olafminesaw Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 There's the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 12z ECMWF takes the center of Maria right over Puerto Rico, terrible run for San Juan as they take the brunt of the Northern eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Talk about a complex setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 euro showing jose strengthening over the next 24hrs, not sure about that given the current presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Talk about a complex setup High pressure across the MW/NE, Jose just east of due north of Maria, an upper level low over the northern gulf coast, and a weak high to the east of Maria. Geesh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Just now, DopplerWx said: euro showing jose strengthening over the next 24hrs, not sure about that given the current presentation. Models have done a pretty horrid job overall with Jose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Just now, DopplerWx said: euro showing jose strengthening over the next 24hrs, not sure about that given the current presentation. Probably completes transition to purely extratropical and begins redepening that way, while not necessarily restrengthening(could be just expanding). Although I haven't looked at the euro. I'm just making a call based on current presentation and what's forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Check out the SW side of Jose, how it's drying out reaching a calm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: euro showing jose strengthening over the next 24hrs, not sure about that given the current presentation. Also shows it restrengthening as it makes its loop back to the west. LOL. GFS seems much more believeable than the euro with its handling of Jose at this point imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Jose is still around the U.S at 162 hours and coming back west towards the coast. Maria looks to go OTS on this run due to Jose being there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 GFS has Jose weakening to the point that the ridging can build back up. The Euro has it much stronger and gives Maria an exit lane. Just going to have to see what happens to Jose in the next 24 to 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Jose is still around the U.S at 162 hours and coming back west towards the coast. Maria looks to go OTS on this run due to Jose being there. Nope, going to see a crazy Fujiwara swing into the East coast this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 As long as the ECMWF continues to evolve and deepen a post-tropical/hybrid mid-level storm out of Jose and lock it down in the same general region off the Mid-Atlantic and New England coast, it will continue to funnel mid-level steering in an OTS solution for Maria. Until we see it either go back to modeling a much weaker and filled/dissipated remnant of Jose's 500mb vort or kick it out altogether, modeled landfall for Maria is unlikely. I do think it is overdoing the intensity of 500mb cold core baroclinic forcing. I think a more likely solution is the ECMWF's earlier runs showing strong filling of heights and a build back of ridging. That still doesn't mean landfall, but a close call versus sharp OTS. Still a long way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Like I said, Fujiwara Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 seems your buying into such a scenario.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 less weight on Jose, I think. easy model bias identified. Maria is its own beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Trough then kicks Maria and what's left to Jose finally OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 So basically the euro from the other night filled Jose in and ran Maria right into NC on a steady NW motion. The GFS was stronger and took Jose further south towards bermuda and ejected maria out to sea. It seems as if the two models have swapped solutions for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TomAtkins Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 16 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Trough then kicks Maria and what's left to Jose finally OTS If only. If you look at hour 240 it looks like the remnant low of Jose gets missed by the trough that takes Maria out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, TomAtkins said: If only. If you look at hour 240 it looks like the remnant low of Jose gets missed by the trough that takes Maria out to sea. are you the tom atkins of erie weather fame? if so, you inspired me way back in the day to get into the wx hobby. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 I call BS on that Euro run, there's no extra energy that's pumping up Jose, he's already weakening quickly and will soon be north of the gulf stream. Gfs has done a better job track wise with Jose, Euro kept bringing him too far west. Gfs probably has the right idea at least through day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 54 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: euro showing jose strengthening over the next 24hrs, not sure about that given the current presentation. Probably baroclinic deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 I sure wish we didn't have to wait until evening for the next recon measurements. The eye has popped and cleared very quickly, with a very intense ring around it. The eye has shown significant motion toward the nw the last couple hours. Wobble or not, that could put the worst on the northern coast of Dominica rather than the sw, where the capital is. Most of Guadeloupe's population is in the central to north part of the island(s), but there is also a decent population center on the sw corner, which could take a big hit if Maria tracks far enough north. Worst case would be the eye tracking into the middle of Guadeloupe, but that's probably too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 28 minutes ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said: nice little story about that volcano. Out of 30,000 people, Only 2 people survived. 1 of them was locked up in a concrete jail at the time. (pictured in link) It's also what saved his life - http://www.atlasobscura.com/places/the-prison-cell-of-ludger-sylbaris If there's one thing these hurricanes have given me, it's a lesson in geography of the Lesser Antilles....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Yes, amazing eyewall presentation on radar. This probably is stronger than last recon data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 44 minutes ago, shaggy said: So basically the euro from the other night filled Jose in and ran Maria right into NC on a steady NW motion. The GFS was stronger and took Jose further south towards bermuda and ejected maria out to sea. It seems as if the two models have swapped solutions for the time being. Pretty much. But honestly, they could swap again or just show us something new. We are about 9 days out give or take. Ages. Nothing would surprise me this season. I'm not ready to bet on any model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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