RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Indices are not linear to backyard weather, just accept it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Give us your call Ray? What do you think is going to happen? It's a week a way. Nobody can predict something a week out. If you have a gun to your head, the truth is you can't make a forecast a week out so what you do is you keep an eye on the model with the better verification scores. Probability is on the side of the Euro. Watch the Euro and see how things are taking shape as we get closer to the event. Don't be the weenie who thinks they can make a spot on forecast 7 days from the event. Don't be the weenie asking for a spot on forecast 7 days from and event, and then ready to bash people when it doesn't work out 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Indices are not linear to backyard weather, just accept it. PNA is pretty darn linear, if you are looking for such a thing. But good luck forecasting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Give us your call Ray? What do you think is going to happen? Enjoy the rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 “Bold” prediction. The first snow event was a result of a front being much further west once it cleared the area than was forecast 3-4-5-7 days out. That has occurred a ton since 2014 so why wouldn’t it happen again? I see no way this isn’t a rain event mostly for the 25th or 26th. Still, the idea that the SE ridge may push out to 12/31 or 1/1 that some ensembles showed 5-7 days ago was clearly bogus from the start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Just now, JC-CT said: PNA is pretty darn linear, if you are looking for such a thing. But good luck forecasting it. Kind of, but depends where the ridge is placed, it changes sensible weather. Just like the -nao, they think it equates to no cutters and weenie storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: The Cold is definitely coming... He says on December 18th. Bold call, sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 1 minute ago, #NoPoles said: It's a week a way. Nobody can predict something a week out. If you have a gun to your head, the truth is you can't make a forecast a week out so what you do is you keep an eye on the model with the better verification scores. Probability is on the side of the Euro. Watch the Euro and see how things are taking shape as we get closer to the event. Don't be the weenie who thinks they can make a spot on forecast 7 days from the event. Don't be the weenie asking for a spot on forecast 7 days from and event, and then ready to bash people when it doesn't work out 100% I wouldn't expect anybody to give a spot on forecast a week away....ever. I just asked what somebody "Thought was going to happen?" Anthony gave his opinion...maybe he's wrong? Maybe it works out the cold gets here sooner? He was asked to support his idea, and he did. He's not a MET, neither am I or you. I've been saying for a while, that this is a ways out...things have been changing so fast...it's hard to keep up. I agree, I wouldn't be locking anything in a week away. The cold is coming though...just a matter of if it gets here for the 25th. And I have no problem with rain on xmas day...not one bit. I left those ideas/feelings behind a long time ago. Would love some snow, but not a big deal if it rains either. Life is too short to worry about that nonsense, and let it ruin your day/holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: He says on December 18th. Bold call, sir. Cut him some slack, he is usually very undecisive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I wouldn't expect anybody to give a spot on forecast a week away....ever. I just asked what somebody "Thought was going to happen?" Anthony gave his opinion...maybe he's wrong? Maybe it works out the cold gets here sooner? He was asked to support his idea, and he did. He's not a MET, neither am I or you. I've been saying for a while, that this is a ways out...things have been changing so fast...it's hard to keep up. I agree, I wouldn't be locking anything in a week away. The cold is coming though...just a matter of if it gets here for the 25th. And I have no problem with rain on xmas day...not one bit. I left those ideas/feelings behind a long time ago. Would love some snow, but not a big deal if it rains either. Life is too short to worry about that nonsense, and let it ruin your day/holiday. I’ll grind my kid’s presents in the garbage disposal on xmas morning if it’s 55f and humid, again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Kind of, but depends where the ridge is placed, it changes sensible weather. Just like the -nao, they think it equates to no cutters and weenie storms. A +PNA pattern is pretty much defined as ridging in the west and troughing in the east. Of course it doesn't guarantee weenie storms, but it guarantees that there won't be a west coast trough and an east coast ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Cut him some slack, he is usually very undecisive. LOL...good one. Everybody calm the F down. With an EPO that negative it's gonna dump a ton of cold into the center of the nation...and it's going to push east..I think that is pretty certain. If not for the 25th, then shortly thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’ll grind my kid’s presents in the garbage disposal on xmas morning if it’s 55f and humid, again. Post pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’ll grind my kid’s presents in the garbage disposal on xmas morning if it’s 55f and humid, again. Wood chipper works better and it will be warm enough to work comfortably outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 some educational reading, read the whole thread and oh Anthony, when the EPO tanked for our cold spell the pNA also shot up, check the indices for next week, flatter PNA means risk of a couple of warm days, but anyways read this https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/942648130058600448 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Give us your call Ray? What do you think is going to happen? I don't know, but I'd lean toward a milder solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’ll grind my kid’s presents in the garbage disposal on xmas morning if it’s 55f and humid, again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't know, but I'd lean toward a milder solution. OK fair enough. You're probably right. I too think it will take a lil longer for the cold to get here(not that it matters what I believe). Let's just see how all this plays out over the next week. BTW, nice post Ginx...some of it was over my head...but I got the general jist of what Philippe was getting at. Interesting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: OK fair enough. You're probably right. I too think it will take a lil longer for the cold to get here(not that it matters what I believe). Let's just see how all this plays out over the next week. BTW, nice post Ginx...some of it was over my head...but I got the general jist of what Philippe was getting at. Interesting for sure. Its fine to support a colder solution, but offering up a negative EPO as the lone rational pretty one dimensional and ill founded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Post pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Cold and dry , penny and nickel, or amped and mild Over running represents our best shot of a warning event. Wake me when we have a PNA ridge and slap me silly when we see any atlantic blocking (and the Pacific is still good) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 33 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Cold and dry , penny and nickel, or amped and mild Over running represents our best shot of a warning event. Wake me when we have a PNA ridge and slap me silly when we see any atlantic blocking (and the Pacific is still good) Have a good nap, see ya in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Well 12z Euro trended colder for Christmas day compared to 0z. Thats a start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Baby steps, Euro cave to US? big changes, almost there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Need another 250 miles or so...possible for 7 days out, but not feeling overly optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Better, but still: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 It’s disgusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Need another 250 miles or so...possible for 7 days out, but not feeling overly optimistic. it just jumped 250 in one run, it stopped dumping the Energy in the SW, EPS should be interesting CNE NNE are back in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: it just jumped 250 in one run, EPS was colder so I guess it's not unexpected, curious to see what they say when they are out in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2017 Author Share Posted December 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s disgusting. We’re gonna have fun tonight! Don’t taunt us weenies too much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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