Stormlover74 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Up to 53 currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 54 here in Sheepshead Bay about a half mile away from the immediate shoreline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Another easy guidance beat with LGA up to 56 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: Another easy guidance beat with LGA up to 56 now. MOS temperatures crushed today - torching. Sitting at 59F here in CNJ and still rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 56 here. I was pretty confident we'd beat those 50 - 52 ish forecasts. Clouding up now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 35 minutes ago, Isotherm said: MOS temperatures crushed today - torching. Sitting at 59F here in CNJ and still rising. The 55 at Newark puts it in 3rd place for the most 55 or warmer days on record for January at 6 now. #1.....8 days.....2007...2006....1950...1932 #2....7 days.....1990...1951...1947 #3....6 days......2018...1998...1973...1972...1949...1933 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 32 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 55 at Newark puts it in 3rd place for the most 55 or warmer days on record for January at 6 now. #1.....8 days.....2007...2006....1950...1932 #2....7 days.....1990...1951...1947 #3....6 days......2018...1998...1973...1972...1949...1933 This is getting too easy, I don't think the models realize we are in a warmer climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 I'll have to wait to see what the recorded max is for the afternoon, but looking at hourly observations this afternoon at KFRG (Republic Airport), those topped out at 49. Precursor to frustrating April/May days when central NJ away from the coast hits mid-high 60s while LI stays stuck in the 40s. It's the worst trivial feature of south shore LI climate IMO (worst nontrivial feature being hurricane exposure of course.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 9 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: I'll have to wait to see what the recorded max is for the afternoon, but looking at hourly observations this afternoon at KFRG (Republic Airport), those topped out at 49. Precursor to frustrating April/May days when central NJ away from the coast hits mid-high 60s while LI stays stuck in the 40s. It's the worst trivial feature of south shore LI climate IMO (worst nontrivial feature being hurricane exposure of course.) I would have to disagree and say hurricane exposure is great. (For a weather lover). Today was a gorgeous day on the mountain in Vermont. Great snow and sunny and 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Eating away at the departure, but still -2.5° here after today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 17 minutes ago, doncat said: Eating away at the departure, but still -2.5° here after today. 1 more AN day and it's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Temps stayed in the low to mid 40's here, I saw as high as 47 on the dashboard in Danbury this afternoon. The ground in the woods is still mostly frozen under the leafy insulation but soft where it's exposed. IOW it's ready for the next snow and shouldn't have to go through the whole refreeze thing before it stick and can start to build if we get a few storms in succession in a short period of time. We also haven't lost much of the lake ice either, it gets wet during the day but refreezes at night and there's very little, if any, open water even on the biggest lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 16 for a low here now sitting at 47 which is also the high for the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: Temps stayed in the low to mid 40's here, I saw as high as 47 on the dashboard in Danbury this afternoon. The ground in the woods is still mostly frozen under the leafy insulation but soft where it's exposed. IOW it's ready for the next snow and shouldn't have to go through the whole refreeze thing before it stick and can start to build if we get a few storms in succession in a short period of time. We also haven't lost much of the lake ice either, it gets wet during the day but refreezes at night and there's very little, if any, open water even on the biggest lakes. Plenty of ice fishing, hockey playing, and general meandering taking place on White Pond yesterday afternoon. I walked across it lengthwise a couple times doing some photography, definitely no open water. It seemed like Candlewood was pretty well locked in today but I didn't get a chance to stop and take a closer look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 19 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Plenty of ice fishing, hockey playing, and general meandering taking place on White Pond yesterday afternoon. I walked across it lengthwise a couple times doing some photography, definitely no open water. It seemed like Candlewood was pretty well locked in today but I didn't get a chance to stop and take a closer look. White Pond in Kent/Carmel? I'm going to put some studded tires on a couple of my bikes and get out and do some lake rides soon, probably after the next cold period gets rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 hour ago, snywx said: 16 for a low here now sitting at 47 which is also the high for the day Heheh I didn't even look after I got home but it's up to 50 here. Well shoot, I was hoping the 47 this afternoon was the highest it was going to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 19 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Heheh I didn't even look after I got home but it's up to 50 here. Well shoot, I was hoping the 47 this afternoon was the highest it was going to get. 47.5 here. The bright side is at least there's no snow on the ground I have to watch disappear. The dark side, there's no snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: White Pond in Kent/Carmel? I'm going to put some studded tires on a couple of my bikes and get out and do some lake rides soon, probably after the next cold period gets rolling. Yup, that's the one. I love it there, it's like a secluded recreation hub in all seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Remainder of month averaging 38degs., or 5degs. AN. Month to date is -1.4. Should end Jan. @ -0.58. The whole 8 days is averaging 37degs., or 4degs. AN. Bye Bye Snows? Basically only EURO has any snow now for the dates we were watching, 1/30 & 2/02,3. 2" in Feb. SREF does have 4" on 1/30, but it has initialized with a temperature that is 7 degrees too low right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Another mild day lies ahead today. However, cooler air will be pushing into the region in the wake of the cold front that is now pushing across the area this morning with light rain. Even as the air mass is not Arctic in origin, it could be sufficiently cold to allow for a period of light snow or flurries across the region Monday night into Tuesday. A possible larger snowfall could occur on Friday according to some of the guidance. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 1/27: 30.9° (1.4° below normal) 1/31: 31.4°-32.0° (1/27 estimate: 31.3°-32.1°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 79% (1/27 estimate: 74%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: Remainder of month averaging 38degs., or 5degs. AN. Month to date is -1.4. Should end Jan. @ -0.58. The whole 8 days is averaging 37degs., or 4degs. AN. Bye Bye Snows? Basically only EURO has any snow now for the dates we were watching, 1/30 & 2/02,3. 2" in Feb. SREF does have 4" on 1/30, but it has initialized with a temperature that is 7 degrees too low right now! Bye bye snow ? What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: Remainder of month averaging 38degs., or 5degs. AN. Month to date is -1.4. Should end Jan. @ -0.58. The whole 8 days is averaging 37degs., or 4degs. AN. Bye Bye Snows? Basically only EURO has any snow now for the dates we were watching, 1/30 & 2/02,3. 2" in Feb. SREF does have 4" on 1/30, but it has initialized with a temperature that is 7 degrees too low right now! The operational ECMWF only goes out to 2/7 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 56 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The operational ECMWF only goes out to 2/7 0z. The 2" was only for the dates in question, not the whole month of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, CIK62 said: The 2" was only for the dates in question, not the whole month of course. Thanks for the clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Today was the 8th day that NYC reached 50 degrees or higher this January. It was the most days since 2012. 2010's January 50 degree or greater days in NYC: 2018...8 2017...6 2016...4 2015...1 2014...5 2013...6 2012...11 2011...2 2010...4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Another mild day lies ahead today. However, cooler air will be pushing into the region in the wake of the cold front that is now pushing across the area this morning with light rain. Even as the air mass is not Arctic in origin, it could be sufficiently cold to allow for a period of light snow or flurries across the region Monday night into Tuesday. A possible larger snowfall could occur on Friday according to some of the guidance. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 1/27: 30.9° (1.4° below normal) 1/31: 31.4°-32.0° (1/27 estimate: 31.3°-32.1°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 79% (1/27 estimate: 74%) 28.6 avg January temp here. Normal is 29.2, so at -0.6. Will be close to normal by months end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 4 hours ago, CIK62 said: Remainder of month averaging 38degs., or 5degs. AN. Month to date is -1.4. Should end Jan. @ -0.58. The whole 8 days is averaging 37degs., or 4degs. AN. Bye Bye Snows? Basically only EURO has any snow now for the dates we were watching, 1/30 & 2/02,3. 2" in Feb. SREF does have 4" on 1/30, but it has initialized with a temperature that is 7 degrees too low right now! I am not sure what is more impressive. The fact that the first 10 days were so cold it wiped out the warm departures in the final 20 days, or that the final 20 days were so warm it wiped out the first 10 day cold departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Today was the 8th day that NYC reached 50 degrees or higher this January. It was the most days since 2012. 2010's January 50 degree or greater days in NYC: 2018...8 2017...6 2016...4 2015...1 2014...5 2013...6 2012...11 2011...2 2010...4 Wow, that’s pretty amazing considering the other years that we’re considered/were a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Today was the 8th day that NYC reached 50 degrees or higher this January. It was the most days since 2012. 2010's January 50 degree or greater days in NYC: 2018...8 2017...6 2016...4 2015...1 2014...5 2013...6 2012...11 2011...2 2010...4 Any idea what the avg is? (30 yr avgs etc..) I'd guess maybe around 3 - 5? I wonder if there are many Jan that have none. Its hard to imagine one in my lifetime while old enough to remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 31 minutes ago, psv88 said: 28.6 avg January temp here. Normal is 29.2, so at -0.6. Will be close to normal by months end. Pretty sure this qualifies as a torch. 59.1F was my high yesterday and 57F high at 1am today. Now down to -0.8 here. Today will be warmer than normal as will tomorrow. Going to be close to normal as expected for much of the area. January 10th-31st was predominately warmer than normal, such that it almost entirely countervailed the early month cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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