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Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide


weathafella

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6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Interesting evolution on the CMC.  A multi day, multi wave, mixed event.  Big snows across the interior.  I think this is going to continue to jump around on guidance.  Highly trackable for now though!

I wouldn't touch the CMC on this storm.  The previous runs have been horrible with it so far.  It's still catching up after being way off just a couple of days ago.  I know all the models have been changing a lot with the storm but the CMC has been the worst.

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1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said:

I wouldn't touch the CMC on this storm.  The previous runs have been horrible with it so far.  It's still catching up after being way off just a couple of days ago.  I know all the models have been changing a lot with the storm but the CMC has been the worst.

Literally, name one thing about what you said that is new.

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

EPS with a nice storm setup for the 30th too

That one's been showing up on a lot of guidance...GEFS have it too but more like 28-29th. There's definitely a very good setup in that timeframe. Monster cold high to the north which gives some extra wiggle room on shortwave nuances.

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Balls cold

Ridiculously so.   850s this far out are pretty crazy and that signal has been there for awhile.  People worrying about week 4-lets see a sign first.  MJO progs do not yet indicate cause for much worry so I won’t be surprised to see tomorrow’s weeklies mute any week 4 and beyond warmth.  That said-week 4 and beyond have little skill no matter what it shows.

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maybe we have to withstand a few cruddy systems before something better, at least it will be fairly snowy up north which is more overdue than my next hand pay...almost no one back this way and especially n/w is complaining but the epicosity crowd seems especially pensive

must be like heroin....the highs the E crowd have had are just so intoxicating that they seem to just want more and more and more, fortunately I have not had that problem

furthermore at some point the E crowd is going to have to withstand some regression to the mean

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