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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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First time in a long time we've gotten some possibilities this early. Color me excited for this winter and the next 3 months. Bring on some real blocking and big wedges

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Makes me think of the really cold winter we had in the late 90’s I believe.  Pond froze over in our neighborhood enough to walk on.  Several teenagers, definitely a dumb idea but luckily no one fell in. :)

 Never happened again after that or anywhere close really.  Not sure if it was snowy that year or not as I could see that much cold suppressing storms but regardless definitely excited!

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15 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Makes me think of the really cold winter we had in the late 90’s I believe.  Pond froze over in our neighborhood enough to walk on.  Several teenagers, definitely a dumb idea but luckily no one fell in. :)

 Never happened again after that or anywhere close really.  Not sure if it was snowy that year or not as I could see that much cold suppressing storms but regardless definitely excited!

We had ponds frozen here last winter. First 2 weeks of January  temps not above freezing. I saw images of someone I've skating on a pond in Surry County. 

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What are the chances of the southeast moisture fetch continuing into and thru the winter? I know some is due to hurricanes, but nevertheless the two closest personal weather stations to where I live, one east and one west, both show me getting roughly 40" of rain over the past three months!

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2 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

Yeah, we had coves freeze over on Lake Norman last year.

Ponds frozen over here in Wilson as well, and we are well into the coastal plain.  Heck I saw pics of some ice on the edges of the sounds.  Truly a cold snap to remember.  I expect that that may be the best cold snap I see in my lifetime.

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23 minutes ago, Chuck said:

What are the chances of the southeast moisture fetch continuing into and thru the winter? I know some is due to hurricanes, but nevertheless the two closest personal weather stations to where I live, one east and one west, both show me getting roughly 40" of rain over the past three months!

One of the most predictable features during el nino winters is + precip anomalies for DJF stretching from SoCal > desert SW > southeast > midatlantic. Odds of  wet winter are above normal 

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10 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Ponds frozen over here in Wilson as well, and we are well into the coastal plain.  Heck I saw pics of some ice on the edges of the sounds.  Truly a cold snap to remember.  I expect that that may be the best cold snap I see in my lifetime.

I don't think ponds freezing over are that rare north of 85 or so. I can think of a number of years where the ponds around here froze; 2017, 2015, 2014, 2011, 2010, just this decade. Of course it may only last a couple days at a time, but it's not unusual. Last year was unusual just b/c the duration and thickness, and because some rivers even started freezing.

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6 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I don't think ponds freezing over are that rare north of 85 or so. I can think of a number of years where the ponds around here froze; 2017, 2015, 2014, 2011, 2010, just this decade. Of course it may only last a couple days at a time, but it's not unusual. Last year was unusual just b/c the duration and thickness, and because some rivers even started freezing.

Just about every year we get a period where the pond next to my house freezes over. About once every three years, I'll see Falls Lake freeze over at least partially (coves) or almost totally as it did last year. 

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6 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Where did fall go? Freezing fog and 26 here right now. 

We had no fall. September into the first part of October was true summer (with the hurricanes). Then the second half of October to now it basically turned to winter. Straight from ac to heat. 

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39 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

We had no fall. September into the first part of October was true summer (with the hurricanes). Then the second half of October to now it basically turned to winter. Straight from ac to heat. 

Been awhile since we could say that... Normally it is all heat, extremely delayed fall, with only 1 month of true winter

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The modeling for todays indices are about as good as it gets in the LR.

PNA - Looks to go strongly positive - Great

A0 - Looks to go strongly negative - Great

NAO - Looks to go strongly negative - Great

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

This would come together the last part of November into December. For many of us (especially outside the mountains) this is the time of year winter storms become more possible. **as discussed already, this past storm was just a little too early in the year for a major piedmont winter storm.   

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55 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Been awhile since we could say that... Normally it is all heat, extremely delayed fall, with only 1 month of true winter

In Orangeburg for sure. From Columbia to Orangeburg and Columbia to Florence is the hottest place I’ve been in America. Oppressive heat in the summer with no breeze. 

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11 hours ago, Chuck said:

What are the chances of the southeast moisture fetch continuing into and thru the winter? I know some is due to hurricanes, but nevertheless the two closest personal weather stations to where I live, one east and one west, both show me getting roughly 40" of rain over the past three months!

Hard to say. I remember 09-10 was frustrating for me at least. Early on everything kept missing just north. Then when the real cold came it shut down the gulf for 2 weeks or so. That winter didn't produce until the end of January into February for areas south of 85 if my memory is correct.

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10 hours ago, FallsLake said:

The modeling for todays indices are about as good as it gets in the LR.

PNA - Looks to go strongly positive - Great

A0 - Looks to go strongly negative - Great

NAO - Looks to go strongly negative - Great

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

This would come together the last part of November into December. For many of us (especially outside the mountains) this is the time of year winter storms become more possible. **as discussed already, this past storm was just a little too early in the year for a major piedmont winter storm.   

Up north in my forum, somebody once called that the holy grail...lol Hope it holds for all of us snow eligible regions on the EC! :D

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