Roger Smith Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 The radar reminds me of that emoticon with a head banging against a wall. What I said earlier is of course conjectural, a hurricane this small and intense encountering a hilly but not overly large island could have a variety of solutions. My thinking was that the northern eyewall would be draped over the middle of the island (the really high terrain is in the northwest quadrant) and the 150-200 mph winds would downslope through every river valley to the coast. As for storm surge potential, storm history is important but with this sudden vacuum created by a 30-mb pressure drop, and winds likely to come around to WSW 120 mph, I wouldn't downplay the potential. There was a 15-20 ft storm surge with the 1935 Keys hurricane which was also small and could not be said to be carrying along a long-term cat-5 storm surge either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Still inbound.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Looking like the eye is already contracting due to land interaction with the mountains of Dominica. However, I'm not really surprised and expected this to happen since a pinhole eye is not stable, but can allow for more rapid intensification, which I mentioned this morning. I'll be interested to see what implications this has down the road. I would assume at the very least we will get a larger eye after this one is "replaced." There is a TON of bath water left until hits Puerto Rico. I wonder if it will strengthen even more before then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Looking like the eye is already contracting due to land interaction with the mountains of Dominica. However, I'm not really surprised and expected this to happen since a pinhole eye is not stable, but can allow for more rapid intensification, which I mentioned this morning. I'll be interested to see what implications this has down the road. I would assume at the very least we will get a larger eye after this one is "replaced." Dominica is not very wide east/west. The eye should transit the island fairly quickly. Any frictional loss I would think would be regained in a short amount of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Goes 16 must have some sort of a delay cause the radar already has the center on land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Just now, Windspeed said: Still inbound.. The pressure gradient force is absolutely nuts in this. Recon is measuring 1003 mb only about 30-40 miles out from the eye which is at least 928mb. That's going to make for incredible wind speeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Just now, Amped said: Goes 16 must have some sort of a delay cause the radar already has the center on land. Could be stadium effect playing optical games with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Could be stadium effect playing optical games with you. Or the parallax effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Could be stadium effect playing optical games with you. I noticed this with Andrew, where the eyewall "ring" on radar actually looked like it fit inside the eye visible in infrared imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MazooWeather Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Recon is in the eyewall, anyone got the numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, wxmx said: Or the parallax effect Yeah that could be for sure....I did not even think about that. Cool, thanks for the reminder there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 https://tunein.com/radio/Wice-QFM-951-s89626/ live radio from Dominica None of this sounds good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 129kt FL was last report but I don't think they had punched eye yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 I think timestamps are a better explanation of the discrepancy. Goes 16 hasn't updated in over an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 8 minutes ago, wxmx said: Or the parallax effect Wow. Incredibly interesting. Thanks so much for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Just now, vinylfreak89 said: I think timestamps are a better explanation of the discrepancy. Goes 16 hasn't updated in over an hour Working fine here: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso2-13-48-0-100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 1 minute ago, vinylfreak89 said: I think timestamps are a better explanation of the discrepancy. Goes 16 hasn't updated in over an hour Maybe it depends on the site? I have it on Weather.cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 1 minute ago, vinylfreak89 said: I think timestamps are a better explanation of the discrepancy. Goes 16 hasn't updated in over an hour Not true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MazooWeather Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Is it just me reading this wrong, or did the recon miss the eye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Just now, Disc said: Working fine here: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso2-13-48-0-100 That image is from 30 minutes ago correct? This radar has the eye in the middle of the island right now: http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Recon only found 125 kt max at surface, but their flight path was certainly restricted by the fact the eye is half on land already. That is why they couldn't go back into the eye itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Is it just me reading this wrong, or did the recon miss the eye? Just now, dan11295 said: Recon only found 125 kt max at surface, but their flight path was certainly restricted by the fact the eye is half on land already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Recon missed the eye. 134FL/125SFMR and 936mb extrapolated, but outside the eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Just now, dan11295 said: Recon only found 125 kt max at surface, but their flight path was certainly restricted by the fact the eye is half on land already SFMR readings are all flagged as well. Land, high rain rate and shallow water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: That image is from 30 minutes ago correct? This radar has the eye in the middle of the island right now: http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles No, it's up to date. As wxmx pointed out above, it's likely due to the parallax effect. https://satelliteliaisonblog.com/2017/04/19/why-is-my-goes-16-imagery-displaced-parallax/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 The roof of the prime minister home of Dominica is gone according to the local radio station on Dominica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Sw eyewall 144 mph http://aircraft.myfoxhurricane.com/recon/recon.cgi?aircraft_page=AF303&product_page=hdob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coopdog Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Maybe it depends on the site? I have it on Weather.cod Real life perspective for people of Dominica. I will use fla as example, understanding it will never likely happen. 27 hrs ago Maria was a TS, people in fla would brush it off. now 27-30 hrs later you have a cat 5 barreling down on you that is full speed ahead vs a slowing cat 5 when it hits lands. this would create mass chaos in fla. Imagine how many people would be unable to evacuate. in Dominica that is what happened today with much less supplies, support . This is going to be catastrophic and just as bad as st Maarten if not worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Much larger eyewall forming. Looks like air is traveling around the island to avoid the terrain. This eye may try to contract when it gets to the other side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 The landfall scan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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