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Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Well I would not sell this one short just yet.  Sure it can trend to boring but the Euro is a s/w fart away from a large snowstorm for a lot of us.  Right now its showing 6-12"+ for the southern 1/2 of SNE.

That is my point...I'm not giving up, one of the reasons being the spread. I have also liked thus tine frame for months.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

12z GGEM is much closer to the 00z Euro this than it is to the 12z GFS. The GGEM/Euro concentrate on the lakes shortwave digging. The GFS flattens them out and then uses the one in the PAC NW to try and dig a Miller A storm a couple days later.

I'm going with the former rather than the latter being correct.  And that has nothing to do with sensible outcomes.  GFS loves the southern stream.

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klw

klw

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m banging the Swiss. Nailed temps. While the stupid azz GFS had LWM at 32, it showed a pool of 20s sagging southeast. It was the only model bringing me off the ledge.

No concerns about holes in the Swiss coverage.

BbgL7x3.gif

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z GGEM is much closer to the 00z Euro this than it is to the 12z GFS. The GGEM/Euro concentrate on the lakes shortwave digging. The GFS flattens them out and then uses the one in the PAC NW to try and dig a Miller A storm a couple days later.

Sell the GFS.

Buy EURO/GEM.

Doesn't have to mean we get crushed,  but n stream makes more sense.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

I'm going with the former rather than the latter being correct.  And that has nothing to do with sensible outcomes.  GFS loves the southern stream.

12z Ukie is also closer to the Euro idea.

The fact that the GFS is less skillful than the European duo and it's also kind of an outlier anyway would lead me to toss it too. The pattern is also pretty meridional with that folded over EPO block getting pushed into western Canada...that would tend to help amplify the lakes shortwave.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z Ukie is also closer to the Euro idea.

The fact that the GFS is less skillful than the European duo and it's also kind of an outlier anyway would lead me to toss it too. The pattern is also pretty meridional with that folded over EPO block getting pushed into western Canada...that would tend to help amplify the lakes shortwave.

The initial ocean low that the gfs develops into a blizzard for me also plays a role in flatting the flow in its wake and now allowing anything to go for NYE.   But yeah thats an outlier unfortunately lol.  

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Anecdotally it does seem like when it gets this cold up north for a sustained period of time like this, you guys to the southeast get a big powder bomb.

Some serious baroclinic zone near the ocean/Arctic air interface.

This is the cold where you get runs like 12z GGEM that has a nice Ginxy pow storm while the 10-day QPF in Maine is 0.02-0.05".

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z GGEM is much closer to the 00z Euro this than it is to the 12z GFS. The GGEM/Euro concentrate on the lakes shortwave digging. The GFS flattens them out and then uses the one in the PAC NW to try and dig a Miller A storm a couple days later.

All the difference is at 5 H, GFS at 06z had a meridional look to a Closed 5H feature , this run had  5h open with a strong southwest to east northeast look.

gfs_z500_vort_us_26.png

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z Ukie is also closer to the Euro idea.

The fact that the GFS is less skillful than the European duo and it's also kind of an outlier anyway would lead me to toss it too. The pattern is also pretty meridional with that folded over EPO block getting pushed into western Canada...that would tend to help amplify the lakes shortwave.

Ukie is a nuke.  Goes from 1006mb at 96hr to 955mb 24hr later N of NS.

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Anecdotally it does seem like when it gets this cold up north for a sustained period of time like this, you guys to the southeast get a big powder bomb.

Yea, just sometimes its the NYC metro/Norther Mid Atlantic/Cape Scrape "southeast".

Not saying that's the case here--+NAO and persistence argues against that case...

Given the current guidance though, I'd say this is either a bomb for the eastern third of the forum  or a complete wiff--nothing in between. If the N Stream hooks up with the southern stream its bombogenesis. If not this is way ots....

I'm also favoring the uk/euro/GEM and strongly discounting the GFS at this point for obvious reasons...

The northern Stream has been quite active this year, already producing several robust shortwaves this season - no reason for it to stop now... 

I think the antecedent deep cold in place will help to place that baroclinic zone in a more favorable position (closer to the BM) relative to our previous two events...Long story short, I think the coast cashes in nicely on this one...

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

All the difference is at 5 H, GFS at 06z had a meridional look to a Closed 5H feature , this run had  5h open with a strong southwest to east northeast look.

 

The 06z run of the GFS was still using a totally different shortwave (energy from the PAC NW teaming up with a second shortwave from Canada) though to get the storm...note how it is two days later than the Euro.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The 06z run of the GFS was still using a totally different shortwave (energy from the PAC NW teaming up with a second shortwave from Canada) though to get the storm...note how it is two days later than the Euro.

Doesn't matter what SW it picks up at 12Z with that flat look and a 250 jet completely different from 6 z, tossed

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

The initial ocean low that the gfs develops into a blizzard for me also plays a role in flatting the flow in its wake and now allowing anything to go for NYE.   But yeah thats an outlier unfortunately lol.  

Yea I really think this is the cause for the discrepancy between the GFS and other guidance. Destructive wave interference. GFS wants to amplify a weak clipper near NS around hr 84, which disrupts the development (downstream UL height rises) of the intense shortwave coming in behind it. It seems to me the GFS is the only model that wants to amplify the lead shorwave into something meaningful...And if we eliminate that lead shortwave or see it fizzle rather than blow-up east of NS then the GFS probably looks A LOT like the euro/gem/Ukie.

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