mappy Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I just woke up and didn't see it posted. You should read the thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Sat presentation looks to be improving rather steadily this morning. Pretty storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 For those interested, our very own @HurricaneJosh is in Southeast Puerto Rico for the chase. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: For those interested, our very own @HurricaneJosh is in Southeast Puerto Rico for the chase. Jim Edds is also there in San Juan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 At this point I am just hoping St. Croix misses the eyewall (and we get an ERC at the right time, as with an eye smaller than Irma an ERC may be a bit more likely) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coopdog Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, eyewall said: Jim Edds is also there in San Juan. How do you follow him? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Coopdog said: How do you follow him? Thanks Here: https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 The eyewall is now in view on the long range KJUA radar. https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JUA&loop=yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coopdog Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 22 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Here: https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms 22 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Here: https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms Thanks! Anyone follow this guy DaBuh on twitter? Evidently he hit Irma spot on and is now saying due to atmospheric changes that will occur perhaps fla is in play for Maria? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 PR's economy, which is already in a debt crisis, is going to be devastated by this. We will certainly see wobbles from her going forward, but the confidence that San Juan --a city with 400k people-- will see the RFQ is high and growing... I feel like I've been saying it a lot this season, but this looks like another worst case scneraio, combining the specifics of the intensity and track... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: PR's economy, which is already in a debt crisis, is going to be devastated by this. We will certainly see wobbles from her going forward, but the confidence that San Juan --a city with 400k people-- will see the RFQ is high and growing... More like 1+ million in the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Just now, JC-CT said: More like 1+ million in the metro. Yea. That's a good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: PR's economy, which is already in a debt crisis, is going to be devastated by this. We will certainly see wobbles from her going forward, but the confidence that San Juan --a city with 400k people-- will see the RFQ is high and growing... I feel like I've been saying it a lot this season, but this looks like another worst case scneraio, combining the specifics of the intensity and track... This entire hurricane season has been staggering in all honesty. Puerto Rico is one of our favorite places to vacation in the world. That it will now be hit by a major, in the same season, along with Southern Texas and Southern Florida is just unbelievable. And I agree with you that their economy can in no way handle what is about to happen to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TomAtkins Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 11 minutes ago, jbenedet said: PR's economy, which is already in a debt crisis, is going to be devastated by this. We will certainly see wobbles from her going forward, but the confidence that San Juan --a city with 400k people-- will see the RFQ is high and growing... San Juan's saving grace is that the storm will have to traverse quite a bit of land to get there. You saw what tiny Dominica did to the storm. PR will weaken it a good bit before it hits San Juan proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 10 minutes ago, TomAtkins said: San Juan's saving grace is that the storm will have to traverse quite a bit of land to get there. You saw what tiny Dominica did to the storm. PR will weaken it a good bit before it hits San Juan proper. Yes but a foot or more of rain combined with wind can make an awful mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 27 minutes ago, jbenedet said: PR's economy, which is already in a debt crisis, is going to be devastated by this. We will certainly see wobbles from her going forward, but the confidence that San Juan --a city with 400k people-- will see the RFQ is high and growing... I feel like I've been saying it a lot this season, but this looks like another worst case scneraio, combining the specifics of the intensity and track... Keep in mind that protection from cyclones is in fact one of the reasons that San Juan is located where it is. Particularly in the colonial era, protection from cyclones was critically important, so most Caribbean / SE Asia capitals are on the leeward side of their respective islands or otherwise protected from the usual cyclone track (the great exception is Santo Domingo, which is overdue for a big hit). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 20 minutes ago, TomAtkins said: San Juan's saving grace is that the storm will have to traverse quite a bit of land to get there. You saw what tiny Dominica did to the storm. PR will weaken it a good bit before it hits San Juan proper. The core will be bigger than when it hit Dominica, elevation also isn't as high so I don't think it'll lose that much steam. But Maria could still miss PR just to the east, so things can still change a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 12 minutes ago, TomAtkins said: San Juan's saving grace is that the storm will have to traverse quite a bit of land to get there. You saw what tiny Dominica did to the storm. PR will weaken it a good bit before it hits San Juan proper. What's quite a bit of land? 30 miles? I think it's a factor, but not nearly as much as you're indicating, considering geography alone. Taking the current NHC's track verbatim San Juan will see hurricane force winds before she even makes landfall. The eye wall would affect San Juan within an hour of LF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: Keep in mind that protection from cyclones is in fact one of the reasons that San Juan is located where it is. Particularly in the colonial era, protection from cyclones was critically important, so most Caribbean / SE Asia capitals are on the leeward side of their respective islands or otherwise protected from the usual cyclone track (the great exception is Santo Domingo, which is overdue for a big hit). Huh? San Juan is located on the Northeast corner of PR, and assuming that the latest guidance is correct, the Northern eyewall should pass right over that region without much prior movement over land. Remember that with the Northwest movement of Maria, San Juan and the rest of the North shore will get pounded by onshore winds rather than the down sloping winds off the South shore. It's close to a worse case scenario for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: What's quite a bit of land? 30 miles? I think it's a factor, but not nearly as much as you're indicating, considering geography alone. Taking the current NHC's track verbatim San Juan will see hurricane force winds before she even makes landfall. The eye wall would affect San Juan within an hour of LF. If the track of Maria had been on a more South to North track where the center had to pass over the entire width of PR before reaching San Juan that would be a different story. I've been to San Juan twice, it's right on the ocean and fully exposed to a Northwesterly track thanks to the onshore flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TomAtkins Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 I'm not saying it wont be bad. only that the devastation wont be as total as it was in Dominica, or places like Barbuda was for Irma. The difference in damage between say Cat 3 winds and Cat 5 is pretty substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 19 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: Keep in mind that protection from cyclones is in fact one of the reasons that San Juan is located where it is. Particularly in the colonial era, protection from cyclones was critically important, so most Caribbean / SE Asia capitals are on the leeward side of their respective islands or otherwise protected from the usual cyclone track (the great exception is Santo Domingo, which is overdue for a big hit). That's a good point. But what's the usual cyclone track? I see an approach heading due west or due north as ideal for San Juan. I could be wrong but the NHC's forecast track seems like a worst case scenario; if not damn close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Something that seems to be being understated is the impact to the USVI and BVI with the current forecast track. They got wrecked by Irma, and holy hell there are about to take it just as bad if not worse as they are going to be in the RFQ of Maria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Just now, TomAtkins said: I'm not saying it wont be bad. only that the devastation wont be as total as it was in Dominica, or places like Barbuda was for Irma. The difference in damage between say Cat 3 winds and Cat 5 is pretty substantial. Maria is expected to be at worst a very high end Cat 4 near PR. Not sure where you're getting CAT 3 from. A lot of the structures in PR are poorly built, especially once out of the downtown area. Even those buildings are not what you would expect in a typical US city. This hit on PR is particularly personal as it's one of my favorite vacation spots. A nice place called Isla Verde, about 20 miles to the East of San Juan is home to many ocean front resorts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Something that seems to be being understated is the impact to the USVI and BVI with the current forecast track. They got wrecked by Irma, and holy hell there are about to take it just as bad if not worse as they are going to be in the RFQ of Maria. Many of those areas were impacted by Jose as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Remember, the NHC track is on the southern edge of those hurricane model tracks. So far, Maria is almost spot on following the NHC's track, which has landfall on the southeastern coast of the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Maria is expected to be at worst a very high end Cat 4 near PR. Not sure where you're getting CAT 3 from. A lot of the structures in PR are poorly built, especially once out of the downtown area. Even those buildings are not what you would expect in a typical US city. This hit on PR is particularly personal as it's one of my favorite vacation spots. A nice place called Isla Verde, about 20 miles to the East of San Juan is home to many ocean front resorts. Agreed. Went on vacation there a few months ago. Resorts will be fine, but outside of that, I'm very concerned. Buildings quickly become less stable as you go inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Agreed. Went on vacation there a few months ago. Resorts will be fine, but outside of that, I'm very concerned. Buildings quickly become less stable as you go inland. The worry with the resorts is from storm surge. The structures themselves can probably handle 140kt winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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