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JAN 4th Coastal


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5 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

The HRRR at the end of its run. So it begins.....

 

 

 

 

HRRR.jpg

Looks too far east, but it is the end of its run. 6z NAM was disappointing to me. I was hoping for another big west shift that didn't come. Running out of time now for something significant, but maybe it surprises. Just a 50 mile shift or so would be huge.

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If this materializes, I would think Mount Holly might consider a Blizzard warning.

Rehoboth Beach, DE-

Tonight

Snow, mainly after 10pm. Low around 26. Windy, with an east wind 9 to 14 mph becoming north 19 to 29 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Thursday

Snow, mainly before 1pm. Areas of blowing snow. High near 29. Windy, with a northwest wind around 33 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Thursday Night

A slight chance of snow before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 14. Wind chill values as low as -2. Windy, with a northwest wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 47 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

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Looks too far east, but it is the end of its run. 6z NAM was disappointing to me. I was hoping for another big west shift that didn't come. Running out of time now for something significant, but maybe it surprises. Just a 50 mile shift or so would be huge.
I think we are pretty much where we are going to be on most of the models. Windshield wiper stuff now and I dont expect any major shifts one way or the other. Most reliable guidance is inline with each other. Sorry for western zones but for eastern section take this for a win......it was in Bermuda 3 days ago.
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3 hours ago, MDstorm said:

Yup.  This one is going to hurt west of the bay as depicted on most guidance.  Still a fascinating storm, but tough to watch.  Here’s hoping for some last minute pleasant surprises.

MDstorm

How is it going to hurt.  It is not like the rug is getting pulled out from under us.  If we get anything it is a plus.

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1 minute ago, Interstate said:

How is it going to hurt.  It is not like the rug is getting pulled out from under us.  If we get anything it is a plus.

I guess, but anytime the Eastern Shore and the other cities northeast of us get pummeled and we don't, it stings. The fact the Eastern Shore is having a better snow season than us and that places well into the southeast will have as much, if not more, snow than us this year just out of one storm is also pretty depressing. We've had one legit snow event in basically three years now. It was amazing no doubt, but it makes the close calls sting. At least this doesn't look like a HECS, unless the latest NAM is correct.

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3 minutes ago, Interstate said:

How is it going to hurt.  It is not like the rug is getting pulled out from under us.  If we get anything it is a plus.

It seems as though a period of snow from DC/Baltimore is very likely with an inch or two. But the heavy returns stay just to the east.

It will still be nice. Disappointing when we hear big totals from coastal communities, but snow and having the ground covered will be nice.

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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
20 minutes ago, osfan24 said:
Looks too far east, but it is the end of its run. 6z NAM was disappointing to me. I was hoping for another big west shift that didn't come. Running out of time now for something significant, but maybe it surprises. Just a 50 mile shift or so would be huge.

I think we are pretty much where we are going to be on most of the models. Windshield wiper stuff now and I dont expect any major shifts one way or the other. Most reliable guidance is inline with each other. Sorry for western zones but for eastern section take this for a win......it was in Bermuda 3 days ago.

I think one more slight shift west in the precip field but in general I think the envelope has been licked

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

If this materializes, I would think Mount Holly might consider a Blizzard warning.

Rehoboth Beach, DE-

Tonight

Snow, mainly after 10pm. Low around 26. Windy, with an east wind 9 to 14 mph becoming north 19 to 29 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Thursday

Snow, mainly before 1pm. Areas of blowing snow. High near 29. Windy, with a northwest wind around 33 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Thursday Night

A slight chance of snow before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 14. Wind chill values as low as -2. Windy, with a northwest wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 47 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

I just told my dad the same thing. That's basically his forecast as well down in Millville. I told him 5-10" with potential for more pending banding. Last January they called for 4-8" and he got 15" so it's definitely doable in this setup. Gotta love weather man. Sub 965 off ORF and we're hoping to see something of interest west of 95. Lesson for anyone is upper levels rule all. 

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3 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Depending on what method you use for snowfall, Kuchara is around 4/5" for you and Ferrier Method is around 2-4". NAM 12km is closer to 1-2", but that's a heck of a lot better than what we were looking like 24 hours ago. 

Remember, just hug the model with the most snow. Works every time........

I can't find any to hug up here. 

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4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I guess, but anytime the Eastern Shore and the other cities northeast of us get pummeled and we don't, it stings. The fact the Eastern Shore is having a better snow season than us and that places well into the southeast will have as much, if not more, snow than us this year just out of one storm is also pretty depressing. We've had one legit snow event in basically three years now. It was amazing no doubt, but it makes the close calls sting. At least this doesn't look like a HECS, unless the latest NAM is correct.

It was the same last year.  Va Beach got a Blizzard and we got nothing.  Almost to the day.

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I know most hate the srefs but they went way east and now the blob of uncertainty on the mslp is to the ene of the low. Completely lost the western members it looks like.

Interesting. Maybe it's because I've been tracking this storm forever, but it will be really interesting to see which models prove most accurate on this one.

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I know most hate the srefs but they went way east and now the blob of uncertainty on the mslp is to the ene of the low. Completely lost the western members it looks like.

SREF tends to be over-dispersed in terms of track for East coast cyclones, particularly early on in the forecast, so I wouldn't read too much into that.

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1 hour ago, Mdecoy said:

This is very good considering where we were just 24 hours ago. GFS yesterday was a swing and a miss.

This thing is still trending west each and every run.

Yea we're cutting the less but the finish line is fast approaching. I would feel better with where we are if I lived east of 95 or we had 24 more hours. But if this ends up like last last January when I got a few flurries while ocean city and NYC get buried I'd have rather it stayed east of Bermuda and saved me having to even think about it. 

ETA:  no offense to those on the Delmarva. I don't begrudge you your snow. Enjoy it. But it's just human nature. If the storm was 500 miles away you don't even think about it. But when it's close enough to smell the snow it's on your mind. Two years in a row same time of year is a bit tough to take. 

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Anyone see this on the southern board? 

 Currently,
water vapor imagery shows the amplified system already acquiring a
neutral tilt as it moves into western Alabama. Additional height
falls are indicated upstream over the plains and the fear persists
that an injection of cold and dry air into the back of the trough
axis will deepen the feature more sharply and farther west than
indicated by the models. This would result in snowfall being
produced farther inland than featured in the operational models,
possibly across a good chunk of our forecast area. 

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4 minutes ago, Scraff said:

WBAL forecast this morning for the DC/Baltimore corridor was 1-4”. That should cover it! Lol. 

Ava was pretty clear it was a gamble. That places west like Frederick/Westminster could see nothing, far eastern Baltimore County seeing 2" or so. Tight gradient and little shifts could make all the difference. 

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