WinterWolf Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ur missing something, cuz we have had no blocking and the SE ridge wasn't an issue till now Exactly. You certainly want a -EPO. It's a marriage of Sorts. Some tele's are more important than others(EPO is certainly a big one), and the EPO you want on our side. But if the others are all against us, the EPO cant do it all, all of the time. Like was mentioned, if the trough axis is too far west then storms/systems cut to our west. If the Southeast Ridge is raging, then that helps systems cut as well. It's not just one thing that we can hang our hat on at any given time. If we have a raging -EPO like looks to be coming...but the trough is displaced too far to the west for optimal results for SNE, then that's when the other tele's can help out if they are favorable(NAO), if not then sometimes the EPO just cant do it on it's own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: Not the real story. Cutter risk is a function of the SE ridge amplitude which is best muted by NAO. I'll say the SE ridge is a function of the location and amplitude of the EPO. The PAC rules the roost with the ATL playing a supporting role for us. If we have a high amplitude ridge out west as being modeled around Christmas you will inherently have a SE Ridge. This is where having a high latitude blocking can save us and beat down that SE ridge. I see that potentially developing after Christmas time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2017 Author Share Posted December 18, 2017 46 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Exactly. You certainly want a -EPO. It's a marriage of Sorts. Some tele's are more important than others(EPO is certainly a big one), and the EPO you want on our side. But if the others are all against us, the EPO cant do it all, all of the time. Like was mentioned, if the trough axis is too far west then storms/systems cut to our west. If the Southeast Ridge is raging, then that helps systems cut as well. It's not just one thing that we can hang our hat on at any given time. If we have a raging -EPO like looks to be coming...but the trough is displaced too far to the west for optimal results for SNE, then that's when the other tele's can help out if they are favorable(NAO), if not then sometimes the EPO just cant do it on it's own. Which others are against us aside from NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: It’s been an issue all along. That’s why we’ve had thaws in between. We had a thread the needle deal last weekend but get a wound up system and it will try to cut. Pickles would have gone insane in 95/96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Pickles would have gone insane in 95/96 I’ll take another hundo, even if it floods out in the heart of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Epo and Wpo are crashing Cold weather should be here by xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 GFS going towards torch Christmas day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS going towards towards Christmas day Might salvage a white Christmas for NNE. The rest just get a salt washing rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Ehh, we can work with what we got from that GFS run. Verbatim, front-end snow above 84/90 before changing over. Better than what it was showing few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 I look forward to cooking with the windows open just like WX blue did in North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 35 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Epo and Wpo are crashing Cold weather should be here by xmas You are setting yourself up for disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: You are setting yourself up for disappointment. No I'm not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017121812&fh=186&xpos=0&ypos=0 I know there's a bit of a washout not shown, but still looking pretty good for NNE. Net gainer up there for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 GFS verbatim is snow to ice inland and snow to rain for coast...but it's trending the Euro's way. That could easily end up warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: No I'm not We'll be fortunate if the cold arrives for Wednesday but by then the damage has been done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 18 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: You are setting yourself up for disappointment. He’s an eternal optimist, which is fine. As I said in the NYC forum anyone claiming victory at this lead time is also setting up for failure. Allot of players on the field, some very positive. Let’s see how it shakes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 GFS misses on follow up wave just after Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS verbatim is snow to ice inland and snow to rain for coast...but it's trending the Euro's way. That could easily end up warm. EPS brings the front through, Euro had a 60 degree high, GFS now 33. I would wait on calling one run a trend. This could go either way using Ensemble forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: GFS misses on follow up wave just after Christmas. Its LR +300 is 1000 miles different at 5h too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 This lr gifs run keeps dumping core of cold into Sw while 6z was more east. Hopefully 6z is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 7 minutes ago, JC-CT said: That's pretty much my Christmas forecast down here; highs all week in the low 80's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: He’s an eternal optimist, which is fine. As I said in the NYC forum anyone claiming victory at this lead time is also setting up for failure. Allot of players on the field, some very positive. Let’s see how it shakes out Its not fine, its dumb. Go start a cheerleading forum with that horse$hit. He needs to start supporting claims. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its not fine, its dumb. Go start a cheerleading forum with that horse$hit. He needs to start supporting claims. I have been bashed many times because of this and ended up being right. With the epo and wpo tanking , there should be enough cold air near Xmas for the storm to be off the coast. Gefs supports that. Still a while to go but it's not going to be warm on Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 The Cold is definitely coming....the big question is whether it gets here in time for the 25th?? It may? If more cold gets dumped east of the Rockies than west, it will arrive sooner. If not, it may take a day or two longer for it to arrive. But it's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Epo and Wpo are crashing Cold weather should be here by xmas 48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS going towards torch Christmas day I'm secretly enjoying this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: I have been bashed many times because of this and ended up being right. With the epo and wpo tanking , there should be enough cold air near Xmas for the storm to be off the coast. Gefs supports that. Still a while to go but it's not going to be warm on Xmas. The fact that the indices are taking is meaningless unless ridge orientation is in the correct place for the east coast. The cold may dump into the Plains and we are left on warm side of the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: I have been bashed many times because of this and ended up being right. With the epo and wpo tanking , there should be enough cold air near Xmas for the storm to be off the coast. Gefs supports that. Still a while to go but it's not going to be warm on Xmas. The EPO is in the East PACIFIC...how in the hell does that block a storm from cutting??? All the EPO does is ensure that it is cold before and after any storm, but you are still subject to timing issues and amplitude of the SW with regard to track. Saying it won't cut soley becuase of the EPO is wrong, and just because ypu happen to get lucky does not mean the EPO stopped it from cutting. You are either wrong, or wrong and lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Give us your call Ray? What do you think is going to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I look forward to cooking with the windows open just like WX blue did in North Carolina. This won't be 12/2015 again. But yeah...warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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