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March Banter Thread


North Balti Zen

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14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

There is no problem. One person complained about literally nothing, and for no reason, and then continued to dig the hole. I haven't been in banter since yesterday, but hopefully he stopped digging and moved on from his self created mini debacle.

Some of the epic meltdowns this year have been fun. I've gotten a kick out of them honestly. 

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

You ain't lying. Been some quality melts recently. Unfortunately, they're not the type that requires me to break out the shovel. 

Speaking of, you have a winter soul that needs reapin'?

Nah, I'm good for now. Nothing that drinking a six pack of fortification before each model run cycle can't handle. I'll get back to you though if I run out of beer. :D

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

You ain't lying. Been some quality melts recently. Unfortunately, they're not the type that requires me to break out the shovel. 

Speaking of, you have a winter soul that needs reapin'?

desperate to bury some bodies, are you? 

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

For three months now? You might need help. :lol:  

The sooner y'all give up on winter the sooner we can move on to spring! Sun, shorts, and sundresses!

Remember, I'm only burying the winter soul. Admit it. You're ready to spring ahead :) 

giphy.gif

so, I gave up on winter forever ago, but it didn't kill me. nor was i looking to jump. i just shrugged and moved on. 

I'm not dead though. But yeah, winter is over lol 

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12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Remember when I said you were the best? Strike it from your memory--you're the worst :P 

But hey, if I can travel to PWM and ascend to heaven during a snowstorm then I guess you can flatline on winter and reside somewhere between the living (who still track) and the dead (who affirmatively melted or jumped). You and Subtropics, defying the laws of nature. 

You still love me. I am still following LR thread, and if something pops up, I will be the first to start the thread (if worthy). I'm just not holding my breath either. So... not sure what category to put me in. 

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9 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

I just hid the folks who keep wanting to point fingers.  I'm not here to try to cause trouble.

You saw responses because the people who do such damn fine work in the long range thread, who you insulted yesterday, were still referencing it and a few of us wanted them to know that we appreciate their work. But, by all means, continue being weird about what you did.

 

*Typed in confidence that you won't see this as I would presumably be hidden.

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4 hours ago, mappy said:

so, I gave up on winter forever ago, but it didn't kill me. nor was i looking to jump. i just shrugged and moved on. 

I'm not dead though. But yeah, winter is over lol 

I kind of did the same, but one random day I looked up from my phone and saw the business end of a scythe heading towards my neck. I guess I didn't move fast enough. :(

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Ok so I had some time to kill waiting for a meeting today and watched a JB video from the other day and he said something that really to me ended any debate in my mind on whether he is just hyping and biased or flat out lying to people in his forecasts.  Since I don't like to attack someone's integrity lightly or without evidence I decided to lay out the 4 things, debate style,  that to me prove he is lying not simply biased.  I am very curious on your thoughts and if anyone wants to try to refute please go ahead. 

1. He made an initial winter forecast way back in late summer/early fall.  Then he continued to update it but even though the state of certain pattern drivers were changing (QBO phase change fail, Pacific warm pool flip to name 2 big ones) he would simply find OTHER reasons to keep his forecast mostly the same.  That seems very odd and totally against any kind of scientific method with integrity.  "Backwards" forecasting so to speak where you make the forecast you want then find reasons to justify it.  That alone could be his bias but it has to be taken with....

2. He continued to lie and spin what he actually said so that his forecast could still verity without him having to change it.  For instance in the fall he forecasted a front loaded winter with a fast start, I think "December to remember" was his saying.  Then when December fell apart it became "cold will hit and hold in January."  Then it became "January thaw but an American Pie February coming" which of course was combined with "As I always said it will be a back loaded winter".  Then, no joke this almost sounds to crazy to be legit, but he said when early February started to fall apart, as I always thought late February and March will be rocking".  He finally started to give up the ghost only when he had absolutely not choice in the last couple weeks.  Its amazing, almost like someone else right now of his same political leaning, that he thinks he can change what he said when its all posted online for everyone to see word for word.  The first factor could be bias but this to me seems more like lies....but then there is

3. His partner at wealtherbell, Joe D, pointed out way back in early December how Winters with a west qbo and cold or cold neutral enso tend to favor an extremely positive NAO and a western Canada trough and eastern CONUS ridge.  The maps he posted turned out to be dead on for the winter.  They work together yet at that exact time JB had a winter forecast that was almost the exact opposite of what his partner was showing was likely based on the analogs, even though they work together and look at the same analogs.  Which leads to...

4.  As recently as 1-2 weeks ago JB was still hyping a cold ending in March in some form or other.  Then yesterday in his video when he finally admitted defeat on even that front (best news yet if we want cold and snow in March) he cited analogs that show the north Pacific cold pool and the warm SST off South America and in the Gulf and a strong correlation to a warm March.  But 2 weeks ago when he was citing his cold March idea he was talking about those same factors as reasons it would get cold, and now he is using them as excuses why it wont.  Ironically I agree with most of his "excuses" for why he busted only i don't believe he was oblivious to them. 

In summary I think he simply makes the forecast that will sell most then manipulates his way through the season and if it verifies somehow great, and if its even close by pure luck, he spins his way to make it better then it was.  2015 was like that where the locations of the cold and snow weren't even centered where he had it, and the reasons for the cold were totally different then the ones he used to justify his cold snowy forecast, yet he claimed total victory when the ground truth was somewhat close to his forecast even though the pattern was NOTHING like it.  And then in years like this he simply gives the excuses why he busted and moves on.  But I do not think there is ANY doubt anymore that this is simply bias.  He knows exactly what he is doing and its not bias or spin, its LIES. 

Thoughts?

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok so I had some time to kill waiting for a meeting today and watched a JB video from the other day and he said something that really to me ended any debate in my mind on whether he is just hyping and biased or flat out lying to people in his forecasts.  Since I don't like to attack someone's integrity lightly or without evidence I decided to lay out the 4 things, debate style,  that to me prove he is lying not simply biased.  I am very curious on your thoughts and if anyone wants to try to refute please go ahead. 

1. He made an initial winter forecast way back in late summer/early fall.  Then he continued to update it but even though the state of certain pattern drivers were changing (QBO phase change fail, Pacific warm pool flip to name 2 big ones) he would simply find OTHER reasons to keep his forecast mostly the same.  That seems very odd and totally against any kind of scientific method with integrity.  "Backwards" forecasting so to speak where you make the forecast you want then find reasons to justify it.  That alone could be his bias but it has to be taken with....

2. He continued to lie and spin what he actually said so that his forecast could still verity without him having to change it.  For instance in the fall he forecasted a front loaded winter with a fast start, I think "December to remember" was his saying.  Then when December fell apart it became "cold will hit and hold in January."  Then it became "January thaw but an American Pie February coming" which of course was combined with "As I always said it will be a back loaded winter".  Then, no joke this almost sounds to crazy to be legit, but he said when early February started to fall apart, as I always thought late February and March will be rocking".  He finally started to give up the ghost only when he had absolutely not choice in the last couple weeks.  Its amazing, almost like someone else right now of his same political leaning, that he thinks he can change what he said when its all posted online for everyone to see word for word.  The first factor could be bias but this to me seems more like lies....but then there is

3. His partner at wealtherbell, Joe D, pointed out way back in early December how Winters with a west qbo and cold or cold neutral enso tend to favor an extremely positive NAO and a western Canada trough and eastern CONUS ridge.  The maps he posted turned out to be dead on for the winter.  They work together yet at that exact time JB had a winter forecast that was almost the exact opposite of what his partner was showing was likely based on the analogs, even though they work together and look at the same analogs.  Which leads to...

4.  As recently as 1-2 weeks ago JB was still hyping a cold ending in March in some form or other.  Then yesterday in his video when he finally admitted defeat on even that front (best news yet if we want cold and snow in March) he cited analogs that show the north Pacific cold pool and the warm SST off South America and in the Gulf and a strong correlation to a warm March.  But 2 weeks ago when he was citing his cold March idea he was talking about those same factors as reasons it would get cold, and now he is using them as excuses why it wont.  Ironically I agree with most of his "excuses" for why he busted only i don't believe he was oblivious to them. 

In summary I think he simply makes the forecast that will sell most then manipulates his way through the season and if it verifies somehow great, and if its even close by pure luck, he spins his way to make it better then it was.  2015 was like that where the locations of the cold and snow weren't even centered where he had it, and the reasons for the cold were totally different then the ones he used to justify his cold snowy forecast, yet he claimed total victory when the ground truth was somewhat close to his forecast even though the pattern was NOTHING like it.  And then in years like this he simply gives the excuses why he busted and moves on.  But I do not think there is ANY doubt anymore that this is simply bias.  He knows exactly what he is doing and its not bias or spin, its LIES. 

Thoughts?

American Greed.  

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It's pretty simple, PSU. Weenies like us are the ones to blame. Not JB. He has a moral obligation to us to keep hope alive when it's hopeless. To satisfy our demands for cold snowy forecasts. I'm sure it's painful for him to do this. But he's sacrificing his scientific morals and ethics for us. 

You and me and a host of other enthusiests do the same thing in the long range thread. Not exactly the same way of course. But we keep hope alive when hope itself took a 45 caliber bullet between the eyes 3 months ago. We're still discussing cold and snow on 384 hour op panels right now when we both know that we have a better chance at getting sunburn and running the AC than we do getting a warning level snow storm. But we sacrifice our true take on the state of things just like JB does in a much grander fashion to a much larger audience. Sucks we don't get paid for it though. JB has an effen sweet gig. If you and me keep at it long enough we may get paid for it too. 

18z gfs was sweet though wasn't it? Time to tune up the shovels. Palm Sunday looks rockin on the CFS. 

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4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok so I had some time to kill waiting for a meeting today and watched a JB video from the other day and he said something that really to me ended any debate in my mind on whether he is just hyping and biased or flat out lying to people in his forecasts.  Since I don't like to attack someone's integrity lightly or without evidence I decided to lay out the 4 things, debate style,  that to me prove he is lying not simply biased.  I am very curious on your thoughts and if anyone wants to try to refute please go ahead. 

1. He made an initial winter forecast way back in late summer/early fall.  Then he continued to update it but even though the state of certain pattern drivers were changing (QBO phase change fail, Pacific warm pool flip to name 2 big ones) he would simply find OTHER reasons to keep his forecast mostly the same.  That seems very odd and totally against any kind of scientific method with integrity.  "Backwards" forecasting so to speak where you make the forecast you want then find reasons to justify it.  That alone could be his bias but it has to be taken with....

2. He continued to lie and spin what he actually said so that his forecast could still verity without him having to change it.  For instance in the fall he forecasted a front loaded winter with a fast start, I think "December to remember" was his saying.  Then when December fell apart it became "cold will hit and hold in January."  Then it became "January thaw but an American Pie February coming" which of course was combined with "As I always said it will be a back loaded winter".  Then, no joke this almost sounds to crazy to be legit, but he said when early February started to fall apart, as I always thought late February and March will be rocking".  He finally started to give up the ghost only when he had absolutely not choice in the last couple weeks.  Its amazing, almost like someone else right now of his same political leaning, that he thinks he can change what he said when its all posted online for everyone to see word for word.  The first factor could be bias but this to me seems more like lies....but then there is

3. His partner at wealtherbell, Joe D, pointed out way back in early December how Winters with a west qbo and cold or cold neutral enso tend to favor an extremely positive NAO and a western Canada trough and eastern CONUS ridge.  The maps he posted turned out to be dead on for the winter.  They work together yet at that exact time JB had a winter forecast that was almost the exact opposite of what his partner was showing was likely based on the analogs, even though they work together and look at the same analogs.  Which leads to...

4.  As recently as 1-2 weeks ago JB was still hyping a cold ending in March in some form or other.  Then yesterday in his video when he finally admitted defeat on even that front (best news yet if we want cold and snow in March) he cited analogs that show the north Pacific cold pool and the warm SST off South America and in the Gulf and a strong correlation to a warm March.  But 2 weeks ago when he was citing his cold March idea he was talking about those same factors as reasons it would get cold, and now he is using them as excuses why it wont.  Ironically I agree with most of his "excuses" for why he busted only i don't believe he was oblivious to them. 

In summary I think he simply makes the forecast that will sell most then manipulates his way through the season and if it verifies somehow great, and if its even close by pure luck, he spins his way to make it better then it was.  2015 was like that where the locations of the cold and snow weren't even centered where he had it, and the reasons for the cold were totally different then the ones he used to justify his cold snowy forecast, yet he claimed total victory when the ground truth was somewhat close to his forecast even though the pattern was NOTHING like it.  And then in years like this he simply gives the excuses why he busted and moves on.  But I do not think there is ANY doubt anymore that this is simply bias.  He knows exactly what he is doing and its not bias or spin, its LIES. 

Thoughts?

Good God man. That was quite the analysis. I personally have no clue why JB has operated the way he has in recent years. I've heard theories ranging from some sort of energy futures scheme involving social media, to people just thinking he's simply gone completely mad. In the end, who knows? What I do know (and what I find the most frustrating), is that JB used to be really good up until a few years ago.

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My thoughts on JB is that a part of of him has lost it mentally. Almost as though he has flipped out. All the busts and ego hits have broken him down. I would hope he has too much integrity to chalk it up to just lies. No one in their right mind will consistently use historical weather events to compare to every single upcoming potential winter storm. If it's not March 93 or January 96 then it's Feb 79. He is relentless with the huge event comparisons. You have to be a nut to always reference these storms. At some point this winter he mentioned everyone in what is arguably the worst winter pattern we've seen in over 40 years.

Of course he has a cold and snow bias as we all know but he also has too much knowledge and experience to constantly make a fool of himself and embarrass himself. He also has too big of an ego  to purposely put out  ridiculously awful forecasts. My take is that is simply has gone goofy.

 

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

It's pretty simple, PSU. Weenies like us are the ones to blame. Not JB. He has a moral obligation to us to keep hope alive when it's hopeless. To satisfy our demands for cold snowy forecasts. I'm sure it's painful for him to do this. But he's sacrificing his scientific morals and ethics for us. 

You and me and a host of other enthusiests do the same thing in the long range thread. Not exactly the same way of course. But we keep hope alive when hope itself took a 45 caliber bullet between the eyes 3 months ago. We're still discussing cold and snow on 384 hour op panels right now when we both know that we have a better chance at getting sunburn and running the AC than we do getting a warning level snow storm. But we sacrifice our true take on the state of things just like JB does in a much grander fashion to a much larger audience. Sucks we don't get paid for it though. JB has an effen sweet gig. If you and me keep at it long enough we may get paid for it too. 

18z gfs was sweet though wasn't it? Time to tune up the shovels. Palm Sunday looks rockin on the CFS. 

Except we both acknowledged back in december that this winter was likely going to be bad and it was just a matter of how bad. Then we are free of the burden of misleading anyone and can openly "hunt snow" and discuss what we want to see pattern wise and any wild crazy chances without lying to people about the likely outcome. Do you really think it would hurt him if he gave an honest seasonal and long range forecast then did what we do and analyzed the patterns from a "how could we get a big storm" perspective?  To me the big difference is we don't ever lie about what we think is going to happen.   I will look at a pattern and try to discuss where there are opportunities and have a positive perspective but I'm not lying about the probabilities. Even the last week I've said numerous times I'm bearish but that doesn't stop me from noticing a good trend or pointing out how it could work. We are all weenies but we're honest in our assessment and I feel he is not. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

^ I was just poking some fun at weenieism. I hope you at least chuckled a little. Lol

JB is a brand. Would Ford ever say that their latest mustang GT is slower than last year's model? 

That would be like an NFL coach saying "We're going to suck this year,  4-12 at best."

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