78Blizzard Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: This is what BOX was saying until the most recent AFD: The lead shortwave will be entering the NW CONUS this morning but second shortwave which is the critical piece in determining the amplification of the Great Lakes trough is still over the Pacific and moving into western Canada this morning. This shortwave will not be well sampled by upper air network until tonight so suspect 00z Tue or 12z Tue model suite will have a better handle on resolving the finer details. Thanks for clearing that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: Thanks for clearing that up. But I think Tip is right, too. For the Euro, maybe we need to wait until the overnight run to include it. But most of the other stuff should have sampled data for the off hour runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I mentioned that this morning, regarding sampling of the southern and northern s/w's. They are not in a data sparse area...but a little sharper and things can trend much more favorable. 18z GEFS were better than 12z it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 18z GEFS aren't going to excite western folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 18z GEFS aren't going to excite western folks.Actually looked like the 18z ticked a little bit west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I mentioned that this morning, regarding sampling of the southern and northern s/w's. They are not in a data sparse area...but a little sharper and things can trend much more favorable. 18z GEFS were better than 12z it seems. Telling you.. tomorrow morning and midday , ****e gonna hit fan as the entire forum is crushed . This is how these big ones always work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 35 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Sampling is mostly voodoo BS. It doesn't always have to mean a huge shift, but its very real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 25 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 18z GEFS aren't going to excite western folks. That blows. Give me the GEPS. 0.1* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I think all in all today was a decent outcome. Most models trended west with many with large storm at or around the benchmark. Just need to keep seeing the trends and get that through to dig and tilt a bit more and most or all of the area has a good event . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Telling you.. tomorrow morning and midday , ****e gonna hit fan as the entire forum is crushed . This is how these big ones always work 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: BS. It doesn't always have to mean a huge shift, but its very real. There may be some epic meltdowns setting up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 hour ago, dryslot said: 18z Reggie Man that gradient from NE MA to BDL...that's coming back down to earth after it's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Man that gradient from NE MA to BDL... Looks like a down slope dandy in the CTRV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: There may be some epic meltdowns setting up here. Yes--better sampling does not mean better outcome. Simply better prediction. -0.6* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The track of the low between 35N and 40N appears to be slowly turning more "easterly" or less "northerly" on models and ensembles. I like the idea of a low more tucked or at least the dominant low being tucked closer down by the Carolinas but that is not translating to a low over the bench mark so.....what gets that's done Would appear a more poleward western ridge and a stronger southern stream may pump the heights along east coast better, otherwise i dont see this low hitting people outside of CJ-cape (unless there is a dual low structure ENE of dominant low that pinwheels NW? So ya congrats scooter Im trying to understand HOW this goes over benchmark, i.e what needs to happen I see west trends for those in Carolina's /Virginia from cleaner phase/ and deepening and the NW tug but then scooting ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Yes--better sampling does not mean better outcome. Simply better prediction. -0.6* More often than not they underestimate intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Im just not buying an intensity change from N Stream that brings this up the coast Im Hoping im missing something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Im just not buying an intensity change from N Stream that brings this up the coast Im Hoping im missing something Doesn't have to happen, but its a very real phenomenon. My money is also on the s stream coming my further west than modeled...but again, maybe it doesn't. We'll see.. not an easy call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Im just not buying an intensity change from N Stream that brings this up the coast Im Hoping im missing something We need a sharper trough with more negative tilt, I think a stronger northern stream vort would dig further south helping to change the trough orientation or for the whole trough to end up further west, Usually a stronger coastal low would get this to track further west, But not in this case, A faster cleaner phase @H5 would also help to capture the slp and tug it back NW as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Telling you.. tomorrow morning and midday , ****e gonna hit fan as the entire forum is crushed . This is how these big ones always work But if it isn't eventually a big one, that rule doesn't apply. Lol. I am less enthused each model cycle. 38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: BS. It doesn't always have to mean a huge shift, but its very real. Agreed, definitely a real issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Telling you.. tomorrow morning and midday , ****e gonna hit fan as the entire forum is crushed . This is how these big ones always work You think it's going to track east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: We need a sharper trough with more negative tilt, I think a stronger northern stream vort would dig further south helping to change the trough orientation or for the whole trough to end up further west, Usually a stronger coastal low would get this to track further west, But not in this case, A faster cleaner phase @H5 would also help to capture the slp and tug it back NW as well. Earlier phasing would yield this as well. We would need the northern stream to come in faster to accomplish this imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Earlier phasing would yield this as well. We would need the northern stream to come in faster to accomplish this imo. Yeah, When i said faster that was my thinking being sooner, These model runs that have been ticking west, Also seem to have a better western ridge as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, leo2000 said: You think it's going to track east? He thinks exactly the opposite. A west shift would bring snows further west, winds, etc. It is always extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Earlier phasing would yield this as well. We would need the northern stream to come in faster to accomplish this imo. For you in se mass or those further nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Earlier phasing would yield this as well. We would need the northern stream to come in faster to accomplish this imo. This is probably why CMC has such a hit for us. It has been consistently better than the GFS with this idea for several runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: He thinks exactly the opposite. A west shift would bring snows further west, winds, etc. It is always extreme. Not always. .he originally thought whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: For you in se mass or those further nw This is for folks further W. I feel pretty good where I stand right now with what I see across all guidance. And I know this can change abruptly so I'm still not overly confident in an outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: This is probably why CMC has such a hit for us. It has been consistently better than the GFS with this idea for several runs now. That was a snow blitz for you and I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not always. .he originally thought whiff. That’s true...meanwhile, you have been on this one like white on rice, I had pretty much given up on it early on, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: That was a snow blitz for you and I. This is pretty nuts as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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