Bostonseminole Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Hotair said: HillsdaleMIWeather I want to believe Irma has started W/NW but I just don't see it in the IR images i have. Its been over half hour now and all i see is W motion and even jogs W/SW. Are you still seeing it gaining latitude? i don't see it moving west, looks almost stalled last 30 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 There is a homeless guy sleeping on the ground in front of Sloppy Joes on the Duval Street cam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, williamGD said: Any good news is good. I understand the people who live in other states want to see this a Cat 5 cause they're not in the any of it but us here in Sarasota want a life after it is over. Yes this is just a blip down to 120 and could jump to 150 in 12 hours and track right over us still. But any good news is just that good news and right now ill take any good i can get. For 2 days now us here on the west voast have seen nothing good from this storm. I wouldn't mind seeing this storm vaporize for sure but obviously that isn't going to happen. What is most frustrating for forecasters right now and somewhat maddening is when the turn is truly going to begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Marathon is ~84 miles away from the center of the eye, yet they are sustained at 51mph and gusting to just under hurricane force (71mph at 7:45pm EDT). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Impressive that Irma has managed to keep a pressure in the 930s today while still dealing with impacts from Cuba. As stated above the winds will take a while to react back upwards, and they'll likely do so suddenly (at least when you look at the pass to pass recon data). However, I don't think we're going to see that until we can get some decent convection over most quads. In reality, it doesn't really matter in terms of the storm surge potential - that is locked in as a devastating event similar to Ike thanks to the very large wind field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Were the models predicting Irma to move this slowly? Does it going only 7-8 mph bear any concern, or is it just a blip? (I'm sure this slow crawl is reminding folks of Harvey, lol). Any chance of it getting "trapped" like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, eyewall said: I wouldn't mind seeing this storm vaporize for sure but obviously that isn't going to happen. What is most frustrating for forecasters right now and somewhat maddening is when the turn is truly going to begin. Is there any potential change in track from this sort of unexpected slowdown and lack of turn? Upper level players that might get closer/farther away that might change the forecasted path any? The near-stall of late seems to be a bit of a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
williamGD Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hotair said: HillsdaleMIWeather I want to believe Irma has started W/NW but I just don't see it in the IR images i have. Its been over half hour now and all i see is W motion and even jogs W/SW. Are you still seeing it gaining latitude? I think the more west it goes the better for us here in Sarasota tampa. At some point something has to give with the track. Not even talking the 150 anymore cause the people on here that do not live in florida want to see it hit Cat 5 again to see what it can do. But if it keeps going west something has to give with the track not even talking speed anymore but track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, williamGD said: Any good news is good. I understand the people who live in other states want to see this a Cat 5 cause they're not in the any of it but us here in Sarasota want a life after it is over. Yes this is just a blip down to 120 and could jump to 150 in 12 hours and track right over us still. But any good news is just that good news and right now ill take any good i can get. For 2 days now us here on the west voast have seen nothing good from this storm. You need to understand that this is a catch 22. Irma may not have the higher winds at the moment, but the pressure remains very low. In all likelihood, we're going to see those winds respond upwards in a hurry over the next 18 hours. I'm really afraid that any last minute evacs that may take place are going to second-guess themselves. Irma will likely be strengthening up until landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Since 0000UTC it seems to have gained just a few km of latitude. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-1-100 Maybe a stall is happening to prelude a turn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoricuaMD Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 From someone who lives in Miami (near Miami Beach), just want to give an on the ground report. I've been here over 30 years. There are bursts of wind, but it's weak tropical storm stuff at this point. I literally have CNN running around in front of my building currently filming all day, trying to catch a wind burst. I took a risk staying, but I chose my home for a reason. However CNN is still going for ratings and petrifying the Latino population and their families. Miami is safe, even a Category 2 doesn't phase us. May sound odd to non-Tropical folks but we realize there will be damage, but it's nothing compared to Andrew or what these storms do to our native countries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, salbers said: Since 0000UTC it seems to have gained just a few km of latitude. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-1-100 Maybe a stall is happening to prelude a turn? Was watching WFOR-TV's stream not too long ago and the meteorologist was worried that this apparent stall is the beginning of the turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 As of 21Z Irma's IKE is at 78 TJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Yes, the short term motion from 0000UTC to 0015UTC actually looks mostly northward on the IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 33 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It'll have to start north pretty soon to really make landfall and go into the FL Peninsula. At this rate it might go over or even west of Key West. From there, even due north wouldn't make it east of Tampa Bay. Would have to average about 325 degrees starting now to hit Key west. Right now it's moving about 280, so it has to make a pretty decent turn at some point soon. It's pretty much due South of the center of Lake Okeechobee right now so it's still a hundred or so miles east of Tampa Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, salbers said: Since 0000UTC it seems to have gained just a few km of latitude. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-1-100 Maybe a stall is happening to prelude a turn? 0000UTC was 20 minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 These stall questions are good. I would guess what is going on in the atmosphere to the north is changing every hour. So now that Irma has basically stalled for a couple of hours I wonder how that affects the track? The stall was not predicted, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 0000 UTC - 0020 UTC satellite motion looks to the NNW. A slightly longer animation suggests the turn happening at 0000 UTC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: These stall questions are good. I would guess what is going on in the atmosphere to the north is changing every hour. So now that Irma has basically stalled for a couple of hours I wonder how that affects the track? The stall was not predicted, correct? When a hurricane begins to turn, it slows down as the steering in one direction lessens and the steering in a new one takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Worried? why would he be worried? it is suppose to happen so what reason would there be to be worried? meteorologist must not be up to date on this that this is suppose to happen begin the turn if that is the case.Depends on how sharp that turn is, could put further east Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
williamGD Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: Depends on how sharp that turn is, could put further east Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The best track for florida if it has to hit the state would be right up the middle of the state. Yes the east coast would get more of it and the west would still but the best landfall is it doing it asap and be over land again asap. But it is all a guess till we see it happen i would guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, williamGD said: The best track for florida if it has to hit the state would be right up the middle of the state. Yes the east coast would get more of it and the west would still but the best landfall is it doing it asap and be over land again asap. But it is all a guess till we see it happen i would guess. I highly doubt the middle of the peninsula track is happening at this point, it's practically due south of the peninsula now. It would have to make an almost 90 degree turn. NNW is much more likely and that's bad for the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 The stall in this case is a function of steering currents becoming more subtle. In my opinion the culprit is the WAR losing its overwhelming influence on Irma, as it retrogrades east. Going forward I believe this will mark the beginning of a predominately northern component to her movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 this wind shear map shows "unfavorable" wind shear for TC formation off of West Coast Florida Wouldn't that also tame winds from Irma as it crosses into that region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 (reporter on Key West) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Still holding NNW movement (330 bearing) up until 0034 UTC, as seen with 1-minute satellite data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 From looking at Irma's circulation from another perspective, I suspect that the hurricane may need to reach 23.5°N latitude before its winds strengthen. It appears that the turn north is in its early stages. Finally, I remain concerned that the ECMWF's 24-hour error of around 25 miles suggests a risk that Irma could pass to the west of Tampa bringing about a large storm surge along with severe winds and heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 26 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: i don't see it moving west, looks almost stalled last 30 minutes That's what I see. She may be preparing to turn starboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Hotair said: this wind shear map shows "unfavorable" wind shear for TC formation off of West Coast Florida Wouldn't that also tame winds from Irma as it crosses into that region? We have the better part of an entire day before shear stops the re-intensification potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, salbers said: Still holding NNW movement up until 0034 UTC. That cod goes 16 map is skewed, it's more of a NW motion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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