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February Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread


North Balti Zen

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3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

wont verify...no way no how... but I can give you one guess who might use this as weather propaganda on twitter.  First initial J...

...B put out these maps in late November for the month of Dec.  Looked similar. That worked out well right? 

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15 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

wont verify...no way no how... but I can give you one guess who might use this as weather propaganda on twitter.  First initial J...

Yea it's amazing how flawed that output is. Even in a bad run it will typically show an average of 12" over 45 days in the winter and good runs show 40. If those things were right we would average 75" a year. 

Almost like he programmed them himself. Every time someone in Canada sneezes facing south we get a foot of snow. Somehow even in our best years it still over predicts snow. Kinda like someone else. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

the real threat is what its ejecting from the west day 10.  If that high over the lakes gets locked in behind the PV lobe over eastern Canada that could be a threat.  The boundary is starting off far enough south to keep us in play if the system doesn't amp too much.  Its coming out pretty deep so the threat is definitely a cutter over suppressed IMO but the cold is in place and its not racing out like in past setups and we have some lower heights to our northeast instead of that crap WAR that has allowed our highs to race off to the east before.  Its doable.  

Yeah, I saw that, but I just can't muster any energy for something at that range.  

If it gets to 7, I'll be all in.

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10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

So, philosophical question.....why is public money being spent on such a useless product?

IMHO- snowfall output was never the intent of any long range model and having that output is just a novelty and far from a tool. Long range climate models are meant to basically predict general AN/BN temps and precip in a very general sense over a long period of time. I can almost guarantee that anyone who works at CPC or any other climate prediction company pays no attention to output like that. Media based long range prediction companies will use anything to sensationalize weather. I fault mets on FB or wxbell or wherever that kind of stuff is posted for public view. It's misleading and dumb but anyone who competes for clicks/views/votes whatever will do anything and everything to win a popularity contest and not a sound prediction contest. 

Good long range forecasts are boring as hell. Just like the CPC long lead temp and precip probability maps....boooooring....but true to the fact that we can't predict anything at monthly leads other than general probabilities. That stuff doesn't sell though so gotta dig up juice elsewhere and pimp it out like a whore. 

 

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10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Yeah, I saw that, but I just can't muster any energy for something at that range.  

If it gets to 7, I'll be all in.

Philosophical answer,  the problem isn't usually what the government is doing but how crappy they are doing it. And the fault is usually not with the civil servant working diligently but with crappy politics at the top of the decision making process leaving them executing a flawed action plan. 

Probably they realize it's flawed but constant bickering over what to do and fund has left them incapable of either fixing or terminating it. 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

IMHO- snowfall output was never the intent of any long range model and having that output is just a novelty and far from a tool. Long range climate models are meant to basically predict general AN/BN temps and precip in a very general sense over a long period of time. I can almost guarantee that anyone who works at CPC or any other climate prediction company pays no attention to output like that. 

 

Totally agree but it's pretty flawed in those more critical outputs also. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Totally agree but it's pretty flawed in those more critical outputs also. 

It does a good job late month for the following month. I'll give credit where credit is due. Beyond that, just stick with the euro products and accept that long range accuracy is still a few decades away from being accurate enough to provide true value. 

 

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14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It does a good job late month for the following month. I'll give credit where credit is due. Beyond that, just stick with the euro products and accept that long range accuracy is still a few decades away from being accurate enough to provide true value. 

 

Very reasonable. So should we be excited the cfs has locked in on a cold blocky look the last several days or are we still not at the late month period you refer too?

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12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Very reasonable. So should we be excited the cfs has locked in on a cold blocky look the last several days or are we still not at the late month period you refer too?

I mostly just look at the last 5-7 runs of the month and see if they are *relatively* consistent. It's never a bad thing having good looks before hand of course but if it all flips the last few days of the month then you can worry at whatever level you feel comfortable in using the CFS. lol. Once we're into the first week of the month it's back to tracking d10-15 on the gefs/eps and it's hard to even remember what the CFS showed. lol

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I mostly just look at the last 5-7 runs of the month and see if they are *relatively* consistent. It's never a bad thing having good looks before hand of course but if it all flips the last few days of the month then you can worry at whatever level you feel comfortable in using the CFS. lol. Once we're into the first week of the month it's back to tracking d10-15 on the gefs/eps and it's hard to even remember what the CFS showed. lol

True dat. Good run of the EPS just now imo long range. 

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