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Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide


weathafella

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Who is mad?

lol right?  

Its 6 days away.  That's an eternity in model land.  There may not even be any storm period.  

I'm a little weary of the day 4-6 pump fake, where it looks good then starts going back the other way, but that's just because I don't want to tell everyone it looks like snow on Christmas, only to have it go back to something from earlier runs.

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52 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

maybe we have to withstand a few cruddy systems before something better, at least it will be fairly snowy up north which is more overdue than my next hand pay...almost no one back this way and especially n/w is complaining but the epicosity crowd seems especially pensive

must be like heroin....the highs the E crowd have had are just so intoxicating that they seem to just want more and more and more, fortunately I have not had that problem

furthermore at some point the E crowd is going to have to withstand some regression to the mean

:lmao:

Can you picture the man breaking fishing poles in half in a drunken rage?

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18 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

lol....Norwalk or Newington?  I can come to the one in Newington and would attend every meeting

I was thinking more North End Boston, for the addicted EMA crowd Codfish is angry at. 

You have suffered enough in death valley over the years and I have busted/missed on a number of big events. 

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1 hour ago, codfishsnowman said:

maybe we have to withstand a few cruddy systems before something better, at least it will be fairly snowy up north which is more overdue than my next hand pay...almost no one back this way and especially n/w is complaining but the epicosity crowd seems especially pensive

must be like heroin....the highs the E crowd have had are just so intoxicating that they seem to just want more and more and more, fortunately I have not had that problem

furthermore at some point the E crowd is going to have to withstand some regression to the mean

Lol, project much?

Nobody here is complaining. It’s also important to point out that everyone has done half decent overall.

Has Anyone had it bad?the skiing has been pretty good.

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7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

gfs still not buying xmas. Comprimise with eura would be nice.

I am still dead on the path it’s going to resemble the east members of the EPS.   Looking at numerous other models for the event and using biases/tendencies vs the GFS/Euro when we see this sort of scenario unfolds leads directly to a weaker storm idea.   I don’t even use the Canadian since it’s just usually too wacko and inconsistent from event to event but the NAM at 84/NavGem coupled with about 4-5 other foreign models I usually use all are anti storm for the most part and usually at least 2 from that group would already be amped 

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8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I am still dead on the path it’s going to resemble the east members of the EPS.   Looking at numerous other models for the event and using biases/tendencies vs the GFS/Euro when we see this sort of scenario unfolds leads directly to a weaker storm idea.   I don’t even use the Canadian since it’s just usually too wacko and inconsistent from event to event but the NAM at 84/NavGem coupled with about 4-5 other foreign models I usually use all are anti storm for the most part and usually at least 2 from that group would already be amped 

As much as I want the EURO solution to pan out, I do think there's a very real chance its not that organized and/or passes out to the south with areas of snow showers and weird meso-scale stuff bringing some light snows.  The compression of the height fields in the northeast looks like a meat grinder scenario would certainly be possible.  Compressed fast flow may very well win out.

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6 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Where should I be looking at to see possible ZR vs IP?  850s? 

Scott gave a nice primer. The best way is definitely forecast soundings.

Typically you need about 1000 m of >0C air to fully melt a hydrometeor. So if you have a deep region of +1C, you can still get a lot of FZRA. At the surface you want close to 1000 m of <0C air to fully refreeze to PL (ideally with the coldest temp in the near surface cold layer -6C or less).

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

As much as I want the EURO solution to pan out, I do think there's a very real chance its not that organized and/or passes out to the south with areas of snow showers and weird meso-scale stuff bringing some light snows.  The compression of the height fields in the northeast looks like a meat grinder scenario would certainly be possible.  Compressed fast flow may very well win out.

I feel like this has some thing going for a more hugger solution too. I take 3-5" and a dryslot and you can get your 12" of gold. 

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