Hurricane Maria

[Superstorm93]

NHC went with 925 mb for the 8pm. 

Still no VDM 

[dan11295]

We are looking at two different landfalling category 5 hurricanes in the islands in just over two weeks, that is insane. IFAIK there were no recorded Cat 5 landfalls East of PR in the satellite area before this year.

[Windspeed]

I don't see that recon has made their turn yet. The western wall is getting close to the eastern Dominica coast. We may not be getting that NE pass after all. Perhaps they got spooked. There is a serious incline of elevation that could produce some horrific turbulance. That may be it, folks.

[csnavywx]

4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

From the 8pm advisory:

 

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface
winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations
could be even greater.

Yeah, we're talking wind speeds that can debark trees, cause ground scouring and deform reinforced buildings.

[Amped]

The east side of the island is where most of the population is.  

[catdaddyfalcon15]

1 minute ago, Jim Martin said:

Man, is that a good looking, healthy eye, incredible. Well dominica is about to be wiped off the map. this season has been insane and its not even close to over.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 0:07Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303 
Storm Number & Year: 15 in 2017
Storm Name: Maria (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 23:30:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°15'N 61°01'W (15.25N 61.0167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 25 statute miles (39 km) to the E (100°) from Roseau, Dominica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,488m (8,163ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 139kts (~ 160.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the NNW (333°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 64° at 136kts (From the ENE at ~ 156.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the NNW (333°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 928mb (27.41 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,033m (9,951ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,037m (9,964ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed 
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 136kts (~ 156.5mph) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the NNW (333°) from the flight level center at 23:28:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 180° at 40kts (From the S at 46mph)

Staying strong with the pinpoint eye. Will be interesting to see if terrain interaction sparks an ERC 

[Hurricane Agnes]

8 pm update -

 

[Superstorm93]

6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

I don't see that recon has made their turn yet. The western wall is getting close to the eastern Dominica coast. We not get that NE pass after all. Perhaps they got spooked. There is a serious incline of elevation that could produce some horrific turbulance. That may be it, folks.

 

Its going to be really close. I think they'll be able to get a sliver of the NE eyewall. 

 

[Windspeed]

I don't see that recon has made their turn yet. The western wall is getting close to the eastern Dominica coast. We may not be getting that NE pass after all. Perhaps they got spooked. There is a serious incline of elevation that could produce some horrific turbulance. That may be it, folks.

Okay nevermind this. They just made their turn north up the eastern side. So a NE to SW pass is coming. Holy crap this is going to be right down to the wire.

[hlcater]

7 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

I don't see that recon has made their turn yet. The western wall is getting close to the eastern Dominica coast. We not get that NE pass after all. Perhaps they got spooked. There is a serious incline of elevation that could produce some horrific turbulance. That may be it, folks.

Looks like they're gonna go for it.

[Amped]

Took another jog to the WSW, man it really wants to find away around those mountains, but it can't and will have to make the leap at some point.. My Guess is the eyewall will try to funnel through the saddle point in the middle, while the center passes over the south end.

[Papa Joe]

2 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Radar has almost Andrew-like appearance:

http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles

(different track but Charley 2004 perhaps)

Heading straight for Roseau Dominica unfortunately, pray for a wobble. 

The satellite animation (drop down) on that page is even more amazing. The eye goes from non-existant to pinhole in the course of a few frames. 

[Windspeed]

West wall is crossing coastline.

[Roger Smith]

There could be a major disaster in the making here and if anyone better connected than me (to large government or military resources) reads this, it would no doubt save lives down the road to begin plans for a rapid response, the local government will not only be overwhelmed, it could easily be obliterated. I envisage a combination of Homestead wind damage and Tacloban storm surge, thousands left with very little shelter and hundreds of injured in massive debris fields (all over the island basically but 75% of population lives in southwest quadrant). There will only be a small trickle of info coming out for 2-3 days but we could assume this need will exist starting in about an hour. Large French resources probably exist very close, although the way this thing is going, city of Basse-Terre will take quite a wallop and Pointe-a-Pitre a major storm surge so that will perhaps tie down those resources. 

This will be far worse than even St-Maarten. I don't think Roseau is protected at all by terrain or wind direction considerations because of the extreme intensity of this storm. Will be happy to be proven wrong but I expect the place to be flattened and exposed to 20-30 ft storm surge. (this also happened in 1780, and everything on Barbados was destroyed despite them being south of the eye). 

It should be noted that new moon is just 30 hours away and this will be an aggravating factor down the road in PR and eastern Dominican Republic storm surge potentials. 

[andyhb]

6 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

There could be a major disaster in the making here and if anyone better connected than me (to large government or military resources) reads this, it would no doubt save lives down the road to begin plans for a rapid response, the local government will not only be overwhelmed, it could easily be obliterated. I envisage a combination of Homestead wind damage and Tacloban storm surge, thousands left with very little shelter and hundreds of injured in massive debris fields (all over the island basically but 75% of population lives in southwest quadrant). There will only be a small trickle of info coming out for 2-3 days but we could assume this need will exist starting in about an hour. Large French resources probably exist very close, although the way this thing is going, city of Basse-Terre will take quite a wallop and Pointe-a-Pitre a major storm surge so that will perhaps tie down those resources. 

This will be far worse than even St-Maarten. I don't think Roseau is protected at all by terrain or wind direction considerations because of the extreme intensity of this storm. Will be happy to be proven wrong but I expect the place to be flattened and exposed to 20-30 ft storm surge. (this also happened in 1780, and everything on Barbados was destroyed despite them being south of the eye). 

This will not be a Tacloban storm surge. Maria is not as big as Haiyan was in size nor has it been an intense hurricane for nearly as long as Haiyan was prior to landfall (i.e. two of the most important aspects for building a large storm surge).

There is no need to excessively hype an already dire situation.

[Windspeed]

There could be a major disaster in the making here and if anyone better connected than me (to large government or military resources) reads this, it would no doubt save lives down the road to begin plans for a rapid response, the local government will not only be overwhelmed, it could easily be obliterated. I envisage a combination of Homestead wind damage and Tacloban storm surge, thousands left with very little shelter and hundreds of injured in massive debris fields (all over the island basically but 75% of population lives in southwest quadrant). There will only be a small trickle of info coming out for 2-3 days but we could assume this need will exist starting in about an hour. Large French resources probably exist very close, although the way this thing is going, city of Basse-Terre will take quite a wallop and Pointe-a-Pitre a major storm surge so that will perhaps tie down those resources. 

 

This will be far worse than even St-Maarten. I don't think Roseau is protected at all by terrain or wind direction considerations because of the extreme intensity of this storm. Will be happy to be proven wrong but I expect the place to be flattened and exposed to 20-30 ft storm surge. (this also happened in 1780, and everything on Barbados was destroyed despite them being south of the eye). 

Even though Roseau is not in a protected harbor and they are exposed, they have a rocky and elevated shoreline. The incline from sea bottom, shoreline is steep in places and the general overall topography rises to inhabited ridges. Though the wind damage could be catastrophic, I am hopeful based on geography and Maria's small vortex, surge will be limited.

 

[olafminesaw]

Roseau looks like it will sustain a direct hit. It's hard to imagine what it's going to feel like for those people expecting a possible category 3 as of this morning.

[Jim Martin]

[Windspeed]

If recon still goes in to punch the eyewall, I'm going to be a bit nervous. They don't normally punch an eye as it is making landfall and a mountain range is involved. Perhaps a 4700ft peak is safe for turbulance if they avoid SW eyewall or they will turn SE once in the eye.

[Crazy4Wx]

This may be a dumb question, but is there a reason why we don't launch a drone from the Hurricane Hunters inside the eye to provide real-time data?

[hawkeye_wx]

17 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Roseau looks like it will sustain a direct hit. It's hard to imagine what it's going to feel like for those people expecting a possible category 3 as of this morning.

Earlier this afternoon, a significant nw jog had me thinking the northern/northeastern coast was in the biggest trouble, and perhaps the capital in the sw would escape the worst, but an equally-big west jog has taken the eye right into the south half.

[Amped]

Recon not going to make it in time. Center looks onshore according to radar.

[clskinsfan]

Looks like we should have official landfall based on this radar.

http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles

[dan11295]

Yea, recon is not going to make it. I am guessing based on Sonde and the fact the pass was through the NW Quad, landfall intensity is probably 165 mph.

[Windspeed]

Recon not going to make it in time. Center looks onshore according to radar.

They're still inbound.

[Diego]

10 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said:

This may be a dumb question, but is there a reason why we don't launch a drone from the Hurricane Hunters inside the eye to provide real-time data?

Good question. Problem here is that narrow diameter of the eye-how to control it.

[Jim Marusak]

8 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said:

This may be a dumb question, but is there a reason why we don't launch a drone from the Hurricane Hunters inside the eye to provide real-time data?

have to admit, i'm not totally up on the latest in high end military drone tech. But i'm not sure we have a drone in our arsenal or in existence that can actually mechanically take the turbulent stresses that major hurricanes near mountains can deliver. if we do, it must be like an x-class experimental plane or something like that.

[medville]

As we watch the developments, I want to mention that many of us have family (US Citizens) who live in the USVI. They are as much of a concern as a mainland landfall. I know there are many weenies who are cheering every hurricane on to be bigger and stronger. I'm ok with an epically strong fish storm.... or if it took a substantial southerly jog for the evening then I may be ok with an epic build before a hard right around the ridge... As far as those Americans on St Thomas and Croix, etc, Maria is tomorrow.

drops $0.02. 

 

[hlcater]

Looking like the eye is already contracting due to land interaction with the mountains of Dominica. However, I'm not really surprised and expected this to happen since a pinhole eye is not stable, but can allow for more rapid intensification, which I mentioned this morning. I'll be interested to see what implications this has down the road. I would assume at the very least we will get a larger eye after this one is "replaced."