showmethesnow Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: I think 1-3.. maybe 4. The potential of a couple inches is big given the recent crap period. I am good with that. Although like Bob said, one or more of the Meso models will probably "NAM" us. Ratios for the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 If anything, gfs/cmc have a decent gradient look from the maybe clipper onwards. Pac moisture up and over the top of the ridge out west streaming along. No a big storm pattern as shear will be in play the whole time but any embedded shortwave has a chance in this area. The long lead right now means op model shortwaves are just darts in the flow but as time closes on each one we may have something to discuss in the med-short ranges. Enough cold hp over the top where even a west track isn't guaranteed rain. Best of all...it happens inside of 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I like it. It was never going to be anything substantial. We both know these subtle little vorts can do neat things on models at very short leads. Especially once in meso range. The real fun comes Saturday when the RGEM drops 2-4 on us. lol We really need this to boost morale around here. I'm talking a basic 1 to 2 incher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: We really need this to boost morale around here. I'm talking a basic 1 to 2 incher. that's it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: that's it? RR has hacked mappy's account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If anything, gfs/cmc have a decent gradient look from the maybe clipper onwards. Pac moisture up and over the top of the ridge out west streaming along. No a big storm pattern as shear will be in play the whole time but any embedded shortwave has a chance in this area. The long lead right now means op model shortwaves are just darts in the flow but as time closes on each one we may have something to discuss in the med-short ranges. Enough cold hp over the top where even a west track isn't guaranteed rain. Best of all...it happens inside of 10 days. Looking at the ridging in the east I would think we would be talking about a front end type deal with the lows passing to our west through day 10, at least per today's op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We really need this to boost morale around here. I'm talking a basic 1 to 2 incher. 5 minutes ago, mappy said: that's it? Yes i have. Wait until i hack your account, the fun will really start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 GEFS look good again. Events are scattered throughout time so no # window but overall supportive of getting the skunk off in some fashion. That's 4 gefs runs in a row and the eps looks decent as well. The threat window is inside of 10 days and extends beyond. Probably the best length period we've seen all year. A mini wave train of sorts but coming in from the pac nw so general caveats....possible west tracks...moisture starved...blah blah. My optimism level is up though. The general pattern looks to have some legs for once. Enough to give us more than a one and done shot anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS look good again. Events are scattered throughout time so no # window but overall supportive of getting the skunk off in some fashion. That's 4 gefs runs in a row and the eps looks decent as well. The threat window is inside of 10 days and extends beyond. Probably the best length period we've seen all year. A mini wave train of sorts but coming in from the pac nw so general caveats....possible west tracks...moisture starved...blah blah. My optimism level is up though. The general pattern looks to have some legs for once. Enough to give us more than a one and done shot anyways. I like that the GEFS mean at the end of teh run snowfall wise at DCA is 5-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: What about the potential light event early Monday? It's still there. Trough is a touch sharper and deeper which is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 22 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 12z ukie at hour 144 has a stronger low coming out of the west ...maybe ejecting more energy then cmc and gfs . Extrapolating doesn't appear it would cut either . That would be the threat that the CMC and GFS suppress around day 7 and it is not going to cut, given the timing and the suppression of the PV to its north at that time that would either shear out, stay south, or be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS look good again. Events are scattered throughout time so no # window but overall supportive of getting the skunk off in some fashion. That's 4 gefs runs in a row and the eps looks decent as well. The threat window is inside of 10 days and extends beyond. Probably the best length period we've seen all year. A mini wave train of sorts but coming in from the pac nw so general caveats....possible west tracks...moisture starved...blah blah. My optimism level is up though. The general pattern looks to have some legs for once. Enough to give us more than a one and done shot anyways. I thought this was an excellent GEFS run. Like you said a workable pattern throughout and cold pretty much wall to wall. Even towards the end it gets a little ambiguous with H5 height anomalies but its still cold to day 16 and showing a general support for our source region to be from Canada not the Pacific. This doesn't look like a big storm pattern but one that we should be able to get some snow in. We are looking at perhaps 5 threats total in the 16 day period and no reason to think one of them can't put down SOMETHING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Some analysis of the op GFS and GEFS show why the day 10 system has decent potential even if the op shows a NW track right now. We often see a nice pretty op run but when we lok at the h5 there are reasons to be skeptical. This is actually a pretty decent H5 setup. Most importantly is the confluence to our north for a chance. This system will be tracking into a high pressure with cold in place and some decent blocking to suppress the flow. The caveat being the h5 setup being accurate but if this look is close we would have a shot regardless of what the op shows on storm track at this range. The GEFS supports the general h5 ideas above and if anything would argue a further south track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Well at least the euro gives us snow chances that are within 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 23 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Well at least the euro gives us snow chances that are within 10 days. I just assumed it sucked because no one commented on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I just assumed it sucked because no one commented on it And the fact that it's been THE party pooper (more like party of NO) of the season so far, lol You just expect it...pleasant surprise this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: I just assumed it sucked because no one commented on it its horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 7 minutes ago, Ji said: its horrible So not good or just pretty bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: So not good or just pretty bad? Consider the source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 16 minutes ago, Ji said: its horrible I wish I hadn't seen it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: I wish I hadn't seen it lol EPS doesn't support the OPS in the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: EPS doesn't support the OPS in the least. Keep the good news coming Ralphie tell us the OP is unpossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 what the hell happened today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ji said: what the hell happened today? 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Really big signal for very cold wx super bowl weekend with a big snow event to cap it off. Jerry re EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Apparently the Euro does have snow from the clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 EPS did not seem that bad to me. Snowfall wise, it jumped up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Apparently the Euro does have snow from the clipper? 2-3 inches? Hmmm... guess I didn't look as close as I should have ETA: Ah... its from January 31st 12z to Feb 5th 12z time period... so 12z TUES is the starting time on Maue's map he posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 9 minutes ago, Ji said: what the hell happened today? Your winter got abbreviated down to two weeks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: 2-3 inches? Hmmm... guess I didn't look as close as I should have ETA: Ah... its from January 31st 12z to Feb 5th 12z time period... so 12z TUES is the starting time on Maue's map he posted Cohen = Bastardi. RM--closing in on both. Just my opinion. Who am I but a hit and run poster. Don't mind me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 the euro is not 2-3 inches for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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