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NJwx85

Major Hurricane Irma

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Will start prepping for 'Irma' on Tuesday. GFS/ECMWF looked well enough in 'synch' for me---for significant winds on Sunday (850mb vort/wind fields) around here (northeastern Collier County FL). Still plenty of time to batten down the hatches___and then wait for its big northward turn! That turn is what concerns me the most.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Everyone is obviously free to do what they wish, but there's still some chance for this to go far enough east of Florida to reduce impacts.  I would absolutely fill up the tank and start stocking up on supplies as soon as possible though, as it appears that there's already a run on that stuff.

There should probably be a local impacts/evacuation thread.  Depends on the situation, my mom, who lives directly on the water on a barrier island had no commitments in FL so she just decided to take a vacation to visit and get away regardless.

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Product: Bathythermal Data (SOFX01 KWBC)
Date Profile Data was Processed: September 4th, 2017 at 23:54:36Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) 
Storm Number: 11L in 2017 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
AXBT Buoy Drop (Airborne eXpendable Bathythermograph)

Profile Date: September 4th, 2017
Profile Time: 23:48:46Z

Profile Coordinates: 17.646N 53.454W 
Profile Location: 516 statute miles (830 km) to the NE (53°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

AXBT Channel: 16

Sea Surface Temperature: 28.20°C (82.8°F)
Depth of 26°C Isotherm: 120 m (394 ft)
Deepest Depth of AXBT: 337.5 m (1,107 ft)
 

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34 minutes ago, psv88 said:

My family and my wife's family in south Florida are asking my opinion. I don't know what to say. I've been a hobbyist for 20 years and on these boards for 10 years. People are panicking down there. Flights and hotel rooms are limited. It's a really tough call right now. I'm telling them all not to panic and to make decisions tomorrow night, but I'm really not sure what to say. This storm really scares me.

I haven't fully caught up with the thread so my apologies if this has been posted already but it costs nothing to book a hotel room. My advice to anyone who's uncertain is do that now so you have it. Just cancel if you don't end up needing it.

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My sis-in-law lives in Fort Pierce and booked a hotel in Jacksonville fwiw. Saidvrates already had doubled.

My family flooded/was hit by Harvey last week, now this. At this rate TMI will blow for the trifecta.  

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Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

That would really maximize Irma's potential with limited land interaction and water temps in the upper 80s

Exactly what I was about to say... most tracks aside from the UK stay north enough of the islands to likely not be overly detremental to the circulation. 

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35 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

What part of South Florida? I have family in Boynton Beach. I told them to get out. They are flying up here on Friday. They were coming up here for a wedding anyway.

My parents are in Boynton Beach as well. Far enough inland to avoid any surge/floods. Biggest worry for them will be loss of power. I am trying to see if I can get down there before it hits.

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Just now, jojo762 said:

Exactly what I was about to say... most tracks aside from the UK stay north enough of the islands to likely not be overly detremental to the circulation. 

That's pretty much a worse case scenario track given what it has access to. Even if it came into FL from the south that would still place vulnerable areas like Miami in right front quadrant unless it did what Matthew did and had the eye and most intense part of eyewall off shore

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13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

11L_tracks_latest.thumb.png.86a509256e85be7bf8495f6ea65388a9.png.a431d087dedde463075e09413ec81d01.png

Notice this is further North from Cuba than the 18z. More trends like this could mean FL gets missed completely and anywhere from GA to Maine gets hit with her full might.  

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2 minutes ago, Griizzcoat said:

Does those include the new data packages??

18z includes the special soundings and any data collected before 18z.

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3 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Notice this is further North from Cuba than the 18z. More trends like this could mean FL gets missed completely and anywhere from GA to Maine gets hit with her full might.  

It tightened from 18z... some northern tracks came south and southern tracks came north.  Here is 18z for comparison

11L_tracks_18z.thumb.png.e7c6e4ff8e41199a3cfe3651db36a378.png

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It tightened from 18z... some northern tracks came south and southern tracks came north.  Here is 18z for comparison

11L_tracks_18z.thumb.png.e7c6e4ff8e41199a3cfe3651db36a378.png

Which tracks at hour 120 came south? 

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9 minutes ago, JasonOH said:

18z includes the special soundings and any data collected before 18z.

Don't think that's accurate as the data was actually collected after 18z.   It's the 00z runs that will contain the aforementioned data.     

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2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

I can't decide which coast of FL Irma goes up would be more catastrophic than the other. Both very popular, surge prone areas.

West Coast is far more surge prone but less population till you get up to Naples/Ft. Meyers north to Cedar Key. Pick your poison.

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1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said:

I can't decide which coast of FL Irma goes up would be more catastrophic than the other. Both very popular, surge prone areas.

Eye wall riding just inside E Coast for the length of the peninsula, from Miami to Savannah, would be pretty catastrophic.

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Just now, ncforecaster89 said:

Don't think that's accurate as the data was actually collected after 18z.   It's the 00z runs that will contain the achievement data.   

If it's 18z it's launched about 1hour before, and the data would be integrated in like any 0/12z sounding, but with the 18z models.  For the data to be in 18z models it had to be from before 18z

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3 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

I can't decide which coast of FL Irma goes up would be more catastrophic than the other. Both very popular, surge prone areas.

I'd suggest a track hugging the Fl east coast, whereby it retains MH intensity and making a direct landfall in the Carolina's.     

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3 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Don't think that's accurate as the data was actually collected after 18z.   It's the 00z runs that will contain the aforementioned data.     

AVNI is the 18Z GFS and TVCN contains an 18Z GFS weighting so at least those 2 tracks should contain the 18Z RAOBS.

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With Irma having tracked generally west-southwestward for much of the day before turning to the west, it has reached a position with a much greater climatological risk of landfall. Since 1851, 32 hurricanes have passed within 100 miles of Irma's 8 pm position of 16.7°N 55.0°W. 13/32 or 41% made U.S. landfall and 7 of the 13 (54%) storms that made landfall made their first landfall in Florida. The majority of such hurricanes were major hurricanes at U.S. landfall. The following details follow from the above sample:

Classification of Hurricanes at First U.S. Landfall:
Category 1: 8%
Category 2: 15%
Category 3: 31%
Category 4: 46%

First U.S. Landfall at Florida:
Hurricane #4 (1871): Category 3
1926 “Great Miami Hurricane:” Category 4
1928 “Lake Okeechobee Hurricane:” Category 4
Hurricane #4 (1947): Category 4
Donna (1960): Category 4
Inez (1966): Category 1
Georges (1998): Category 2

Considering a blend of the climatology associated with hurricanes passing in the vicinity where Irma has tracked and the ensembles/operational guidance, my thinking is that U.S. landfall is now a 75% probability. The area of greatest risk has shifted south to Florida with the wider Florida-North Carolina region at highest risk. Small possibilities exist for Irma to enter the Gulf of Mexico and then track to Alabama or westward or for Irma to head for the Virginia-New England area based largely on climatology. 
 

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