Amped Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 264 hour setup is OTS but much better looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 It's getting less boring that's for sure...I like the volatility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 00z GGEM has the storm.. but its a cutter... and hrs 192 to 204 just looks weird with its dual low structure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 GEFS snow mean for the day 8 threat is about 2.5-3". Most members show snow but not many big hitters, a lot of 2-4" type events. After that the GEFS is again really hitting the day 10-15 period hard. Lots of big hitters in that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 ECM=what storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Just now, RedSky said: ECM=what storm The one in Hudsons bay or maybe the one 300 miles east of Nova scotia. 850s too warm anyway. couldn't have asked for a ****tier run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, Amped said: The one in Hudsons bay or maybe the one 300 miles east of Nova scotia. 850s too warm anyway. couldn't have asked for a ****tier run. I expect trends and flips at this range but this run was a complete hard drive wipe start over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: GEFS snow mean for the day 8 threat is about 2.5-3". Most members show snow but not many big hitters, a lot of 2-4" type events. After that the GEFS is again really hitting the day 10-15 period hard. Lots of big hitters in that time period. Big Hitters seem to be always pushed back in time this winter, if you want to call it that. Just too much volatility on the models past four or five days or so. Not reliable for sure. But so far the end result has always been the same this year, so far. We do better with a storm forming in the gulf states instead of these disturbances moving across the middle of the country. Those seem to be very undependable for our latitude this year. Very frustrating. Seems we can't hold on to a storm past 24 hours that is worth tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Gfs big storm is back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 GFS 6z shows a pretty good event next Sunday Monday. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, Ji said: Gfs big storm is back Stinking models. For how long is the question. But we're 7 days away now. Let's see if we can get it to verify this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 It's just ahead of a Great Lakes LP. The race is on. Also it's a Miller B. We'll need luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 7 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Big Hitters seem to be always pushed back in time this winter, if you want to call it that. Just too much volatility on the models past four or five days or so. Not reliable for sure. But so far the end result has always been the same this year, so far. We do better with a storm forming in the gulf states instead of these disturbances moving across the middle of the country. Those seem to be very undependable for our latitude this year. Very frustrating. Seems we can't hold on to a storm past 24 hours that is worth tracking. Not saying this is the case here but I have noticed that for whatever reason over the years that quite often you will see the models lose the signal for a storm for a stretch of time only to bring it back a couple days later. We saw this with the Noreaster we had last week. All the models had a strong signal for a major storm at day 13, lost it completely and then a couple days later come back to the idea. Have only taken a cursory glance into the overnight ensembles yet, so maybe there is a good reason for what we are seeing but still I would give it a day or two to see where we stand before writing anything off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 The 06Z GFS gets really ugly in the long range. Glad it is just an Op and at long range to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 A feature that has become more prominent in recent eps cycles(gefs as well) late in the run is a strong AK trough. Not only is the western US mild, but much of Canada does not look cold either. Without the blocking over GL, that vortex retreats north and its a coast to coast pacific air mass. We are hanging by a thread. Relying on a negative NAO to save us is precarious lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Hours 180 to 186 are all snow in DC and then the column degrades quickly. But by then we have a good 4 to 6 inches on the ground. With this run of the GFS it's a fine line between good and bad. Fortunately we are on the good side of the line... until the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 No two ways about it, the 00Z EPS has taken a major step back from our potential storm next weekend. The good news is, it took a fairly major step towards a fairly significant storm on the follow up roughly 3 days later. Not writing off the first storm by any means but in my mind the second has always been the one with the best potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 GEFS still looks good to me at 500. One little relaxation of a day or 2 but overall its much better than we've been seeing. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: GEFS still looks good to me at 500. One little relaxation of a day or 2 but overall its much better than we've been seeing. Nut It's a workable pattern as is with some potential but as Cape mentioned above the trough through Alaska is flooding the CONUS in the west with warmer PAC air that is bleeding eastward. At this point we have the mean trough in the east which will dampen that somewhat. Would like to see a more pronounced trough and better ridging in the west to give us a more northerly flow then what we see now though. Which is quite possible when you take smoothing into consideration at longer ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 16 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: It's a workable pattern as is with some potential but as Cape mentioned above the trough through Alaska is flooding the CONUS in the west with warmer PAC air that is bleeding eastward. At this point we have the mean trough in the east which will dampen that somewhat. Would like to see a more pronounced trough and better ridging in the west to give us a more northerly flow then what we see now though. Which is quite possible when you take smoothing into consideration at longer ranges. yeah i did notice that, but as has been suggested....a little to far out to get too worked up over. It did recover at the end, so I guess its something to keep an eye on. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 roller coaster continues on this thing. Probably the most useless tool of all time. look how much canada changed in just 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 8 minutes ago, Ji said: Well...there goes epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Well...there goes epic Still trying to understand why he had to post it 3 times. It's almost like he is trying to push people over the ledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Still trying to understand why he had to post it 3 times. It's almost like he is trying to push people over the ledge. Ji still uses a flip phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 That impulse is really diving divi southeastward. Be nice if it ended up further south that predicted and then exploded off the Carolinas tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: That impulse is really diving divi southeastward. Be nice if it ended up further south that predicted and then exploded off the Carolinas tonight. I'm not sure with the fast flow and positive tilt we want it too far south..unless it really explodes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 This could help us reload the pattern after week 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 22 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I'm not sure with the fast flow and positive tilt we want it too far south..unless it really explodes I'd like it to interact with that stalled out front in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Just now, Wonderdog said: I'd like it to interact with that stalled out front in the Atlantic. It's going to be a dynamic but tightly wound little system. If it did bomb out there it would be way too late. You want it to track just southeast if you and trend a little stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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