stormtracker Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ian said: The NAM is acceptable if it shows good snow. It is? Because people were posting maps of total qpf before when it sucked and it was fine. Quick bits about the NAM beyond 48 is fine, bad or good. In depth going off the rails when it's crappy vs every other model..eh..naso much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: It is? Because people were posting maps of total qpf before when it sucked and it was fine. Just in general. NAM is ok if it has snow. Nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Ian said: Just in general. NAM is ok if it has snow. Nothing more. If it's line with everything else, I agree. When it's the only one out of 6000 models that's the opposite....I mean, you have to agree with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 thank god it's 10:40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Stop trying to figure out the NAM. Lol. But part of the problem is the primary in Ohio. In effect since that's closer and still the dominant feature at that time the low is to our northwest. But it's coming around each run. I bet by tomorrow it's in line. oh I'm not. I just look for one thing to prove how poor it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I know from skiing up in Vermont that there can be some blowover effect where the winds carry the snow from upslope enhancement over the other side of the ridge. Stowe is actually on the lee side but due to this effect they get dumped. But it tapers off quick as you head down such that if the ski resort is getting a 20" dump from upside the town only 3 miles away in the valley might only get a couple inches. Plus those mountains are 4000 feet and at a perfect alignment to get upslope off lake Champlain. So the effect there is extreme. In general you want to be on the windward side of the slope to get help from upslope Makes sense -- and I know on a large scale that being on the leeward side you end up with a precip shadow/desert (eg Sierras). My situation is much smaller scale -- and it's not a gradual rise across several ridges either....it's basically a pretty sharp rise from 600ft to 1600ft over a mile or so, then drops back to 400ft within 3 miles. I'm on a lower ridge at 800ft about 1.5 miles west of the higher ridge. I never really thought it was a prominent enough feature to make a difference, which is why it really got my attention when that map showed the little stripe of higher accum along the ridge area. That got me curious about the potential effect on the micro climate when you have a nor'easter slinging moisture at the ridge.....I guess the effect is enough to maybe pick up an extra inch or two.....I just can't tell from the map precisely how wide the enhanced precip band is. Prolly nitpicky and weather-geeky, but I like learning as much as I can even about the smaller weather phenomena. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Posting this here as to not ruin GFS talk. But the 4K NAM snowmap is filthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just hope it is still snowing when OPM has to make the call Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, mappy said: Posting this here as to not ruin GFS talk. But the 4K NAM snowmap is filthy. 10:1?? Come on, you're better than that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Well..well..well. Mother nature humbles me again. Give me a lawn chair, a couple natural lights, my neighbors delicious special brownies and some bacon and I'll be good Monday night. I'll be buried in snow waiting for thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I play it safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: You're going to have to go around me because I already have the RPM face down on the bed... i got home from dinner with the family and needed a walk to help with digestion, and a whiskey to relieve anxiety, and then played catch up on the threads. This is classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Dang, some of you take snow very seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 RPM ftw!!! haha. Joking of course. Some peeps got discourage last night after the Euro run. Hope they are feeling better. I know I am. If it does play out like the current run of the GFS I like where I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Wow. Not cheap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 13 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Just hope it is still snowing when OPM has to make the call Tuesday morning. You and me both brotha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 How I feel about the 0z GFS... and some posters are represented by the lady in yellow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I never want to think IMBY, but man, I'd take HALF of what the 00Z GFS is smoking for northern AA County. Wowzers.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Why does this feel like the night before 3/6/13 in the back of my head... heh mostly joking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I swear... If this falls apart... It will be a meltdown for the ages. It will go down as one of the most brutal fails in my 10+ year history on this site/Eastern. I'm elated and terrified... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 For those who care, wbell's weekend update is finally public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 29 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You and me both brotha Are we sure the new admin has found someone to make the snow call at OPM? The office might be dark with the lights out for all we know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Canada sends its love. Heart shape QPF off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 If this guidance verifies it will be one of the biggest snow falls for March in many places. Definitely HECS. atleast for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 21 minutes ago, snjókoma said: Why does this feel like the night before 3/6/13 in the back of my head... heh mostly joking. completely different set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, mdhokie said: Are we sure the new admin has found someone to make the snow call at OPM? The office might be dark with the lights out for all we know. Tis true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, PDIII said: completely different set up. I know, its really much better especially with temps. But for some reason I don't like when models ramp up the precip and snow amounts right before the storm... it happened 1/22 too and we got dryslotted, although I will never complain about 2'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I haven't always been a fan of Weather Channel storm names for snow, but I like the name Stella. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, PDIII said: If this guidance verifies it will be one of the biggest snow falls for March in many places. Definitely HECS. atleast for the cities. What is most crazy is that it comes at the end of a relatively snowless winter. There isn't much to really rival it in the records. Maybe 1942 ? Baltimore had 4.1" through the end of February before picking up 22.2" in March that year. i don't really see any other comps in the Mid-Atlantic. Historic indeed if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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