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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85
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Regarding the pressure progs, has there ever been a sub 900mb low in that part of the Atlantic? Certainly in the GOM and western Caribbean, but up there? Can anyone think what the lowest pressure in that part of the basin is? The signal for an anomalously intense hurricane is certainly unanimous, and the available heat and low shear supports the modeling, but they often overdo deepening. The GFS apparently has some issue with PWATs that feeds into it. Maybe adjust any GFS pressure up by 20-30mb?

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Given the consistency of these low pressures, the environment around the Bahamas then must be just about perfect for explosive deepening. A Cat 5 moving nearby has to at least be on the table. 

At this point, I'm feeling fairly confident we see a Cat 5, or at least very close to it. Nearly every model I've looked at gets AOB 930mb, which makes sense because the environment is nearly perfect. Do I buy the sub 900mb pressures? No, I don't. It is pretty difficult to get sub 900mb storms and given that the only model that goes that deep is the GFS, which has been busting low on pressures for the past few months.

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1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

The media is going to go insane with this during the upcoming week if these low central pressures come about.  A hurricane with winds gusting to 190 - 200+ MPH threatening Florida and the SE coast.  Just imagine...

I think the pressures could be 50Mb higher and the media will still be going insane very soon if nothing changes on the models.

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