TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: You're going to need more help. You should clean up... like most storms this year lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: Western weenies are going to need to start seeing some bigger movement. Having the CMC, RPM, and SREFs on your team is like trying to win the super bowl with the Browns. Yeah you need to start seeing some higher skill models come on board. If you are like CT valley and west down here and maybe close to your area and NW up there. Browns might be a bit harsh...once in a while the NAM/Rpm score the coup...prob more like the Bills running the table this year in the playoffs. I still think this southern stream is going to tuck in closer to the northern stream than the globals show. This might be a good storm for the non-hydrostatic models with that ridiculous amount of tropical convection. You still trust the globals at this time lead but if we get to around 36-48 hours out and we have a model war, I'm prob going to lean toward that Rgem/NAM camp if they are on the same team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: Harvey’s twitter suggest a strong chance of plowable or higher in eastern MA. Really going out on a limb there, haha. The chance of plowable (2-3"+) in eastern Mass is nearing 100%. Even if worse case scenario it takes you 12 hours to get 3"... you'll be plowing at worst case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, powderfreak said: Huh? The chance of plowable (2-3"+) in eastern Mass is nearing 100%. Even if worse case scenario it takes you 12 hours to get 3"... you'll be plowing at worst case. Yeah that means very little to me lol... they plowed the 1” on Christmas. The threshold for plowable used to be a couple inches now it seems like whenever it snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: You should clean up... like most storms this year lol I can't complain really this winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah you need to start seeing some higher skill models come on board. If you are like CT valley and west down here and maybe close to your area and NW up there. Browns might be a bit harsh...once in a while the NAM/Rpm score the coup...prob more like the Bills running the table this year in the playoffs. I still think this southern stream is going to tuck in closer to the northern stream than the globals show. This might be a good storm for the non-hydrostatic models with that ridiculous amount of tropical convection. You still trust the globals at this time lead but if we get to around 36-48 hours out and we have a model war, I'm prob going to lean toward that Rgem/NAM camp if they are on the same team. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I can't complain really this winter so far. This one should put both of us a good bit ahead of the annual average, me think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah that means very little to me lol... they plowed the 1” on Christmas. The threshold for plowable used to be a couple inches now it seems like whenever it snows Harvey and I grew up with the same storms. I’d say dollars to donuts he means 4+. We didn’t have the plows come for less back in the day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Oh this was over a long time ago, IMO. Most knew the western half of New England was a long shot for good advisory and warning snows...the Eastern sections are always weary of it, just like western sections are weary of the eastern tracks. But this has had eastern New England written on it for days. I've been on the BOS train with this storm for a while. Yea. I was trying to will this one west for days, I’m exhausted....but giving 0z runs one last chance to make it right for us, we “need and deserve it”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, WxBlue said: This one should put both of us a good bit ahead of the annual average, me think. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The real question is... will we finish up with 00z suite before the end of Clemson-Alabama football game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. I was trying to will this one west for days, I’m exhausted....but giving 0z runs one last chance to make it right for us, we “need and deserve it”. Your hard work is about to pay off!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Harvey and I grew up with the same storms. I’d say dollars to donuts he means 4+. We didn’t have the plows come for less back in the day.. Yeah even that I think the chances for 6"+ of wind-blown powder are pretty good in eastern Mass with the onshore flow into what has been a brutal air mass... speed convergence from friction as air comes ashore, coastal front development, large snow growth zone that may be able to tap into both some mid-level lift and low-level meso-scale features like ORH Hills orographics and coastal front. Should be good dendrites like Feb 2015 storms. Even 0.3-0.4" QPF and you guys are 6"+ easy which seems like a lock at this point. Only negative would be if the winds are so high they end up packing the dendrites tight, but with good snow growth giving solid structure, they can often survive the collisions in the fall. If I had the time, it would be worth a quick few hour drive down to BOS for the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah you need to start seeing some higher skill models come on board. If you are like CT valley and west down here and maybe close to your area and NW up there. Browns might be a bit harsh...once in a while the NAM/Rpm score the coup...prob more like the Bills running the table this year in the playoffs. I still think this southern stream is going to tuck in closer to the northern stream than the globals show. This might be a good storm for the non-hydrostatic models with that ridiculous amount of tropical convection. You still trust the globals at this time lead but if we get to around 36-48 hours out and we have a model war, I'm prob going to lean toward that Rgem/NAM camp if they are on the same team. It’s like those southern streamer SWFEs where the convection goes wild down south and the models never seem to catch up with the latent heating and downstream ridging right up to go time of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 14 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Oh this was over a long time ago, IMO. Most knew the western half of New England was a long shot for good advisory and warning snows...the Eastern sections are always weary of it, just like western sections are weary of the eastern tracks. But this has had eastern New England written on it for days. I've been on the BOS train with this storm for a while. I'm weary because I'm wary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Northern stream looks a little better so far to me on Nammy. Still early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. I was trying to will this one west for days, I’m exhausted....but giving 0z runs one last chance to make it right for us, we “need and deserve it”. Oh' no way bro' WNE cashes in all the time, we need to throw love to the CP folk! Seriously though I will concede this storm to E folks come 12z runs tomorrow but not sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Worse yet ... there's so much instability with all this cold transport heading out over the warm west Atlantic that (I suspect) the fast nature of the flow overtop is contributing to prematurely spinning up and then ejecting the low - i.e. Perhaps too much model sensitivity. Another problem is we don't have much downstream blocking here ... that really would help quite a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: Northern stream looks a little better so far to me on Nammy. Still early. Yes, Northern stream vort is stronger so far and digging further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Oh' no way bro' WNE cashes in all the time, we need to throw love to the CP folk! Seriously though I will concede this storm to E folks come 12z runs tomorrow but not sooner. You’re a better weenie than I am. Going to need a miracle inside 72hrs. The hand of God has to come riding down the polar jet and horse collar tackle it just before our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I think the biggest aspect is the trof axis is slightly further west this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: I think the biggest aspect is the trof axis is slightly further west this run. Agree....and seems neutral tilt sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I think the biggest aspect is the trof axis is slightly further west this run. And this is what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 every run gets further west, digs deeper and then poof! out to sea. But I feel this storm will come further west and I expect to wake up at 3am for my pee/weather check to see good news on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: I think the biggest aspect is the trof axis is slightly further west this run. This run of what? edit...never mind. Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: I think the biggest aspect is the trof axis is slightly further west this run. 'Been looking for a taller ridge out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Seems like its trying to go negative around hr 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: every run gets further west, digs deeper and then poof! out to sea. But I feel this storm will come further west and I expect to wake up at 3am for my pee/weather check to see good news on here. This is an exercise in how much better can it get and yet not get any better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: every run gets further west, digs deeper and then poof! out to sea. But I feel this storm will come further west and I expect to wake up at 3am for my pee/weather check to see good news on here. Yeah, defintely some tics W past 24hrs. I wouldn't trust the "poof, out to sea" depictions. I think we see this thing wind up down S, come in a bit slower and get advisory snows back towards NY/MA border. I don't think WNE cashes on anything big but a general 2-4" for those W of the CT River in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, WintersComing said: Seems like its trying to go negative around hr 45 Not quite but yeah, that's the trend we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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