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JAN 4th Coastal


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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No even if that happens...that storm chaser group from PA that made that map is a joke. Straight hype everything. My wife followed them for some reason and their stuff is always a joke. 

just so ya know....

that group is also frowned upon by the rest of the PA storm chaser groups...

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8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

If you get a chance. Glance at the water vapor loop and see what you think. To me it looks as if the kicker is verifying farther north. And that we are seeing a stronger quicker piece of energy under-riding the kicker that looks as if it is beginning to drop down the west side of the initial phase for a possible 2'nd phase. If I am reading that right that would mean a farther north track from the coastal before the hard turn right and a possible closer approach to the shore if in fact we are seeing a possible 2'nd phase occur to our south. Or am I just being a weenie. :)

This loops shows it pretty well. We need that kicker coming out of Canada to dive straight south instead of SE. That is not what I am seeing here.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=global-northernhemi-08-48-1-100

northernhemi.08.20180103.081539.jpg

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It's pretty much nowcat, satellite, water vapor and radar time

really snug to coast with precipitation well inland , not even formed yet but still impressive with more to come. Models mishandled departing Arctic high ne of  Nova Scotia, it has served to snug storm to coast and not send it out

our bigger threat  may actually be rain as opposed to a whiff

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2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This loops shows it pretty well. We need that kicker coming out of Canada to dive straight south instead of SE. That is not what I am seeing here.

northernhemi.08.20180103.081539.jpg

yea but its further north than modeled...it would quick the storm out further north?

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3 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

Friend just east of Charlotte, NC said it's snowing there.  Probably means very little to us, but that's definitely wayyyy further West than the models were showing. 

like a flurry or two or like real steady light snow?

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7 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said:

It's pretty much nowcat, satellite, water vapor and radar time

really snug to coast with precipitation well inland , not even formed yet but still impressive with more to come. Models mishandled departing Arctic high ne of  Nova Scotia, it has served to snug storm to coast and not send it out

our bigger threat  may actually be rain as opposed to a whiff

i wouldn't underestimate the dry air on the northwestern side.  radar loops good, but how much of that becomes precipitation reaching the ground is the question.  not really sure i understand the rain part.  this storm has always been about how much precip, not what type.

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IF you compare the euro from last night, it might not be a big shift in our area but it was a substantial shift for NJ. They went from a light event to a warning level event over a large area. Overall, it was a big shift for short leads from the euro. Pretty much in chips fall mode at this point. Hopefully the NAMs/RGEM don't do their last minute haircut in a few hours. By 0z it's probably safe to trust the mesos for our area in general. 

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6 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

Friend just east of Charlotte, NC said it's snowing there.  Probably means very little to us, but that's definitely wayyyy further West than the models were showing. 

Most of the models have precip into central nc before the system starts getting pushed east by the ns energy. That said, I'm still watching and hoping!

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

IF you compare the euro from last night, it might not be a big shift in our area but it was a substantial shift for NJ. They went from a light event to a warning level event over a large area. Overall, it was a big shift for short leads from the euro. Pretty much in chips fall mode at this point. Hopefully the NAMs/RGEM don't do their last minute haircut in a few hours. By 0z it's probably safe to trust the mesos for our area in general. 

Euro also upped totals in a big way for coastal plain of NC. You mentioned a bit ago that most of the good GFS members for us showed 6+ for them. Perhaps a sign. 

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3 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

He's in Monroe, NC.  He says light snow, but keep in mind he doesn't see it often.  Probably flurries.  Not heavy enough to catch it on camera, yet.  I'm asking him to keep me updated. 

That matches up with radar returns in the area.  Euro has the Charlotte area bone dry.  Hopefully a sign that the euro is out to lunch with the western edge.  

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