snow was light the vis with freezing fog and blowing snow was <1/4 mi

most blowing snow I have seen since boxing day debacle

 

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40 minutes ago, adk said:

Once you are convicted in the court of public opinion...

 

Also, Blizzard of 2018 is so much more marketable than "that really big storm in 2018 that was more intense than some of the other storms that winter".

 

And "marketable" is key.  Though bombogenesis is commonly in use by mets, and on here, I'd never heard the term "bomb cyclone" before Wednesday, though I've heard it many dozens of times since - the new ear toy for MSM.  4 years ago it was "polar vortex".

Finished with 13.0" here on 0.99" LE, with 11" coming noon-6 PM.  Visibility for those 6 hours ranged from 1/4 mile down to under 1/16 (at 4 PM, under The Band), but winds did not approach blizzard criterion until after the snowfall was about done, peak gusts were right around that 35 mph.  Odd to get 13" on 1/4, as we had the same exact amount on 1/4/2003 (and only got 4.5" more for the month.)  The only other January date with more than 8.0" since 1999 is the 27th, 16.0" from the 2015 blizzard, one of only 4 events here that I consider to have met the full blizz criteria.  (Others are 12/6-7/03, 12/21-22/08, 3/14/17.)

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6 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

I live at exit 3 off of rt3, my roommate plows at Colony Place at exit 7...maybe that is 6mi N of my house at the most. They changed to a heavy wet snow and picked up 6 or 7 inches.

I literally just missed out on this storm...crazy how that works

Ouch. I thought you'd do a little better..that r/s line was stubborn.

Areas to my north and to my west about 10-15 miles had 2-3x more than me. 

 

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