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Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide


weathafella

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21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sorry for the crap in the thread, guys....but I'm glad something constructive came out of it in the end.

As Isotherm stated yesterday...you were both kind of right.  He explained it pretty well.   Anthony did also mention the MJO as well when he was calling for a trend towards a colder solution..so to be honest he just wasn't only harping on the -EPO either.   I think you both have valid points...and as we all know it's always a marriage of sorts between all of these tele's and nuances.  

 

Glad we're all friends again.  

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6 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Wait....Wut?....You just got over a foot of snow the other day....LOL

Its raining and semi warm now and it was expected to be rainy and warm originally the 23/24th.  That wave has trended towards a swfe with more snow to rain which would save Christmas. We would get through today but not the latter imo.  

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Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Where should I be looking at to see possible ZR vs IP?  850s? 

925 was near zero, but 850 was very mild. In theory, you should look at soundings..but the euro folks are limited on that. If 925 is below 0, but 850 is like +3 or so..probably sleet. If 850 was +5 or more..might be more ZR because you just completely melted the hydrometeor and there may not be enough time to freeze. 

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that would not be good...but I bet there is IP there. 

Yeah esp early on...prob quick inch or two fo SN to IP to ZR....not really worth parsing too much at 120 hours...esp given the model spread right now. But it could be a decent impact. GFS is prob wrong...all other guidance has an event. Maybe if we weight the GFS like 25% it would turn out great for most of the forum...colder/snowier solution.

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