Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This could help us reload the pattern after week 2. How accurate are these outlooks? Seems like we will be stuck in the COD for a while and just pinning our hopes it moves into 8-1 towards the tail end of this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: How accurate are these outlooks? Seems like we will be stuck in the COD for a while and just pinning our hopes it moves into 8-1 towards the tail end of this range. It's good that it's in the COD during this part of the cycle. You don't want it going through phases 4-7 trust me. That chart is like the best case scenario. Skip the bad phases and pop back into good. As for accuracy it nailed the last mjo wave but I don't have verification scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 I believe the GFS is going to Phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Just now, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: I believe the GFS is going to Phase Looks close on 500.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Looks close on 500.. So f***ing close man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 I believe it did not. For us I mean. Just another op solution. Less preferred one perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 High pressure keeps trending south. That's not good. Want it up in New England and a system coming in under not sliding out at our latitude. That makes it hard. If the storm is under its suppressed. If it behind the return flow behind the high will warm us. That's not a good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Low tracks right over us from West to east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: High pressure keeps trending south. That's not good. Want it up in New England and a system coming in under not sliding out at our latitude. That makes it hard. If the storm is under its suppressed. If it behind the return flow behind the high will warm us. That's not a good trend. Still 180 out. time for more solutions I suppose. You said earlier suppression is not a real worry. That is appears accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Doesn't really look close to me for a phase. NS shortwave drops down and moves concurrently and then ahead of the the southern and there is quite a bit of separation between the two as well. Doesn't mean that won't change but at this point we would need to see the northern digging deeper and lagging behind the southern. Not even sure we would want to see a phase considering the chances are we would see that run to our north and with the High position now depicted we would probably be SOL except for maybe a little front end action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Op gfs doesn't dig the trough enough so all the threats general end up north of us. The general longwave axis is fine but not amplified enough to get systems under us. Hopefully that trend doesn't show up on the ensembles. Need to see the trough digging into the tn valley not lifting by to our north or dumping into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 12Z CMC parks a 1032 H over Maine, so we get a nice snowfall even with the low running to Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 We just can't get it right this year. Looks like the trend toward a snowy pattern we saw in the long range on Friday is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: We just can't get it right this year. Looks like the trend toward a snowy pattern we saw in the long range on Friday is gone. Every day the ensembles show something different in the long range. That's sort of to be expected, but the model chaos has been at an extreme for sure. Hopefully the 5 day period will eventually balance itself out on guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: This could help us reload the pattern after week 2. EC is similar. The bad news is we traverse through 5,6,7 first. The good news is the MJO forecasts haven't done well this winter especially the GEFS. Also good is it may get towards phase 8 and 1 during peak DC snow climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 18 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Every day the ensembles show something different in the long range. That's sort of to be expected, but the model chaos has been at an extreme for sure. Hopefully the 5 day period will eventually balance itself out on guidance. Specifics will shift around at range but the general larger features haven't been as bad. I think the extraordinary success from range last January plus some of those storms in 2009/10 have given unrealistic expectations of long range guidance. Those all happened in extremely stable blocking patterns with an stj dominant storm track. What's happening this year is more typical. Think back to 2013/14. How many of those snows were locked in more then 72 hours out? I remember most trended significantly in the short ranges. But we didn't complain about the models issues because it was snowing every few days all winter so who cares. When there is no snow and we are frustrated we nitpick everything. To me the shifts run to run on the feb 6 threat are within the envelope of what I would expect in the 6-10 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 13 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said: EC is similar. The bad news is we traverse through 5,6,7 first. The good news is the MJO forecasts haven't done well this winter especially the GEFS. Also good is it may get towards phase 8 and 1 during peak DC snow climo. At least it's pretty weak even on euro in the bad phases. If you avg the two it's muted enough it may not be able to influence the pattern much. It looks to gain amplitude unto 8 and that's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 lol 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 If there's any one thing I'll take away from this years weather and computer watching is that snowfall maps are totally useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 e19 and then right on into spring. We'd all take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 12z GEFS has BN temps for us through the end of the run :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Weenie gefs run. Lots of support for a reasonable event day 7-8. 2-4" type thing. Then a signal for a big storm threat after that. GL ridging holds. Good h5 look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Basically those ensembles say expect between 0-10" of snow over the next two week period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, kurtstack said: Basically those ensembles say expect between 0-10" of snow over the next two week period. I don't see any with 0. And only 2 with under 2". I think the clear consensus is in the 3-6" range. Are they right...that's another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I don't see any with 0. And only 2 with under 2". I think the clear consensus is in the 3-6" range. Are they right...that's another story. haha. i generally round down to zero in the grey regions of the map. sets my expectations more appropriately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don't see any with 0. And only 2 with under 2". I think the clear consensus is in the 3-6" range. Are they right...that's another story. Don't expect the best outcome but don't assume the worst outcome either. That's all we can believe right now. At least we are still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Don't expect the best outcome but don't assume the worst outcome either. That's all we can believe right now. At least we are still in the game. What game? Its more similar to being one of a thousand kids in line for a LeBron autograph. Somebody's gonna get one but will it be you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 19 minutes ago, Paleocene said: 12z GEFS has BN temps for us through the end of the run :-D What amazes me is the teleconnections magnitudes haven't looked all that favorable. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4indices.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 burning question for me is can we finally break into negative territory on the AO for the first time sonce early December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1034mb high over TN at 144hrs on the Euro. This run will probably suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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