dWave Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The North Shore had a light NE breeze off the Sound today keeping those areas cooler. JFK made it to 52 while LGA only 45. I got into the low 50's here near the GSB with a period of sunshine . I only got to 45 too. Spent alot of time around 38 - 40. Breezy E to ENE wind today off the Sound kept it cooler on super local level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 2 hours ago, bluewave said: From the EPS forecast teleconnections, looks like NYC could see another round of highs under 32 and lows below 10 degrees near the peak of the February cold. This would be the first time for our area that we had such impressive cold before Jan 10th and after Feb 5th with such a warm and extended thaw in between. Since 1950, only 3 La Niña events featured low temperatures below 10° in NYC in both January and February: 1970-71, 1971-72, and 1995-96. None had low temperatures below 10° in December, January, and February. So, if such severe cold unfolds, it would constitute yet another extreme in a period that has seen numerous extremes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Since 1950, only 3 La Niña events featured low temperatures below 10° in NYC in both January and February: 1970-71, 1971-72, and 1995-96. None had low temperatures below 10° in December, January, and February. So, if such severe cold unfolds, it would constitute yet another extreme in a period that has seen numerous extremes. But only 1995-96 had appreciable snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 18 minutes ago, sferic said: But only 1995-96 had appreciable snows. Correct. But just like 1995-96, and unlike 1970-71 and 1971-72, the PDO is positive during the current La Niña event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 The emerging consensus regarding our chances for some deep winter in February is as impressive as it is exciting. I don't recall a time where there has been so much agreement on an upcoming wintry pattern. I've actually been appreciating our muted thaw. Looking forward to some all-night model watching in the weeks ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 38 and rain. Lovely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 39degs., or 7degs. AN. Month to date is -3.1degs. Should be just -0.40degs., by the last day of month. Assuming last day of the month is normal, we will finish at -0.38degs. If it is a blowout +12degs., we will end at NORMAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Two years ago, New York City was in the grips of a record-breaking snowstorm that would dump 27.5” snow on the City when the last flakes stopped falling. Today’s meteorological drama concerns the possibility of thunderstorms in the midst of a highly unstable air mass. Nevertheless, despite the early springlike conditions, a return to winter lurks in the extended range. The latest GEFS forecast showed that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) could go strongly negative during the first week in February. At the same time, the PNA, which has been negative for six consecutive days and just 17% of days during meteorological winter should go positive. Such a combination favors the development of a cold and snowy pattern. During the February 1-15, 1981-2010 base period, there were 128 days during which the AO was at -1.000 or below and the PNA was positive. The mean temperature during those days was 31.9° (climatology: 34.0°). During such patterns, the percentage of days with maximum temperatures below 32° was approximately 30% higher than climatology and the percentage of days with minimum temperatures below 20° was nearly 45% above climatology. In addition, the frequency of days with measurable snowfall was just over 40% above climatology. The percentage of days with 1” or more snowfall was nearly 50% above climatology and roughly similar to the percentage of days with measurable snowfall under climatology. The percentage of days with 4” or more snowfall was nearly 90% above climatology and roughly equal to the percentage of days with 2” or more snowfall under climatology. In short, the forecast teleconnections and forecast evolution of the 500 mb pattern continues to favor the shift toward a return to winter with the transition occurring during the first week in February. New York City’s Average Temperature Through: 1/22: 29.3° (3.1° below normal) 1/25: 30.2°-30.7° (1/22 estimate: 30.6°-31.3°) 1/31: 31.2°-32.7° (1/22 estimate: 31.5°-33.3°) Per aggressive sensitivity analysis, the estimated probability of a below normal monthly anomaly: 57% (1/22 estimate: 52%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 8 hours ago, sferic said: But only 1995-96 had appreciable snows. 1972 was snowy in February... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said: 38 and rain. Lovely. Some very heavy downpours here this morning. Local stations all over a half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Since 1950, only 3 La Niña events featured low temperatures below 10° in NYC in both January and February: 1970-71, 1971-72, and 1995-96. None had low temperatures below 10° in December, January, and February. So, if such severe cold unfolds, it would constitute yet another extreme in a period that has seen numerous extremes. The other interesting stat this January is the very impressive thaw following such a cold first week of the month. This will be the warmest January average temperature on record for NYC following a 1/1-1/7 below 20 degrees. Coldest first weeks of January on record for NYC below 20 degrees and the monthly average temperature: 14.6....1918....21.7....coldest January on record 16.4....2018....29.3 and rising 16.9....1904....25.3 18.7....1879....26.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Worst NYC winter I believe was 1972-73 when NYC had 2.3 inches in total while Jacksonville Florida reported more snow that that. What type of scenario caused that winter ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 0.53" on the event so far. Looks like the heaviest rains on the second batch are going more towards NE PA and that part of NY. Very foggy here at the moment. 12z HRRR indicates cold frontal passage around here between 1 and 2PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 3 hours ago, CIK62 said: Next 8 days averaging 39degs., or 7degs. AN. Month to date is -3.1degs. Should be just -0.40degs., by the last day of month. Assuming last day of the month is normal, we will finish at -0.38degs. If it is a blowout +12degs., we will end at NORMAL. These numbers are for Central Park, correct? The 31st should have high temperatures in the 50s, so I think departures will be very close to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 minute ago, Isotherm said: These numbers are for Central Park, correct? The 31st should have high temperatures in the 50s, so I think departures will be very close to normal. Yes, this is for Central Park. Just allowing for both outcomes---but first the next 8 must come in as indicated to set up the photo finish. It is hard to think of this month as a BN month anyway, with the last 21 days coming in at +4/+5 degrees. Suppose you should get confused and think the first days of Jan were actually all part of late Dec. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 21 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Yes, this is for Central Park. Just allowing for both outcomes---but first the next 8 must come in as indicated to set up the photo finish. It is hard to think of this month as a BN month anyway, with the last 21 days coming in at +4/+5 degrees. Suppose you should get confused and think the first days of Jan were actually all part of late Dec. lol The 1st 19 days of the month were between -6 to -7 around the area. Roughly 2/3rds of the month were cold. Closer in , the last period , after a midnight high from 6z the 13th thru the 19th we were BN. Of the 1st 19 days 14 days of those days were BN. We were not just cold the first few days of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Here are some food for thought statistics regarding the temperature trend since January 9th. Since January 9th, NYC has had 9 above normal days, and 5 below normal days. The positive departure days totaled +93, while the negative departure days totaled -32. By the 31st of the month, we will likely have 14 above normal days and 6 below normal days for the January 9th-31st period. So, at the end of the day, while the cold air for the first 10 days of January was stronger than anticipated, I think there's a robust argument to be made that the pattern generally became more favorable for warm than cold beginning January 9th. Going forward for February, my thoughts remain fairly harmonious with what I've opined to date. This morning's ECMWF ensemble run still indicates a significantly slowed progression of the MJO through phase 7. Even if we manage to force a FROPA through around the 2nd-3rd, I think those higher geopotential height anomalies are going to resist quite strongly or possibly even retrograde a bit westward in the first week of the month. The upper divergence signal will not be conducive to sink the core of the colder air into the East Coast until beyond the first week in my opinion. In addition, in light of the upstream mid level ridge axis oriented west of ideal, in concert w/ a positive NAO, we will need to hope for weaker waves to get snowfall at first. Any wound-up, intensifying cyclone will indubitably track west of ideal for us. But there will be time to discuss this going forward. Stratospherically, wave-2 amplification does not want to cooperate this winter. The precursor pattern has been weakening for it, so after the potent w-1 hit over the next 7-8 days, the vortex will probably strengthen again in February. Its initial elongation will aid in downwelling higher heights into the EPO domain, but beyond that, we will become more reliant on angular momentum and MJO related forcing alterations, if wave-2 doesn't improve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Summer time downpour type rates right now in Wantagh. PWATs must be super high by January standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Summer time downpour type rates right now in Wantagh. PWATs must be super high by January standards. This was just one of the heaviest downpours here since last summer in the last 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 A summertime downpour? What’s that? But seriously, it’s really pouring. And it *feels* like we’ve been getting a couple of these warm rain events each winter, some coupled with thunder/lightning, which has been largely absent in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Another record high for ISP today at 56 degrees. This was the 3rd record high this month following 2 record lows. 1/23...RH...56 1/20...RH...56 1/13...RH...58 1/7....RL....2 1/4....RSN....16" 1/1....RL......1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 4 hours ago, JerseyWx said: Some very heavy downpours here this morning. Local stations all over a half inch. 287 N/S in East Hanover was flooded due to the rain and poor drainage. Traffic was fun... Local creeks were running high; the back part of my property had a nice stream running through it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Thin squall line incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Rapid clearing now with temps near 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 sun out now after that squall line. 55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said: 287 N/S in East Hanover was flooded due to the rain and poor drainage. Traffic was fun... Local creeks were running high; the back part of my property had a nice stream running through it. Yeah, the typical areas with poor drainage were noticeably impacted today. This can be blamed on .75" or more (depending on location) of rain that fell in a reasonably short period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 This will end up being a very strong and persistent thaw, nearly equalling the very cold 2 week period. I guess that's one way to get a near normal month. We could see the exact scenario play out in February with the first half averaging well above normal with a very cold second half to produce another near normal month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 3 weeks of warmth erasing a cold snap and we're looking towards second week of February. Second week of February is nice, but normal highs start to increase, days start getting noticeably longer, March comes up quick. February usually produces some nice snows (sometimes March does too), but the end is in sight. Everyone loves to mention 2015...but that was the extreme of extremes. Heck, last March gave us our only real snow followed by prolonged cold event. Long story short, those are blips as the season pulls away from you. Winter is far from over, but this is the heart of it now. 55 in the heart really hurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 30 minutes ago, bluewave said: Rapid clearing now with temps near 60. Newark with a record high tied of 62F thus far. Central Park should hit 60F at least I think; another warm bust versus MOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 ISP hit 58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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