February Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread

[showmethesnow]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Well then I can tell you why the ensembles show an inch and a half mean.....it's a cutter per the ensembles

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=T850_mslp&runtime=2017013000&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0

Yes, just by looking at that it would suggest a cutter. But it doesn't give you the full picture that you get with individual member placement and track progression. Though at this point the ensembles do admittedly lean towards a cutter the fact is there are many members that suggest something underneath us. The big take away is the fact that there is definite potential setting up. Now whether we score or not is another story.

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's a big storm signal for sure. My one concern for snow now that it's getting closer and some basic pattern signals are being hinted at would be the WAR. The recent runs are swinging the day 7 storm out and not really amplifying it much and it's long gone from the 50/60 space by day 10. Then they pop the dreaded war which vacates the cold ahead of the system. That then enhances the chances of an inland track too. Get cold in front and it's likely to jump to the coast where the baroclinoc zone will be. It's still too far out to worry much about details. The Jan 22 storm last year looked to have temp issues at day 10. The pattern across Canada is good enough leading in to think it cools trend better in that regard. 

These are all valid concerns. At this point I am just happy to see a signal for a big storm and the potential it represents and I will start to sweat the details once the models resolve what they want to do with the day 7 low. And to be honest I really think the models are having issues on resolving that first storm.

[showmethesnow]

14 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I'd take that GFS solution and run with it, 850s barely get above freezing.   Thump --> dryslot --> cold

I would take any solution that sets up the second storm for us. Preferably a solution that contains some snow.  

[kurtstack]

10 day theeat - without a 50/50 low we will be relying on timing and interaction of northern and southern streams.  I would say its a thread the needle event that has a wide range of possibilities at this point.

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Well then I can tell you why the ensembles show an inch and a half mean.....it's a cutter per the ensembles

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=T850_mslp&runtime=2017013000&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0

There are definitely more cutters then I like to see but the mean is washing out conflicting clusters. There are a lot of coastal tracks. But there seem to be more uniformity with the cutters around day 9.5 with timing location and strength. Their also deeper. The coastal track camp is spread out from day 10-11.5. Makes some sense. Trough digs more and storm comes up the coast would be slower then an early phase and cut. Those factors skew the mean. I actually count about a 50/50 split. But not all the coast tracks snow. Some are out to sea. Just like some of the cutters still get some snow front end. Still the inland cluster is troubling but I'm more worried about the war and losing the cold ahead of it then track att. 

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There are definitely more cutters then I like to see but the mean is washing out conflicting clusters. There are a lot of coastal tracks. But there seem to be more uniformity with the cutters around day 9.5 with timing location and strength. Their also deeper. The coastal track camp is spread out from day 10-11.5. Makes some sense. Trough digs more and storm comes up the coast would be slower then an early phase and cut. Those factors skew the mean. I actually count about a 50/50 split. But not all the coast tracks snow. Some are out to sea. Just like some of the cutters still get some snow front end. Still the inland cluster is troubling but I'm more worried about the war and losing the cold ahead of it then track att. 

Didn't really look to hard into the members but I did notice that as well. The quicker the storm the more apt it was to cut. 

The means themselves are somewhat misleading and we saw that with the 12Z runs as well. And as you said with the stronger lows that are cutting the fairly significant camp of coastals are getting lost on the means. The means are a good tool to use but you really need to look into the details as well to get the full picture.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Didn't really look to hard into the members but I did notice that as well. The quicker the storm the more apt it was to cut. 

The means themselves are somewhat misleading and we saw that with the 12Z runs as well. And as you said with the stronger lows that are cutting the fairly significant camp of coastals are getting lost on the means. The means are a good tool to use but you really need to look into the details as well to get the full picture.

The timing difference makes sense. A system that cuts straight to the lakes will get there faster. Think of the starting position. Less distance. Plus the coastal s usually dig more then come up the coast. Larger arc. That alone could be the cause. 

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The timing difference makes sense. A system that cuts straight to the lakes will get there faster. Think of the starting position. Less distance. Plus the coastal s usually dig more then come up the coast. Larger arc. That alone could be the cause. 

 I did understand what you are talking about and the common sense reasoning behind it, it was just extremely poor wording on my part and should have been elaborated on. Or better yet just left unsaid.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The day 6/7 threat has the benefit of 3/4 days of pretty cold temps going in. Overnight lows in teens and low 20s Thursday  through Sunday.  A 3-6 " front end thump would be fine with me especially if it's an appetizer to day 10.

(0z)Looks like Ukie and Euro slide the high off to the east and are flatter at 500mb...while gfs and cmc are diggier and slower to slide that high off.  I'm sure there are other differences but that was one noticable difference. 

How does the euro look in terms of snow?

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

How does the euro look in terms of snow?

Nada 

[showmethesnow]

GEFS has upped the ante on our day 10/11 storm. Mind you these are just rough guesstimates but the 00Z run had roughly 2 inches for that time period and now the 06Z is showing around 4 inches. 3 members now show roughly a foot up up from 1 member on the 00Z.

 

[frd]

Thinking that based on the Pac side and interesting signs of an almost SSW event , we could enter the period near President day weekend to about mid March as the highest potential yet for a SECS.  This is a well known time period for MECS 

Looks like various precursors are lining up to have a major affect on the PV possibly beyond just a displacement by mid Feb, to a little beyond.     

I am a bit excitied by the potential here, but feel anything before Feb 13 th to be non-significant in our area.  The factors we like most most about SECS and MECS, the

- AO and the - NAO may finally show up soon.   

 

[psuhoffman]

59 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

 I did understand what you are talking about and the common sense reasoning behind it, it was just extremely poor wording on my part and should have been elaborated on. Or better yet just left unsaid.

No problem it's hard sometimes on a forum where there are no context clues. I misinterpreted also. 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, frd said:

Thinking that based on the Pac side and interesting signs of an almost SSW event , we could enter the period near President day weekend to about mid March as the highest potential yet for a SECS.  This is a well known time period for MECS 

Looks like various precursors are lining up to have a major affect on the PV possibly beyond just a displacement by mid Feb, to a little beyond.     

I am a bit excitied by the potential here, but feel anything before Feb 13 th to be not be significant in our area.  The factors we like most most about SECS and MECS, the

- AO and the - NAO may finally show up soon.   

 

There are enough good signs long term to think we may just pull off a respectable ending.  The PV shows signs of weakness. Mjo keeps trending stronger into phase 8 towards day 13 or so now. But we're talking way way out. And we have some decent threats on the table in a more reasonable range so while I'm keeping an eye on the tea leaves regarding our end game I'm not going to go too deep into that yet. I'm encouraged that most guidance has a weak PV out in time.  If the mjo signal is real and if the PV weakens then I think we likely get a reload of a good pattern. Those are big ifs. 

[frd]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There are enough good signs long term to think we may just pull off a respectable ending.  The PV shows signs of weakness. Mjo keeps trending stronger into phase 8 towards day 13 or so now. But we're talking way way out. And we have some decent threats on the table in a more reasonable range so while I'm keeping an eye on the tea leaves regarding our end game I'm not going to go too deep into that yet. I'm encouraged that most guidance has a weak PV out in time.  If the mjo signal is real and if the PV weakens then I think we likely get a reload of a good pattern. Those are big ifs. 

All true. Many favorable elements have either not occured, or not occured together,  or if they show up they were opposing one another. 

All the forecast so far for a  - AO in 2017 have been wrong.  I think this time you have a lot going in favor of a - AO later in Feb. and it may have staying power.

I wish the QBO were Easterly, but it appears that this time around it will be overcome by other combined factors. We will see . 

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, frd said:

All true. Many favorable elements have either not occured, or not occured together,  or if they show up they were opposing one another. 

All the forecast so far for a  - AO in 2017 have been wrong.  I think this time you have a lot going in favor of a - AO later in Feb. and it may have staying power.

I wish the QBO were Easterly, but it appears that this time around it will be overcome by other combined factors. We will see . 

Probably need to read up on the QBO but from my limited understanding it is almost impossible to overcome when it is unfavorable. Or am I just wrong in my thinking?

[clskinsfan]

You have to love this mornings GFS run. At least we will have some interesting things to track over the next couple of weeks.

[Bob Chill]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There are enough good signs long term to think we may just pull off a respectable ending.  The PV shows signs of weakness. Mjo keeps trending stronger into phase 8 towards day 13 or so now. But we're talking way way out. And we have some decent threats on the table in a more reasonable range so while I'm keeping an eye on the tea leaves regarding our end game I'm not going to go too deep into that yet. I'm encouraged that most guidance has a weak PV out in time.  If the mjo signal is real and if the PV weakens then I think we likely get a reload of a good pattern. Those are big ifs. 

I normally discount the strat stuff because 90% of the time it's being discussed is because winter isn't going as planned. However, I still check the panels every day. The euro op as been showing a pretty decent warming and displacement for the last 5 days at least. Not just at one level but 50hpa through 10hpa. Same with the gfs. 

The gfs just spit out the first big split of the year. I'm posting this mostly for entertainment but if something like this does happen it would surely raise the stakes with blocking and extended winter.

 

 

 

 

 

[frd]

11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Probably need to read up on the QBO but from my limited understanding it is almost impossible to overcome when it is unfavorable. Or am I just wrong in my thinking?

Well, I believe a Met did a look back on Winters where the QBO was strongly Westerly like this winter and those winters not great for snow .

I know the met Ender, did some nice research on the QBO where he focused on phase change during the winter and how that is bad for snow. 

As for your question about the QBO over-riding the precursors to a SSW event , I read this morning from some folks who know a great deal more about it then me,  that the Westerly QBO could be over come should these precursors actually move forward in time and affect the PV as they think they will.  

 

 

 

 

[mdsnowlover]

18 minutes ago, frd said:

Well, I believe a Met did a look back on Winters where the QBO was strongly Westerly like this winter and those winters not great for snow .

I know the met Ender, did some nice research on the QBO where he focused on phase change during the winter and how that is bad for snow. 

As for your question about the QBO over-riding the precursors to a SSW event , I read this mornig from some folks who know a great deal more about it then me,  that the Westerly QBO could be over come should these precursors actually move forward in time and affect the PV as they think they will.  

 

 

 

 

what was your source of new knowledge???

[WinterWxLuvr]

Think this is probably going to be an interesting week.

[showmethesnow]

25 minutes ago, frd said:

Well, I believe a Met did a look back on Winters where the QBO was strongly Westerly like this winter and those winters not great for snow .

I know the met Ender, did some nice research on the QBO where he focused on phase change during the winter and how that is bad for snow. 

As for your question about the QBO over-riding the precursors to a SSW event , I read this morning from some folks who know a great deal more about it then me,  that the Westerly QBO could be over come should these precursors actually move forward in time and affect the PV as they think they will.  

 

 

 

 

Thanks. Having the very knowledgeable PSU and Chill, as well as some others, has made me very lazy over the years when it comes to researching the different large scale drivers when you are looking beyond 15 days. Of course, I am naturally lazy so maybe I am just using them as an excuse.   

[midatlanticweather]

Now I am truly not smart on this. I see +AO and that did not seem good, but then I see the east coast coastal... and I think that is good!

The video Twitter post: Then read follow up comments.

 

 

[Interstate]

13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Think this is probably going to be an interesting week.

Until the 12z GFS

[Warm Nose]

Isn't it about time to identify the next 10-day threat that that won't verify?

[BTRWx]

22 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Now I am truly not smart on this. I see +AO and that did not seem good, but then I see the east coast coastal... and I think that is good!

The video Twitter post: Then read follow up comments.

 

 

He seems to have been against this pattern for quite some time.

[Bob Chill]

25 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Think this is probably going to be an interesting week.

Shouldn't be boring. 

Euro ens took a dump on the progression from d10-15 last night. AK vortex does the dirty work and fills NA with pac air. Kinda the same thing that happened last week though before backing off on the idea. There's enough ens support for the weekend event to produce something so I'm not going to look beyond it.  Much easier that way. 

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Yes, just by looking at that it would suggest a cutter. But it doesn't give you the full picture that you get with individual member placement and track progression. Though at this point the ensembles do admittedly lean towards a cutter the fact is there are many members that suggest something underneath us. The big take away is the fact that there is definite potential setting up. Now whether we score or not is another story.

 

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

There are definitely more cutters then I like to see but the mean is washing out conflicting clusters. There are a lot of coastal tracks. But there seem to be more uniformity with the cutters around day 9.5 with timing location and strength. Their also deeper. The coastal track camp is spread out from day 10-11.5. Makes some sense. Trough digs more and storm comes up the coast would be slower then an early phase and cut. Those factors skew the mean. I actually count about a 50/50 split. But not all the coast tracks snow. Some are out to sea. Just like some of the cutters still get some snow front end. Still the inland cluster is troubling but I'm more worried about the war and losing the cold ahead of it then track att. 

      Here's the thing. Every time this winter that there has been talk of a decent storm and I have posted the ensemble mean to support that the ensembles don't support a snow storm for us, I've had similar responses regarding the individual members. Yet, no storm. I think the whole process is a little simpler than you. Do the ensembles support a big storm and, if so, what kind....rain, mixed, or snow? Right now, the ensembles support a big storm, but with an ensemble snow mean of 1.5", that's pretty paltry. Hence, the ensembles currently support either a mixed, or mainly rain storm for us. It really is that simple. With so many ensemble members, you will always find some that support snow. But the mean does not, and by using the ensembles in this manner as I suggest, there will be far less false hopes imho.

[stormtracker]

14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Shouldn't be boring. 

Euro ens took a dump on the progression from d10-15 last night. AK vortex does the dirty work and fills NA with pac air. Kinda the same thing that happened last week though before backing off on the idea. There's enough ens support for the weekend event to produce something so I'm not going to look beyond it.  Much easier that way. 

That's the ticket.  The only one I'm looking at is the weekend deal.  This "wave after the next wave after the next" is for the birds.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

That's the ticket.  The only one I'm looking at is the weekend deal.  This "wave after the next wave after the next" is for the birds.

Agreed 100%. Let the GFS be right with either its 0Z or 6Z run and then call it a winter....of sorts.