JAN 4th Coastal

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea we're cutting the less but the finish line is fast approaching. I would feel better with where we are if I lived east of 95 or we had 24 more hours. But if this ends up like last last January when I got a few flurries while ocean city and NYC get buried I'd have rather it stayed east of Bermuda and saved me having to even think about it. 

ETA:  no offense to those on the Delmarva. I don't begrudge you your snow. Enjoy it. But it's just human nature. If the storm was 500 miles away you don't even think about it. But when it's close enough to smell the snow it's on your mind. Two years in a row same time of year is a bit tough to take. 

Yeah I completely understand. Even at my house this could easily be pretty meh. Globals aren't great for mby- an inch or 2, maybe 3. I firmly believe to get into the good bands as this thing wraps up, you gotta be pretty much right on the coast. That is where I will be for this one.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Anyone see this on the southern board? 
 Currently,
water vapor imagery shows the amplified system already acquiring a
neutral tilt as it moves into western Alabama. Additional height
falls are indicated upstream over the plains and the fear persists
that an injection of cold and dry air into the back of the trough
axis will deepen the feature more sharply and farther west than
indicated by the models. This would result in snowfall being
produced farther inland than featured in the operational models,
possibly across a good chunk of our forecast area. 

Source?

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

7 minutes ago, Benchmark said:

Anyone see this on the southern board? 
 Currently,
water vapor imagery shows the amplified system already acquiring a
neutral tilt as it moves into western Alabama. Additional height
falls are indicated upstream over the plains and the fear persists
that an injection of cold and dry air into the back of the trough
axis will deepen the feature more sharply and farther west than
indicated by the models. This would result in snowfall being
produced farther inland than featured in the operational models,
possibly across a good chunk of our forecast area. 

Source?

One of many local hallucinating wishcasters.  

[aldie 22]

If you start hearing rain obs or mixed precip down south then I think we see a western expansion. If we start seeing snow on magnolia trees then I'm out

[Ralph Wiggum]

One of many local hallucinating wishcasters.  

Ah, I thought maybe it nws. Thanks for replying.

[RichmondTarHeel]

Just wait till Obs in the Hampton/Chesapeake area start mentioning mixing with sleet.  Then we’ll know the I-95 folks are truly in the game. 

[Birds~69]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

One of many local hallucinating wishcasters.  

Ah, I thought maybe it nws. Thanks for replying.

Greenville Spartanburg NWS ?

[Paleocene]

Has anyone posted this link to the GOES-16 imagery yet? Sun is coming up, great place for wishcasting and radar hallucinating: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-conus-10-48-0-100

[SnowGolfBro]

3 minutes ago, Benchmark said:

Anyone see this on the southern board? 

 Currently,
water vapor imagery shows the amplified system already acquiring a
neutral tilt as it moves into western Alabama. Additional height
falls are indicated upstream over the plains and the fear persists
that an injection of cold and dry air into the back of the trough
axis will deepen the feature more sharply and farther west than
indicated by the models. This would result in snowfall being
produced farther inland than featured in the operational models,
possibly across a good chunk of our forecast area. 

All the buzz words i like to hear. Almost like it was written by a weenie...

[Eskimo Joe]

37 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

If this materializes, I would think Mount Holly might consider a Blizzard warning.

Rehoboth Beach, DE-

Tonight

Snow, mainly after 10pm. Low around 26. Windy, with an east wind 9 to 14 mph becoming north 19 to 29 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Thursday

Snow, mainly before 1pm. Areas of blowing snow. High near 29. Windy, with a northwest wind around 33 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Thursday Night

A slight chance of snow before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 14. Wind chill values as low as -2. Windy, with a northwest wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 47 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Those winds do not meet the criteria of a blizzard warning, "Sustained wind or frequent gusts greater than or equal to 35 mph will accompany falling and/or blowing snow to frequently reduce visibility to less than 1/4 mile for three or more hours."

[Ralph Wiggum]

All the buzz words i like to hear. Almost like it was written by a weenie...

So is it an official nws disco or just a random post on the forum?

[southmdwatcher]

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

One of many local hallucinating wishcasters.  

I saw that and it was a cut and paste from NWS Greenville-Spartanburg AFD this morning.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[Birds~69]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

5 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

All the buzz words i like to hear. Almost like it was written by a weenie...

So is it an official nws disco or just a random post on the forum?

Nah...it's for real-----> http://tinyurl.com/y7zwjwrx

[Birds~69]

Just now, Birds~69 said:

Nah...it's for real-----> http://tinyurl.com/y7zwjwrx

2nd paragraph..

[NorthArlington101]

Yeah, the SE forum is getting all excited about the storm going negative earlier then forecast. Guess we'll find out. 

[mattie g]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah, the SE forum is getting all excited about the storm going negative earlier then forecast. Guess we'll find out. 

Weenies. Just like us.

[mattie g]

10 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

Just wait till Obs in the Hampton/Chesapeake area start mentioning mixing with sleet.  Then we’ll know the I-95 folks are truly in the game. 

Sleet obs would be fine, but (and absolutely no offense to our southeast VA brethren) since this is an IMBY game I want to see rain obs from down there.

[ovechkin]

Saw what is below on the SE forum. I cannot speak at all to its validity, may be 100% incorrect. Just found it interesting.

 

 

"WXSouth just posted this to his Facebook page.

Batton down the hatches and hold on tight along the East Coast--This thing is about to enter full Beast Mode and is going to max out its energy all along the East Coast in rare fashion from Florida to Canada, slamming the Entire Eastern Seaboard of America, in a nearly once in a lifetime setup.

All ingredients are now coming together rapidly with tremendous energy aloft, in the warm waters and incredible barocliinic thermal boundary, with a tremendous negative tilt southern trough about to fully phase in a very unusual spot in the Southeast. The fully phased storm will bomb out as it rides north, up the entire east Coast, hugging the Coast and producing Blizzard Conditions from North Carolina to Maine as time goes by. Heavy snow and ice totals all the way to Florida and Georgia with the biggest snow and ice drop in Georgia to Florida in Decades.

The system is pulling further west, having an earlier head start than forecast in the northeast Gulf of Mexico and will rapidly intensify and expand through the eastern halves of the Carolinas and Virginia and now places more areas of the Piedmont in snow totals as well. But the blizzard portion should reside from eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia and up the Eastern Seaboard late tonight and Thursday, with up to a foot of windswept snow, and possibly thundersnow and thundersleet episodes very near the immediate east coast at times, with increasing winds.
If your area was expected to be on the western edge of the storm, pay close attention now and some forecasts have already been changed, many more are likely to be changed and includes some major metros like Columbia, Charlotte, Raleigh, Richmond and DC.  This is a dynamite setup and the fuse has been lit, now it's wait and see.
Following the storm, more intense cold comes well south, with below zero Wind Chills again as far south as Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas."

[Quasievil]

1 minute ago, ovechkin said:

Saw what is below on the SE forum. I cannot speak at all to its validity, may be 100% incorrect. Just found it interesting.

 

 

"WXSouth just posted this to his Facebook page.

Batton down the hatches and hold on tight along the East Coast--This thing is about to enter full Beast Mode and is going to max out its energy all along the East Coast in rare fashion from Florida to Canada, slamming the Entire Eastern Seaboard of America, in a nearly once in a lifetime setup.

All ingredients are now coming together rapidly with tremendous energy aloft, in the warm waters and incredible barocliinic thermal boundary, with a tremendous negative tilt southern trough about to fully phase in a very unusual spot in the Southeast. The fully phased storm will bomb out as it rides north, up the entire east Coast, hugging the Coast and producing Blizzard Conditions from North Carolina to Maine as time goes by. Heavy snow and ice totals all the way to Florida and Georgia with the biggest snow and ice drop in Georgia to Florida in Decades.

The system is pulling further west, having an earlier head start than forecast in the northeast Gulf of Mexico and will rapidly intensify and expand through the eastern halves of the Carolinas and Virginia and now places more areas of the Piedmont in snow totals as well. But the blizzard portion should reside from eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia and up the Eastern Seaboard late tonight and Thursday, with up to a foot of windswept snow, and possibly thundersnow and thundersleet episodes very near the immediate east coast at times, with increasing winds.
If your area was expected to be on the western edge of the storm, pay close attention now and some forecasts have already been changed, many more are likely to be changed and includes some major metros like Columbia, Charlotte, Raleigh, Richmond and DC.  This is a dynamite setup and the fuse has been lit, now it's wait and see.
Following the storm, more intense cold comes well south, with below zero Wind Chills again as far south as Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas."

Now THAT'S a weenie post. Or is it? Damn, he got me!

[SabreAce33]

None of the mets around here have indicated any chance of phasing in our vicinity.  I assume that doesn't change even with a decent tick West and additional intensification?

[mappy]

please go to the southern forum to discuss their weenie posts. 

[Maximum lawman]

2 minutes ago, Quasievil said:

Now THAT'S a weenie post. Or is it? Damn, he got me!

Except it doesn't address the key feature. What's happens south of our latitude is a smaller issue then what happens in the upper air west of our longitude. 

[das]

Very pretty:

[RichmondTarHeel]

What do we need for the low to phase with the NS instead of being kicked out by the NS?  Is that even a possibility in the slightest?

[Quasievil]

3 minutes ago, Maximum lawman said:

Except it doesn't address the key feature. What's happens south of our latitude is a smaller issue then what happens in the upper air west of our longitude. 

Agree. Both of the discussions, (SC NWS and WXSouth) don't talk about our latitudes. Not saying it doesn't completely matter but the dynamics are different. It is hard not to be a weenie about it when it's so close and will be so powerful though.

[hazwoper]

29 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

One of many local hallucinating wishcasters.  

It’s clearly an NWS office.  Check the hot links to the definitions 

[mattie g]

4 minutes ago, Maximum lawman said:

Except it doesn't address the key feature. What's happens south of our latitude is a smaller issue then what happens in the upper air west of our longitude. 

The two things can be directly related though.

I'm not saying that it happens this way, but if the storm forms a little farther west, and the NS vort dives in under the back of the developing storm, then it stands to reason that the track will be west. And even if the vort does kick the storm east, the storm will have started farther west, thus allowing us in the 95 corridor a bit of breathing room to get some extra snowflakes in before it moves along.

[Voyager]

3 minutes ago, Quasievil said:

Agree. Both of the discussions, (SC NWS and WXSouth) don't talk about our latitudes. Not saying it doesn't completely matter but the dynamics are different. It is hard not to be a weenie about it when it's so close and will be so powerful though.

Even the models that brought the beast close to OBX had it shunted east from that location, so not sure what the implications are north of the Tidewater area.

[Bob Chill]

Personally, I like seeing those disco's from the south NWS and WxSouth are NOT weenie sources...well...not the weenie kind I ignore anyway. We need a big bully to push things west. Small shifts in development are meaningful. 

With that being said, if my yard gets more than 1" then it's a pretty big win. I want leesburg's yard to get 1". That's what I'm rooting for....heh. 

[clskinsfan]

If the RGEM continues to show precip out here at 12Z I think you guys to the east should be in good shape. I love that model in the short range and we should be entering it's wheelhouse with it's next run. I am not expecting any accumulations, AGAIN, but it would be nice to see some flakes out of this.