Hoth Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: More often than not they underestimate intensity Looks pretty robust on wv to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I just went back and looked at H5 on the 12z GGEM and the 12z GFS, The main differences are sharper trough and slightly west, And the northern stream vort digging further south and capturing the slp and tugging it back to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I just went back and looked at H5 on the 12z GGEM and the 12z GFS, The main differences are sharper trough and slightly west, And the northern stream vort digging further south and capturing the slp and tugging it back to the NW. Yes, more snow for my house! Looks like it to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: I just went back and looked at H5 on the 12z GGEM and the 12z GFS, The main differences are sharper trough and slightly west, And the northern stream vort digging further south and capturing the slp and tugging it back to the NW. Question is, why are they not seeing the same thing and which is correct (if either is)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said: Question is, why are they not seeing the same thing and which is correct (if either is)? Good question, My guess is is how ea model is handling the placement of all these different pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: Good question, My guess is is how ea model is handling the plaant of all these different pieces. I guess the other question is what is a bias of the cmc model and does the rpm also have a Bias at 84hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 29 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: That’s true...meanwhile, you have been on this one like white on rice, I had pretty much given up on it early on, Could still be wrong..we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 CMC definitely been trending west... but still not enough consensus to verify - yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Also take a blend of 5 different models... ECMWF, GFS, CMC, NAVGEM, JMA at the same time and you get the location about where the CMC is... Canadian model doing a decent job on the precip field also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Hanging our hats on marignal guidance is all west zones have. Not the best place to be but if NNE can pull a rogue arw member out of their arse back in March for verification, anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 SREF isn't the best, as noted by some earlier, but I do like how I-95 locations from PVD to PWM are over 1.0" of QPF on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Reading the Charleston Sc, Wilmington NC, discos i wonder why these offices weigh the gfs so much for the coastal ...especially since it's horrible with east coast cyclones. Is this just some outdated political correctness at these offices (most offices) or what am i missing or pressure to use the "American model" Like, its better to be incorrect w everyone else and use gfs than go away from the herd and be right a bit more bc when ur wrong and on your own u got some explaining to do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Reading the Charleston Sc, Wilmington NC, discos i wonder why these offices weigh the gfs so much for the coastal ...especially since it's horrible with east coast cyclones. Is this just some outdated political correctness at these offices (most offices) or what am i missing It's really not that bad most of the time. It struggles with high intensity cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 47 minutes ago, Hoth said: Looks pretty robust on wv to me. This thing will look like a beast regardless of where it tracks... should be impressive on satellite and water vapor over the next few days. Gonna take a strong shortwave to get a low down into the 950mb range. The East Coast images should be awesome. Can't wait for the high res GOES imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, powderfreak said: This thing will look like a beast regardless... should be impressive on satellite and water vapor over the next few days. Gonna take a strong shortwave to get a low down into the 950mb range. March 2014 was impressive too. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: It's really not that bad most of the time. It struggles with high intensity cyclones. This is a High intensity cyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: This thing will look like a beast regardless of where it tracks... should be impressive on satellite and water vapor over the next few days. Gonna take a strong shortwave to get a low down into the 950mb range. The East Coast images should be awesome. Can't wait for the high res GOES imagery. Agreed. Loops will be cached for later reference, no doubt. Spank bank material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Reading the Charleston Sc, Wilmington NC, discos i wonder why these offices weigh the gfs so much for the coastal ...especially since it's horrible with east coast cyclones. Is this just some outdated political correctness at these offices (most offices) or what am i missing Like, its better to be incorrect w everyone else and use gfs than go away from the herd and be right a bit more bc when ur wrong and on your own u got some explaining to do? 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: It's really not that bad most of the time. It struggles with high intensity cyclones. GFS has a little more respect in the Carolinas and isn't as sensitive with bias as further north. I haven't live up here long enough to understand why y'all hate the GFS, but it does decent with southern events (especially when blended with the Euro). NAM is often too far west and overly-amped in the Carolinas, but it can score few coups with the mixed precip events. The way we forecast winter events in the south, it's better to be conservative than to be proactive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: March 2014 was impressive too. Just saying. Honestly don't remember that storm... but yeah ocean storms can have incredible imagery. Like I said, regardless of track it will look like a beaut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxBlue said: GFS has a little more respect in the Carolinas and isn't as sensitive with bias as further north. I haven't live up here long enough to understand why y'all hate the GFS, but it does decent with southern events (especially when blended with the Euro). NAM is often too far west and overly-amped in the Carolinas, but it can score few coups with the mixed precip events. The way we forecast winter events in the south, it's better to be conservative than to be proactive. It is also like that up here most of the time. Not quite as bad as the ARW based family but it gets amp happy a lot of the time. Thus it's one of my favorite models to look at and hope for, ha. The problem with the GFS is there have been a few very large short-term busts with tracks of coastal storms. So its hard to trust it at all, but the same is true for the NAM/WRF/SREF family because they can get overly excited. The truth is usually between them, which is a solid event for eastern New England in this case of wind and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Honestly don't remember that storm... but yeah ocean storms can have incredible imagery. Like I said, regardless of track it will look like a beaut. I remember it...my father passed during the lead in. Ugh...became clear it would whiff night of the 4th, then he was gone 12 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 As has been stated before, GFS doesn’t handle phasing of streams well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I love how you guys have suddenly talked yourselves into the CMC being a good model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 GFS also likes southern steam, northern streams seem to be a weak dpot GGEM is more northern stream dominant. EURO is still the go to around here but has its biases, of which is holding back energy in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 0z models out soon hoping they start to converge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 0z models out soon hoping they start to converge... Yeah I think this is our final shot out here in western mass, cross your fingers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 One factor to remember with this and all other storms this season is that this is my winter and everyone else is just living in it. All the snow stolen over the past decade is being returned, all the whiffs and underperformers of yore are all being whiped clean. It is my season and all of the snow shall be mine. All the clippers over perform, the coastals give me a deform band, te cold is unrelenting, the cutters slide trend south, and the pack grows evermore! I am only half joking. Question: why is no one talking about the Swiss model any more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 FWIW ( not much )--21Z SREFs are more robust vs 15Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: FWIW ( not much )--21Z SREFs are more rbust vs 15Z. Where does one find the SREF's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, WintersComing said: Where does one find the SREF's? In the trashcan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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