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Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide


weathafella

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32 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

EPO reloading at 240 with a strong SW diving down the Pac NW yum

ecmwf_z500aNorm_nhem_11.png

That to me says we are in it to win it at this point.  It won't be going anywhere near 32F here for a very long time.  Heck it may not go near 20F for a long time haha.

Breaking out the flannel lined Carhartts and this is when you start wearing UnderArmor base layers just to get groceries.  

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

To me, cold and dry is a nut kick so it would be nice to squeeze 1-3 this weekend. If that doesn't happen...I guess we hope for next week. 

It's especially annoying with either thin or no snow cover which is what southeast areas are doing right now. Jan 2004 was like that...I had like 2" on the ground the whole time...it would have been more enjoyable if we had 6"+ OTG.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That to me says we are in it to win it at this point.  It won't be going anywhere near 32F here for a very long time.  Heck it may not go near 20F for a long time haha.

Breaking out the flannel lined Carhartts and this is when you start wearing UnderArmor base layers just to get groceries.  

Just took a once over through the max temp forecasts for the long term, I don't have PWM back above 20 (not freezing) until day 8.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's especially annoying with either thin or no snow cover which is what southeast areas are doing right now. Jan 2004 was like that...I had like 2" on the ground the whole time...it would have been more enjoyable if we had 6"+ OTG.

 

 

I have like 2" or so OTG now and yeah...would be nice to get a little more. But It finally feels and looks like December so I'm happy about that.

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Just now, Snowedin said:

Yep, I completely agree with you guys. All this cold is completely pointless without a good snow event to go with it. Personally, I hate the cold but actually enjoy the snow..talk about about an internal battle huh?

Freeze the ponds over and have fun. Hoping to do that tomorrow and not make the news....lol.

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

To me, cold and dry is a nut kick so it would be nice to squeeze 1-3 this weekend. If that doesn't happen...I guess we hope for next week. 

Its usually a nut kick up here while you and Ginxy snow but I echo Will's statement that this year it won't annoy me as much with a foot of solid, ice encased snow on the ground topped with a couple fluffy inches.  It looks like solid winter to go along with the temps.   It's right at that point where another warning event quickly goes to deep winter status.

Back in the Leon period when it was cutter and SNE snow events only I was getting -20F with standing water/ice in the yard and grass blades showing through fluff.  That Jan 2014 cold snaps was my best melt on here ever.  Nothing worse than whiffing a bunch of events and then -20F for NNE, lol.

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1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_8.thumb.png.db003f20a7635b62d14192ad84540a2d.png

That's a actually a triple phaser right?  arctic/pv energy dropping in with a shortwave moving through the midwest and then the southern stream just off the coast?  I don't see any blocking to our N though - is there anything to slow it down?  maybe a neg tilt that pulls it back in?

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Earthlight's twitter feed (johnhomenuk) had a simulation of the EPS which shows the storm moving north, even bending left a bit in the GOM.  So not one of those that gets pushed ENE like the ones when we have stout blocking.  This means a chance for a full on all NE storm with great upslope afterwords I'd think.  Thats the only way I like to Miller A

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It was pretty decent, white xmas helped the ‘feel’ of winter. Could have been better, though, if one of the fraud d7 euro blizzards panned out. 

If there is relaxation in Jan, we need to take advantage of a big one. At some point, it would be nice if we got some help from a marginal -nao....a index that has had fewer sightings that the loch ness monster in the CT river. 

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30 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It was pretty decent, white xmas helped the ‘feel’ of winter. Could have been better, though, if one of the fraud d7 euro blizzards panned out. 

If there is relaxation in Jan, we need to take advantage of a big one. At some point, it would be nice if we got some help from a marginal -nao....a index that has had fewer sightings that the loch ness monster in the CT river. 

Other than Christmas, it’s forgettable for sure. That doesn’t mean I wouldn’t take it again....but won’t be remembered like other snowy Decembers. At least here. 

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