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Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Just having fun.... the bowling ball on the euro tracks all the way to the OH valley but SLP is detached and way down south along the gulf coast. It's a convoluted setup and extremely unlikely to happen but say it did.... this would be a moderate event at least:

ecmwf_z500a_us_11.png

 

The better way would to actually have the HP to the NE not win as much and have the whole thing approach from the south. Would be a mixed event but the front side would be juiced. Just spitballing and having fun with another fantasy storm. 

 

ETA: changed my mind....I'd be perfectly good with the way the euro progresses. Would be a warning level event with limited mixing with OK upper level support even if the storm isn't consolidated. I think we probably hit rock bottom the last 2 days. Time to collectively will any and every chance we can get to NOT waste some very impressive Dec/early Jan cold. 

 

ecmwf_ptype_conus_240.png

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Buddy1987

Buddy1987

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ji said:

today has been a good day. Yesterday was probably rock bottom for me in a long time

I agree Ji. Yesterday was rough. Basically these last like 3-4 days. At least we have some type of hope, even if the GFS is way off its rocker. There are some models that give some validity to what the GFS is showing. The CMC ensembles weren't terrible. The JMA is the JMA so we wont go there. Hopefully the trends continue.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
Just now, supernovasky said:

Ok, I'm GLADLY taking the Euro's 3-4", sub 100 hours, and running with it. Amazing how this event comes back with such a short lead time. Very uncomplicated setup.

It's actually pretty normal when we jump in under d5. Because we're weenies we look as far out as the eye can see 100% of the time unless something is imminent. I'd say at least 75% of our events don't look like much of anything at all until under 5 days and nearly 100% of our D7+ events never materialize. At least not the same way they were presented anyways. 

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gymengineer

gymengineer

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The possible event isn't a clipper. It's a long track Pac shortwave forced underneath in zonal flow (uncommon). The most important difference with a long track pac sw versus a clipper is that is already has a good bit of moisture with it in comparison to a clipper. That doesn't mean big QPF. Just better chances at .25 or so than something diving down out of the middle of Canada. 

The extreme version for our area was 3/9/99 although that took a Southern CA coast then flat across the center of the country path. But narrow snow stripe as of now still means we’re all hanging on and still waiting for 48-hrs for some semblance of the final solution.

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gymengineer

gymengineer

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Ok, I'm GLADLY taking the Euro's 3-4", sub 100 hours, and running with it. Amazing how this event comes back with such a short lead time. Very uncomplicated setup.

I personally think short lead time for winter events means within 48-hrs because that is often when events models lose in the medium range make a comeback for good. Or when a Euro-blessed snow for us at 72-hrs heads towards NE a la 2015.

Your location got more than 20” on 12/18-19/09. Snow started Friday night around 8 pm. The Winter Storm Watch for >5” potential wasn’t issued until Thursday afternoon. Granted, modeling has improved since then, but we saw the 12/9 event this winter come back in the short lead time of within 48 hours.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

The extreme version for our area was 3/9/99 although that took a Southern CA coast then flat across the center of the country path. But narrow snow stripe as of now still means we’re all hanging on and still waiting for 48-hrs for some semblance of the final solution.

Yea, a 150 mile wide stripe of precip and little margin for error is a big flag for sure. Not to mention that just 12 hours ago the euro/ukie were further north. It would be crazy to not expect many shifts in the coming days with one of the potential shifts being no event exists at all for anyone. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Just having fun.... the bowling ball on the euro tracks all the way to the OH valley but SLP is detached and way down south along the gulf coast. It's a convoluted setup and extremely unlikely to happen but say it did.... this would be a moderate event at least:

ecmwf_z500a_us_11.png

 

The better way would to actually have the HP to the NE not win as much and have the whole thing approach from the south. Would be a mixed event but the front side would be juiced. Just spitballing and having fun with another fantasy storm. 

 

ETA: changed my mind....I'd be perfectly good with the way the euro progresses. Would be a warning level event with limited mixing with OK upper level support even if the storm isn't consolidated. I think we probably hit rock bottom the last 2 days. Time to collectively will any and every chance we can get to NOT waste some very impressive Dec/early Jan cold. 

 

 

Yeah i feel that now that the cold is here, it will be a little more believable when we see any appreciable events.  One less vaviable to consider

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Chris78

Chris78

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Right or wrong, the GFS/GEFS is really seeing the event that no other model is showing. Very unusual to see such strong support (begins before this panel) for an event that literally no other model (except the JMA) supports

f144.gif

I menioned earlier today that the GFS has shown this in some fashion starting with the 18z run yesterday. Its hard to take it seriously when it's on an island by itself though.

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Chris78

Chris78

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah i feel that now that the cold is here, it will be a little more believable when we see any appreciable events.  One less vaviable to consider

I have to believe we see something over the next 2 weeks. We would need some very bad luck to strike out. Maybe in a week once the cold begins to relax we have potential for a moderate event.

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Interstate

Interstate

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's actually pretty normal when we jump in under d5. Because we're weenies we look as far out as the eye can see 100% of the time unless something is imminent. I'd say at least 75% of our events don't look like much of anything at all until under 5 days and nearly 100% of our D7+ events never materialize. At least not the same way they were presented anyways. 

This is why an 3 day range should be the max available to the public.  Would save us a lot of time and TUMS.

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

I have to believe we see something over the next 2 weeks. We would need some very bad luck to strike out. Maybe in a week once the cold begins to relax we have potential for a moderate event.

Agreed.  doesnt scream shut out to me...

i think the inner weenie in all of us want to lay down some fluff prior to any relaxation though....

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Buddy1987

Buddy1987

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS not as supportive for the d4-5 deal as I'd hoped. It upped QPF to the NE and trimmed a bit here. Zero support for what the GFS/GEFS is trying to do next week. 

Bob would the Euro rule superior even in these types of N/S interactions and setups over the GFS or any model per say? I know it struggles a lot with holding back energy in the southwest but is there anything else that could help us here in this instance that it may not be picking up?

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Chris78

Chris78

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS not as supportive for the d4-5 deal as I'd hoped. It upped QPF to the NE and trimmed a bit here. Zero support for what the GFS/GEFS is trying to do next week. 

The issue of the GEFS being yes men is probably in play here. I'm sure if the op drops the idea at 18z the GEFS will follow. Im hoping the GFS/GEFS scores a coup here  but I'm not holding my breath...lol

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS not as supportive for the d4-5 deal as I'd hoped. It upped QPF to the NE and trimmed a bit here. Zero support for what the GFS/GEFS is trying to do next week. 

Booo , can not the keep the good vibes more than a few hours. 

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SnowGolfBro

SnowGolfBro

Posted
Posted

The Euro is always strong, but I for one am gearing up for the happy hour GFS.  If the GFS is going out to lunch, it mine as well serve us up some Steak and Lobster with an open bar and the office closed for a long snowy weekend.  My feeling is we will come back toward a more positive solution.  The models were picking up on some storminess a few days ago.  We won't get back to those solutions, but lets keep hope alive through tomorrows potential snow showers.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Bob would the Euro rule superior even in these types of N/S interactions and setups over the GFS or any model per say? I know it struggles a lot with holding back energy in the southwest but is there anything else that could help us here in this instance that it may not be picking up?

Considering how small the weekend event is, it would take laser precision agreement for the ensembles to look like today's op run and that's not possible at 4+ day leads. The GFS/GEFS does score sometimes but day in day out, the euro/eps is the best performing model suite out there so it's much easier to discount the GFS/GEFS versus the other way around. 

The EPS has the northern stream wave but there's a lot of spread in both how much precip it drops and where it tracks. Once we get inside of 3 days we can pretty much just hug operational runs and not worry about the ensemble suites. With fast moving small/light events the ensembles don't add as much to the discussion as operational runs do. Especially at shorter leads. I would expect at least some agreement with ops starting tomorrow @ 12z. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Big event considering the year!

ecmwf_t_precip_ma_102.png

Regardless of what the models show we know if it digs enough and is as energetic as progged then somewhere that gets into "the band" will get 3-5" with that. Right now we're in the game. I agree this is a better bet then rooting on complicated interactions with the southern stream. 

I don't mind seeing a steady stream of systems crossing after that. None stand out as a serious threat now but that can change inside 5 days. 

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