JC-CT Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: End of the year snowstorm is still there on the 12z GFS. Another 4-8" deal. Some real weenie GEFS members in there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Yup. 24h mean precip is >0.75" just S on LI. >0.50 in southern half of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I'm actually fine in cold weather. Skied Le Massif last year in -10F and had a blast. But there are those in my family who suffer from chronically cold hands...gonna be a tough trip for her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 Euro substantially caved to GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Euro substantially caved to GFS Model has been sputtering lately. Gonna be a long winter if the king is unreliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Euro substantially caved to GFS This is almost becoming routine, perplexing indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Very interesting look just before New Years on todays 12z Euro. PV splits in 2 and storm forms in between and rides up along the eastern seaboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Very interesting look just before New Years on todays 12z Euro. PV splits in 2 and storm forms in between and rides up along the eastern seaboard. While I'm hoping for the Christmas miracle...I'm still a bit skeptical it works out for us down here on the shoreline...so the New Years event is the one I really have my eye on. Seems Euro may argue for a front end thumper to mix/rain for a chunk of the region...vs GGEM and GFS which keep the cold locked in. Of course 10-days out, so no use getting wrapped up in specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said: While I'm hoping for the Christmas miracle...I'm still a bit skeptical it works out for us down here on the shoreline...so the New Years event is the one I really have my eye on. Seems Euro may argue for a front end thumper to mix/rain for a chunk of the region...vs GGEM and GFS which keep the cold locked in. Of course 10-days out, so no use getting wrapped up in specifics. Skeptical in the sense of rain/snow or precip in general? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 18 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Very interesting look just before New Years on todays 12z Euro. PV splits in 2 and storm forms in between and rides up along the eastern seaboard. It’s a big signal on gfs, gefs, and now eura. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s a big signal on gfs, gefs, and now eura. 10 day totals are not bad. We'd all be well above normal to date for snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, WintersComing said: Skeptical in the sense of rain/snow or precip in general? For x-mas...I'd like to see another couple runs before celebrating. We'll have colder air filtering x-mas eve...but if it ends up a weaker event like the Euro I worry cold won't be well established and we'll be dealing with BL issues...but I'm strictly speaking right along the shoreline...just inland should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Mr. Windcredible! said: For x-mas...I'd like to see another couple runs before celebrating. We'll have colder air filtering x-mas eve...but if it ends up a weaker event like the Euro I worry cold won't be well established and we'll be dealing with BL issues...but I'm strictly speaking right along the shoreline...just inland should be fine. Gotcha.....I would think shoreline would want a bit of a flatter type system rather than something deeper wrapping in the warmer ocean air...no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 13 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 10 day totals are not bad. We'd all be well above normal to date for snowfall. I dont think snow maps do justic with the type of potential though. a split flow with the pv overhead can zonk a big one. All things considered, we are riped to be snowy...just need to get lucky. “One time!” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I dont think snow maps do justic with the type of potential though. a split flow with the pv overhead can zonk a big one. All things considered, we are riped to be snowy...just need to get lucky. “One time!” Lol...I already told my wife we leave for FL after the snow Xmas day and return before the snow late week. She’s down for that so we’re good. EPS looks good for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 30 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 10 day totals are not bad. We'd all be well above normal to date for snowfall. Currently 7" BN for cumulative snow here. If that verifies, we'd still be 7-8" BN on New Year's Eve. At least the pack wouldn't all be Grinch-ed out of existence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I think that event is the big one in my 12/24 to 1/8 window. I'm on board for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 hour ago, Hazey said: Model has been sputtering lately. Gonna be a long winter if the king is unreliable. It looks like the over hyped king has been dethroned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said: It looks like the over hyped king has been dethroned! How do-on a d7+ prog? Because that’s what I was referencing. Gfs caved to the euro on every aspect inside of d5. Remember gfs was dry Monday as recently as 18z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 13 minutes ago, weathafella said: How do-on a d7+ prog? Because that’s what I was referencing. Gfs caved to the euro on every aspect inside of d5. Remember gfs was dry Monday as recently as 18z yesterday. Yes I see what you were saying now. It's just that all of the models are struggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I've found that the models are really struggling past day 9 recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think that event is the big one in my 12/24 to 1/8 window. I'm on board for that. yea I have kept that in my mind when I first read your outlook, hope it happens. Been a few years since I have seen an EPS run like this with cold and snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I know we have two events to focus on, but that was a weenie run of GFS. Even could give SNE light snow event on the 27th before that big system couple days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, WxBlue said: I know we have two events to focus on, but that was a weenie run of GFS. Even could give SNE light snow event on the 27th before that big system couple days later. That's been there for a bit, I agree we shouldn't sleep on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: That's been there for a bit, I agree we shouldn't sleep on it. Sneaky system for sure. And everyone will want to focus on the possible big dog later that week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Look don't give me any sh it for posting this as we know its wrong but I had to laugh, last time I saw a map like this was in 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Nice 75" in Oswego area. Lets shift that whole thing southeast 200 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Look don't give me any sh it for posting this as we know its wrong but I had to laugh, last time I saw a map like this was in 15 We wouldn't be doing our job if we didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 42 minutes ago, Hoth said: Nice 75" in Oswego area. Lets shift that whole thing southeast 200 miles. Lake Ontario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: Lake Ontario? Yes please! Wouldn't mind being in a lake effect belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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