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stormtracker

Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 2:49Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302 
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 29
Observation Number: 04 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 10th day of the month at 2:36:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°26'N 81°03'W (23.4333N 81.05W)
B. Center Fix Location: 87 statute miles (139 km) to the ENE (75°) from Havana, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,506m (8,222ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 96kts (~ 110.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NW (313°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 43° at 106kts (From the NE at ~ 122.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NW (316°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 932mb (27.53 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 106kts (~ 122.0mph) which was observed 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NW (316°) from the flight level center at 2:32:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 250° at 6kts (From the WSW at 7mph)

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Running left of guidance again at 0z.  Closest to the "NVGI" (Which makes landfall S. of Talahassee and passes just west).

 

edit: center fix posted just above is about 3mi south of where I have Irma.

 

earth0z.jpg

 

earth0z2.jpg

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Just now, Chicago Storm said:

Eye is clearing and growing as the IEW erodes...

b29dd307ee791ff7c92d0305e477cd04.jpg

This could really take off overnight and this time there is nothing in its way until landfall to stop intensification outside of a ERC

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Just now, OUGrad05 said:

Winds are still quite low, recon picking up surface winds of less than 95kts near the core.

They picked up 100kt in SE quad and haven't sampled the NE quad yet. Winds have definitely increased. 

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2 minutes ago, ALhurricane said:

They picked up 100kt in SE quad and haven't sampled the NE quad yet. Winds have definitely increased. 

Yeah I saw that, it updated about 30 seconds after I posted, didn't realize I was that close to getting an update, but still 100kts is low given the CP, the gradient is still fairly tight, I suspect its just the inner core reorganizing.  Which the last few frames have really shown some significant improvement. 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not sure I would disagree.

It isn't that far from cat 4 and is strengthening. I would be surprised if it doesn't make cat 4.

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3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Uh... New NHC Forecast never has it getting to Cat 4 now. Their being WAY too conservative. 

NHC even says they are being conservative. We all know how these things go...if she gets a solid eye wall..she will bomb out, just like she did I approach to

Cuba. If she doesn't she will be steady state.

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I have a question, and I'm sorry if this is really dumb.


I realize there's a double wind max, and this inner and outer eye wall going on -- but, what stops first wind max from reaching 140-145, and containing itself inside the other outer wind max? No need to ELI5, I've been researching and reading every single post about hurricanes that I could possibly find for the last 12 years, but, that is something that I truly do not understand. I'd really love for someone to explain, if they could. 

It's a few things, all physics based. But the easiest explanation (which is still correct), is that the pressure gradient force (pgf) is distributed over a larger area. PGF is the force that 'pushes' air particles from areas of higher pressure to areas of lower pressure. So what happens is this.. When the eye wall is the most intense.. It pushes these particles over a smaller area. The eye is constantly able to clear out these air particles (due to the fact that heat rises, while also the fact that the Correalis effect coerces the air particles to spin, thus the eye wall). However, when the outer eyewall develops, this force is distributed over a larger area.

Its using the equation f=m(a). The force remains the same, and the mass of the air particles increase, therefore, the acceleration (wind speed) must decrease. Think of this.. Take a windy day and go stand in between two large buildings. When you are standing in between these buildings, the wind speed feels higher. This is because the same amount of air particles are now being funneled into a smaller space. The pressure must increase and therefore the wind speed accelerates. This is the same effect. Standing in between the buildings is when there is one eyewall. Standing not in between the buildings as the secondary eye walls.
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4 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said:

NHC even says they are being conservative. We all know how these things go...if she gets a solid eye wall..she will bomb out. If she doesn't she will be steady state.

The NHC says they are conservatively LOWERING the wind to 105 kts, suggesting they may need to lower it further depending on what the new recon plane finds.

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The 11 pm NHC forecast is what it is.  The factors favorable for strengthening have been laid out well in this thread, as well as a reason or two why it may not strengthen so quickly.  No point in having a bunch of one liners directed at the NHC.  Now we wait.

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