MJO812 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 CMC has a potent northern stream wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Ukmet develops out to sea and passes east of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Give it til Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Looks like someone broke the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like someone broke the euro. Ensembles came out before the op. Looked a little west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Give it til Thursday. Exactly what I have been saying. Wait till full sampling before making any final calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 I'm spending 9-10 days on the west coast starting on January 7th. I really hope we can score some good snow between now and my departure--i hate to be away for that long during peak snow season. Me, ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Euro is weaker with Saturday Euro now has a coastal around Jan 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Couple promising runs / couple with just light stuff.. 00z tonight makes or breaks a 4-8 deal vs 1-3 which may be the more likely of the two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Couple promising runs / couple with just light stuff.. 00z tonight makes or breaks a 4-8 deal vs 1-3 which may be the more likely of the two Dude--you left out the 0-0 option which is very much on the table which is the more likely of the three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 24 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Ensembles came out before the op. Looked a little west I’ll take both of those. Better than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 10 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Dude--you left out the 0-0 option which is very much on the table which is the more likely of the three. Actually no. Not at all..Well maybe for your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Not sure how people are already racheting down expectations with that H5 look on the 0z EPS at hr 96...Best run so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 11 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Not sure how people are already racheting down expectations with that H5 look on the 0z EPS at hr 96...Best run so far... I guess because none of the models are showing a hit anymore and we’re getting closer, not further away from the non-event? Haha. I’m no expert, just an observer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 minute ago, JBinStoughton said: I guess because none of the models are showing a hit anymore and we’re getting closer, not further away from the non-event? Haha. I’m no expert, just an observer. The euro was pretty nice across a decent part of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 EPS mean deff stopped the negative trend and has slowed a bit while being closer to the coast. Even with the OP looking weak. Of course it then wants to reward us with another d9/d10 blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 7 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said: I guess because none of the models are showing a hit anymore and we’re getting closer, not further away from the non-event? Haha. I’m no expert, just an observer. Euro with highest verification scores and EPS trending favorably. Need to weigh guidance/trends accordingly... 90 hr is also an eternity for a potential Miller B outcome. We won’t have the final solution inside 24 hr...Of course at that point it’ll be close but the point is, much more uncertainty with an event like this despite being inside 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Euro with highest verification scores and EPS trending favorably. Need to weigh guidance/trends accordingly... It would be festive if we can get any snows on nye/nyd to back up Christmas. I dont recall that happening in my lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 00z solution was a little different than what I would think as I look at H5. I thought the s/w in question did not dig as deep as 12z, but it was able to have a good outcome in the SE half of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: Euro with highest verification scores and EPS trending favorably. Need to weigh guidance/trends accordingly... 90 hr is also an eternity for a potential Miller B outcome. We won’t have the final solution inside 24 hr...Of course at that point it’ll be close but the point is, much more uncertainty with an event like this despite being inside 4 days. Nice I might want to plan to stay in Dover for this one, closer to the coast. Models typically struggle in this scenario anyhow and they are truly at odds. WPC, like you, leaning on the Euro. And climo is good up here for Miller Bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 I thought the 06z GEFS were starting to get a clue. Just starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: Not sure how people are already racheting down expectations with that H5 look on the 0z EPS at hr 96...Best run so far... Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 22 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I thought the 06z GEFS were starting to get a clue. Just starting. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 This kind of an air mass reminds me of those in the past before an epic blizzard, that dry bone chilling cold, I measured with my hand held weather instrument that measures, wind direction, speed, temperature and wind chill. It recorded a temp of 16.9F this morning as the sun was rising, I took a quick walk. Try to get the brain flowing for writing. It reminds me of the air mass before the Jan 05 blizzard and the day before the Jan 2015 blizzard, although that storm didn't have quite the arctic air mass that 05 did. Plus I looked at all of the 2015 blizzard threads this week from the discussion model threads to the actual observations thread for good karma. So here is to another epic blizzard in Southern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Big move west on EPS. It’s gonna snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Scoots Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Started a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 I’m selling for my hood (maybe some light accumulation) S CT, S RI, SE MA might get a moderate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 My hunch is to toss the GFS on this one. Agree with earlier comments that it might be starting to get a clue. Euro has been fairly consistent with this storm where GFS has it....doesn’t have it etc etc . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Looks very inverted trough like, kinda hate seeing that and relying on such a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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